|
Hand Analyses 13th December, 2006
We start the set with a cut-and-thrust part-score battle. We delve into the actions of North, South and West in the Bidding Quiz, so here let’s look at East’s bidding. Yes, nice Double! West’s Double was merely competing and inviting East to the party. Partner has shown a good hand, it looks like the opponents are in no better than a 4-4 fit, they may have trouble making this one. True, Double here has the obvious potential down-side (of -470). Also, the opponents are not vulnerable, and the difference between down one doubled and undoubled may not be that great. Then again, maybe E-W can beat it two tricks. Yes, the Double of 3♣ is somewhat speculative, but we think that it’s a good bet.
On lead against 3♣, West will remember the time-honored advice about not leading unsupported Aces and not leading a singleton trump. But he has to lead something and our own guess would be the A♦ and a Diamond continuation. That’s not such a wonderful start for the defense, but they will still prevail as follows: Opening lead of A♦ Diamond continuation, won by Declarer’s King Q♣, ducked by East J♣, won by the King (Declarer cannot spare Dummy’s Ace) Club return, won by Declarer Spade to Dummy’s King Heart Ten, run around to West’s Ace Q♦, ruffed by Declarer At this point the defense has 3 tricks, and when West gets in with the A♠ he can lead another Diamond, promoting a trump trick.
A Weak Two with a 7-card suit? Somewhat unorthodox, but on rare occasions it seems like the right thing to do. That suit is altogether too skimpy for a Red vs White 3♦ opening, but, on the other hand, it’s a shame not to get it into the auction somehow or other. We’d say that a bad 7-card suit is about as good as a half-decent 6-card suit, so why not? Last week we had a 5-card Weak Two, this week it’s a 7-card Weak Two, what’s The Wednesday Game coming to?
After 2♦, North’s response of 3♠ showed a Feature and at least a reasonable hand. But, suppose that we were playing Ogust, where our responses are: 3♣ Bad hand, bad suit 3♦ Bad hand, good suit 3♥ Good hand, bad suit 3♠ Good hand, good suit We’d say that South is actually “middling hand, middling suit”, so the convention does not offer us particularly appetizing choices. We’d bid 3♥ as the best available compromise. For more on Feature, Ogust, and the alternatives, please see our link.
East will probably lead a Spade, ducked on the board, won by West’s Jack. The Q♠ is played, won by East’s Ace, followed by a 3rd round of Spades won on the board. With the Diamonds 2-2, Declarer has 10 cashing tricks at this point, but there’s a chance for a nice play. Yes, Declarer must cash his A♣ before running the Diamonds! In the 3-card entry, East will be squeezed in Hearts and Clubs and that will be 11 tricks for Declarer. Note that the squeeze does not operate without cashing the A♣ early (the so-called Vienna Coup).
It was obliging of the defense to cash two Spades and tighten up the position so that the squeeze could take effect. Is it better for East to duck the Q♠ continuation at Trick Two? No, it’s even worse! Dummy’s K♠ wins the trick, as before the A♣ is cashed, and 7 Diamonds are played. East is caught in a progressive squeeze now! He must come down to 3 cards, and is squeezed in 3 suits: - If he bares the K♥, Declarer will score two extra Heart tricks - If he throws his Spades, Dummy’s Nine will be good, and when that card is played, East is squeezed for the second time - If he throws his K♣, the J♣ is cashed and again East is squeezed for the second time. In all cases it’s 12 tricks for Declarer.
The way to hold Declarer to 10 tricks is for East to shift to a Heart or a Club at Trick Two, but that’s not an obvious defense. From West’s point of view, East might have the Ax of Diamonds, in which case it is essential to continue Spades and knock out Dummy’s entry.
South has an awkward choice of opening bid, as discussed in the Bidding Quiz. But there appears to be no easy solution to this hand for N-S, they have a combined 23 HCP’s and no making contract above the one-level.
The play in 2♣ will be pretty miserable for Declarer, even with a helping Spade opening lead. The T♠ is covered by the Queen and the Ace. Now, a Diamond to West’s Queen, then A♦, and a Diamond ruff, and that will be 6 tricks for the defense. If West somehow finds a Heart opening lead, things are worse, it’ll be down two.
South was too good for a preemptive 3♣ response, not good enough for a cue-bid of 2♠ (showing a limit raise or better), so her plan was to raise to 2♣ and later compete to 3♣. However, things have gotten too high when the bidding gets back to South and the final contract is 3♠.
Against 3♠, let’s say that the defense cashes two Clubs to start things off. Now it is essential for the defense not to break open the Diamonds, that will allow Declarer to set up Heart pitches on the Diamonds and escape with 9 tricks. If the defense can avoid that trap then it’s down one.
South’s 4♣ was Leaping Michaels, a useful device against Weak Twos. South’s bid shows Clubs and Spades, typically 5-5 with a good hand. West knew that he was going to 5♥ eventually, so he did it immediately, applying maximum pressure … there was no point in bidding 4♥ and then 5♥, that would only make life easier for the opponents. Of course, North would have done better to pass 5♥, but it’s hard to pass when one has undisclosed 5-card support for Partner’s suit … also, there is a double fit, another reason to bid.
Ten tricks are available in Spades … and also in Hearts, provided that Declarer guesses to drop the K♥ (he should, there’s no reason to buck the odds).
See how much easier it is for N-S if West bids a pusillanimous 4♥ over 4♣? North bids 4♠, and now, if West belatedly pushes on to 5♥, North can pass with an easy mind, having already shown her support and South can double (though she might be tempted to try 5♠).
First, let’s suppose that the featured N-S are playing Cappelletti over their 1NT opening, and that North doubles to show a good hand. The bid is hardly ideal, it’s easy to imagine how, defending 1NT doubled, North might lead a low Spade and watch Declarer score a Spade, a Heart and 5 Diamonds, when N-S are cold for 4♠! But the vulnerability makes the Double extra tempting, and, anyway, there aren’t any good alternatives playing Cappelletti. East’s Redouble was a run-out to a minor suit and when that minor turned out to be Diamonds, South had an easy Double. Defending 2♦ doubled, the defense should score 9 tricks and that will be +1100 for N-S!
Next, how would things go if N-S were playing DONT? There will be no +1100 for the DONT players, they do not have a penalty Double at their disposal, so we can see the auction going one of two ways: West North East South West North East South Pass Pass Pass Pass 1NT 2♣ Pass 2♦ 1NT 2NT Pass 3♦ Pass 2♠ Pass Pass Pass 3♠ Pass Pass Pass Pass In the first auction, North takes the low road, planning to play in 2♣ or 2♠. The second auction is somewhat more interesting. North’s 2NT bid says “I have a very good hand with distribution (typically a two-suiter), maybe we have game”. When North bids 3♠, South knows that her Partner has the black suits, neither of which she has any help for, so, although she has some values, she decides to pass. As it happens, 4♠ is a fortunate make … Diamond lead won by Dummy’s Ace, Club finesse, cash A♣, ruff a Club, lead a Heart up … well, maybe not that fortunate, with all the E-W cards known to be with West, 4♠ merely requires 3-3 Clubs.
A fairly straightforward hand, E-W would be most remiss if they didn’t play this one is 2♠ or 3♠. That will be +140 for E-W.
Do you play Support Doubles? If so, do you make an exception for this one specific auction? The danger here is that N-S might miss a 4-4 Heart fit … South might not be strong enough to bid 2♥ over 1♠ (that would show Reverse strength) … and North might get crowded out by the opponent’s’ Spade bids. The solution is a Snapdragon Double by South of 1♠ … it simply says “I have 4 Hearts”.
East’s 2♥ was game-forcing, and West chose to rebid his strong Spades rather than introduce those feeble Diamonds. Now, East preferred 2NT to rebidding his Hearts (see Bidding Quiz) and 3NT was reached.
Against 3NT, we’d expect South to lead a Diamond, to North’s Jack and Declarer’s Queen. The chances of Declarer picking up the Heart suit for no losers are remote … the best play to do that is to lead the Q♥, hoping that South started with Kx … if South covers, Declarer then finesses against North’s hoped-for Ten. But the chances of this working are about 10%, and additionally that line of play blocks the Heart suit … Declarer would hate to lose the finesse, get a Club through losing to South’s King or Queen, and then get a Spade shift.
So, we’d suggest playing a low Heart to the Ace and a Heart back, won by South’s King. At this point, Declarer is cold for 11 tricks, whichever suit South returns. If South returns a minor, Declarer cannot go wrong for 11 tricks … if Declarer passively exits a Heart, Declarer has the time to set up his 11th trick in Diamonds. The only return that will test Declarer’s nerves is a Spade! The finesse is highly dangerous, if it loses the AK♠ will be stranded on the board … so, the prudent play is to take the AK♠ and settle for 10 tricks.
Playing a 2/1 Game Forcing system, is the West hand worth a 2♦ bid? Much depends on the partnership style of opening bids, please see the Bidding Quiz. This particular E-W partnership were obviously playing fairly light opening bids, causing West to draw in his horns a little, and allowing E-W to stop short of the Heart game, where there are 4 top losers. As South, how do you set about making sure that your side gets those 4 tricks? Do you lead a Spade or a Diamond? We’d say neither, let’s lead the K♥ and take a look at Dummy. When that Dummy goes down, it’s a scary sight, what next? Yes, we shift to a Spade, in case Declarer’s losers are going away on Diamonds or Clubs. Which Spade? Yes, the King! If Declarer has the Ace we surely have not lost anything by playing the King. And if Partner has the Ace we have made her life so much easier by leading the King! No need for her to agonize about whether to insert the Ten or fly with the Ace.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
