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Hand Analyses 13th December, 2006
We start the set with a cut-and-thrust part-score battle. We delve into the actions of North, South and West in the Bidding Quiz, so here let’s look at East’s bidding. Yes, nice Double! West’s Double was merely competing and inviting East to the party. Partner has shown a good hand, it looks like the opponents are in no better than a 4-4 fit, they may have trouble making this one. True, Double here has the obvious potential down-side (of -470). Also, the opponents are not vulnerable, and the difference between down one doubled and undoubled may not be that great. Then again, maybe E-W can beat it two tricks. Yes, the Double of 3♣ is somewhat speculative, but we think that it’s a good bet.
On lead against 3♣, West will remember the time-honored advice about not leading unsupported Aces and not leading a singleton trump. But he has to lead something and our own guess would be the A♦ and a Diamond continuation. That’s not such a wonderful start for the defense, but they will still prevail as follows: Opening lead of A♦ Diamond continuation, won by Declarer’s King Q♣, ducked by East J♣, won by the King (Declarer cannot spare Dummy’s Ace) Club return, won by Declarer Spade to Dummy’s King Heart Ten, run around to West’s Ace Q♦, ruffed by Declarer At this point the defense has 3 tricks, and when West gets in with the A♠ he can lead another Diamond, promoting a trump trick.
A Weak Two with a 7-card suit? Somewhat unorthodox, but on rare occasions it seems like the right thing to do. That suit is altogether too skimpy for a Red vs White 3♦ opening, but, on the other hand, it’s a shame not to get it into the auction somehow or other. We’d say that a bad 7-card suit is about as good as a half-decent 6-card suit, so why not? Last week we had a 5-card Weak Two, this week it’s a 7-card Weak Two, what’s The Wednesday Game coming to?
After 2♦, North’s response of 3♠ showed a Feature and at least a reasonable hand. But, suppose that we were playing Ogust, where our responses are: 3♣ Bad hand, bad suit 3♦ Bad hand, good suit 3♥ Good hand, bad suit 3♠ Good hand, good suit We’d say that South is actually “middling hand, middling suit”, so the convention does not offer us particularly appetizing choices. We’d bid 3♥ as the best available compromise. For more on Feature, Ogust, and the alternatives, please see our link.
East will probably lead a Spade, ducked on the board, won by West’s Jack. The Q♠ is played, won by East’s Ace, followed by a 3rd round of Spades won on the board. With the Diamonds 2-2, Declarer has 10 cashing tricks at this point, but there’s a chance for a nice play. Yes, Declarer must cash his A♣ before running the Diamonds! In the 3-card end-game East will be squeezed in Hearts and Clubs and that will be 11 tricks for Declarer. Note that the squeeze does not operate without cashing the A♣ early (the so-called Vienna Coup).
It was obliging of the defense to cash two Spades and tighten up the position so that the squeeze could take effect. Is it better for East to duck the Q♠ continuation at Trick Two? No, it’s even worse! Dummy’s K♠ wins the trick, as before the A♣ is cashed, and 7 Diamonds are played. East is caught in a progressive squeeze now! He must come down to 3 cards, and is squeezed in 3 suits: - If he bares the K♥, Declarer will score two extra Heart tricks - If he throws his Spades, Dummy’s Nine will be good, and when that card is played, East is squeezed for the second time - If he throws his K♣, the J♣ is cashed and again East is squeezed for the second time. In all cases it’s 12 tricks for Declarer.
The way to hold Declarer to 10 tricks is for East to shift to a Heart or a Club at Trick Two, but that’s not an obvious defense. From West’s point of view, East might have the Ax of Diamonds, in which case it is essential to continue Spades and knock out Dummy’s entry.
South has an awkward choice of opening bid, as discussed in the Bidding Quiz. But there appears to be no easy solution to this hand for N-S, they have a combined 23 HCP’s and no making contract above the one-level.
The play in 2♣ will be pretty miserable for Declarer, even with a helping Spade opening lead. The T♠ is covered by the Queen and the Ace. Now, a Diamond to West’s Queen, then A♦, and a Diamond ruff, and that will be 6 tricks for the defense. If West somehow finds a Heart opening lead, things are worse, it’ll be down two.
South was too good for a preemptive 3♣ response, not good enough for a cue-bid of 2♠ (showing a limit raise or better), so her plan was to raise to 2♣ and later compete to 3♣. However, things have gotten too high when the bidding gets back to South and the final contract is 3♠.
Against 3♠, let’s say that the defense cashes two Clubs to start things off. Now it is essential for the defense not to break open the Diamonds, that will allow Declarer to set up Heart pitches on the Diamonds and escape with 9 tricks. If the defense can avoid that trap then it’s down one.
South’s 4♣ was Leaping Michaels, a useful device against Weak Twos. South’s bid shows Clubs and Spades, typically 5-5 with a good hand. West knew that he was going to 5♥ eventually, so he did it immediately, applying maximum pressure … there was no point in bidding 4♥ and then 5♥, that would only make life easier for the opponents. Of course, North would have done better to pass 5♥, but it’s hard to pass when one has undisclosed 5-card support for Partner’s suit … also, there is a double fit, another reason to bid.
Ten tricks are available in Spades … and also in Hearts, provided that Declarer guesses to drop the K♥ (he should, there’s no reason to buck the odds).
See how much easier it is for N-S if West bids a pusillanimous 4♥ over 4♣? North bids 4♠, and now, if West belatedly pushes on to 5♥, North can pass with an easy mind, having already shown her support and South can double (though she might be tempted to try 5♠).
First, let’s suppose that the featured N-S are playing Cappelletti over their 1NT opening, and that North doubles to show a good hand. The bid is hardly ideal, it’s easy to imagine how, defending 1NT doubled, North might lead a low Spade and watch Declarer score a Spade, a Heart and 5 Diamonds, when N-S are cold for 4♠! But the vulnerability makes the Double extra tempting, and, anyway, there aren’t any good alternatives playing Cappelletti. East’s Redouble was a run-out to a minor suit and when that minor turned out to be Diamonds, South had an easy Double. Defending 2♦ doubled, the defense should score 9 tricks and that will be +1100 for N-S!
Next, how would things go if N-S were playing DONT? There will be no +1100 for the DONT players, they do not have a penalty Double at their disposal, so we can see the auction going one of two ways: West North East South West North East South Pass Pass Pass Pass 1NT 2♣ Pass 2♦ 1NT 2NT Pass 3♦ Pass 2♠ Pass Pass Pass 3♠ Pass Pass Pass Pass In the first auction, North takes the low road, planning to play in 2♣ or 2♠. The second auction is somewhat more interesting. North’s 2NT bid says “I have a very good hand with distribution (typically a two-suiter), maybe we have game”. When North bids 3♠, South knows that her Partner has the black suits, neither of which she has any help for, so, although she has some values, she decides to pass. As it happens, 4♠ is a fortunate make … Diamond lead won by Dummy’s Ace, Club finesse, cash A♣, ruff a Club, lead a Heart up … well, maybe not that fortunate, with all the E-W cards known to be with West, 4♠ merely requires 3-3 Clubs.
A fairly straightforward hand, E-W would be most remiss if they didn’t play this one is 2♠ or 3♠. That will be +140 for E-W.
Do you play Support Doubles? If so, do you make an exception for this one specific auction? The danger here is that N-S might miss a 4-4 Heart fit … South might not be strong enough to bid 2♥ over 1♠ (that would show Reverse strength) … and North might get crowded out by the opponent’s’ Spade bids. The solution is a Snapdragon Double by South of 1♠ … it simply says “I have 4 Hearts”.
East’s 2♥ was game-forcing, and West chose to rebid his strong Spades rather than introduce those feeble Diamonds. Now, East preferred 2NT to rebidding his Hearts (see Bidding Quiz) and 3NT was reached.
Against 3NT, we’d expect South to lead a Diamond, to North’s Jack and Declarer’s Queen. The chances of Declarer picking up the Heart suit for no losers are remote … the best play to do that is to lead the Q♥, hoping that South started with Kx … if South covers, Declarer then finesses against North’s hoped-for Ten. But the chances of this working are about 10%, and additionally that line of play blocks the Heart suit … Declarer would hate to lose the finesse, get a Club through losing to South’s King or Queen, and then get a Spade shift.
So, we’d suggest playing a low Heart to the Ace and a Heart back, won by South’s King. At this point, Declarer is cold for 11 tricks, whichever suit South returns. If South returns a minor, Declarer cannot go wrong for 11 tricks … if Declarer passively exits a Heart, Declarer has the time to set up his 11th trick in Diamonds. The only return that will test Declarer’s nerves is a Spade! The finesse is highly dangerous, if it loses the AK♠ will be stranded on the board … so, the prudent play is to take the AK♠ and settle for 10 tricks.
Playing a 2/1 Game Forcing system, is the West hand worth a 2♦ bid? Much depends on the partnership style of opening bids, please see the Bidding Quiz. This particular E-W partnership were obviously playing fairly light opening bids, causing West to draw in his horns a little, and allowing E-W to stop short of the Heart game, where there are 4 top losers. As South, how do you set about making sure that your side gets those 4 tricks? Do you lead a Spade or a Diamond? We’d say neither, let’s lead the K♥ and take a look at Dummy. When that Dummy goes down, it’s a scary sight, what next? Yes, we shift to a Spade, in case Declarer’s losers are going away on Diamonds or Clubs. Which Spade? Yes, the King! If Declarer has the Ace we surely have not lost anything by playing the King. And if Partner has the Ace we have made her life so much easier by leading the King! No need for her to agonize about whether to insert the Ten or fly with the Ace.
North had a pretty good hand for her 2♥ bid, but she was wise to hold back, that K♣ under the Club bidder was certainly a dubious value. However, when Partner invited game, how could she refuse?
Deep Finesse says that Declarer can make 11 tricks in Hearts and Deep Finesse is always right. But can and should are not exactly the same and in real life making 11 tricks will be quite an achievement, at least on the lead of the J♣. East ducks the opening lead, of course, and Declarer wins her Queen. Now, it seems completely normal to draw trumps (thankfully, they split 3-2) and hope that the Diamonds are 3-3 or the Ten is doubleton. When this does not happen, it’s 10 tricks only. The route to 11 tricks is for Declarer to play East to hold ATxx in Diamonds, and it’s far from obvious that she should.
We would say that West had an interesting choice of bids over 2♣, and that E-W had an interesting “partnership agreement situation” after North’s Double of 3♣. For more on both of these please see the Bidding Quiz.
There’s not much to the play in this one, call it +140 for E-W.
Nothing to the auction, and precious little to the play. East will no doubt be persuaded to lead a major on this auction and a Spade certainly looks safer than a Heart. Declarer now makes 9 tricks by guessing the Q♣ correctly, and then knocking out the A♥ to establish a Heart trick. Any clear-cut clues for the Club guess? None that we can see … happy guessing!
We asked around on this one, “What would you bid with the West hand over 4♠?” The consensus was 5♥, and the logic was much the same that we encountered on Board 5 (as North), the general feeling being that we shouldn’t conceal such splendid support. Well, we beg to differ, the hand has no ruffing values, weak trumps, and just as much defense as offense. We’d double 4♠ … it could be hopelessly wrong on some hands, but here it happens to be right!
West leads a 4th best Spade against 3NT, East’s Jack forcing South’s King. Despite 27 HCP’s, there are only 5 top tricks with lots of work to be done to reach 9. Furthermore, if East gets in and leads another Spade through South could be down in a hurry. It seems unlikely that this contract will make if East has the A♣ and if Spades are 5-2, so Declarer might as well bite the bullet and play a low Club towards the board at Trick Two. West does best to duck, the King wins, and the first hurdle is successfully cleared. Next, comes the Diamond finesse, which loses, but at least it has the benefit of being into the safe hand. Back comes a Spade, and now Declarer is up to 7 tricks, which becomes 8 when the Diamonds break. The only chance of a 9th is the risky Heart finesse, and when that works and the suit also breaks it’s a surprising 10 tricks.
When West gets in with the Q♦, does he do better to exit safely with a Diamond (rather than a Spade)? No, it’s still 10 tricks, Declarer can score a second Club instead of the second Spade.
South’s leap to 3NT was based on a source of tricks rather than on any specific point count. West will lead a Spade, no doubt, won by East’s Ace. Now, it makes no difference whether East continues Spades, or whether he shifts to Clubs … either way the defense can take just 4 tricks. It takes the improbable opening lead of the A♣ to beat 3NT.
Against 2NT, East will lead the J♠ (or the Ten if his side plays “0 or 2 higher” leads), and the defense will take the first 4 tricks (Declarer and Dummy pitching Diamonds). The defense can arrange for either player to win the 4th Spade, and a red suit shift from East or West would give Declarer an easy time, she’ll come to 8 tricks one way or the other.
The shift that makes Declarer really earn her +120 is a Club. Please see Play Problem # 104.
N-S were playing Support Doubles (and Redoubles), so North’s 2♠ guaranteed 4-card support (with only three she would redouble).
How about South’s 3♦ bid? Yes, it was forcing, a game-try in Spades, not a suggestion for a better part-score contract. We’d say that South is very close to bidding 4♠ directly over 2♠ … the fit in Partner’s suit and the shortness in Hearts must count for something.
As it happens 3♠ is high enough. West leads the A♣, and shifts to a trump, East’s Ten forcing Declarer’s Ace. Now, a low Heart gives West two losing options: - if West flies with the A♥, he can safely continue with trumps, but Declarer will play the K♠ and now East’s K♥ is now exposed to a ruffing finesse … in fact, with East’s Heart Nine also coming down, Declarer can come to no fewer than 10 tricks. - West does better to play low on the Heart, allowing East’s King to win the trick … however, East cannot continue the trump attack without sacrifices his trump trick, and whatever he does Declarer will come to 9 tricks.
West’s bid was the Gambling 3NT, showing a solid minor suit (usually 7 of them). In first or second seat it’s usual to play that the bid denies any high cards outside the long suit … in third or fourth it’s permissible to have a few outside values.
Against the Gambling 3NT it’s customary to lay down an Ace to take a look at Dummy, and that’s surely what North will do here. When Dummy goes down, North will be able to count 9 tricks for Declarer. Naturally, she will shift at Trick Two, but it will not be obvious whether that shift should be a Club (holding Declarer to 9 tricks) or a Heart (allowing an overtrick).
North’s 3♣ was a variation of New Minor Forcing, investigating a 5-3 Heart fit on the way to 3NT.
Against 3NT, East must attack Clubs if the defense is to get 4 tricks. But East is more likely to start with the 4♠, his 4th best … Declarer may try a tricky false card here, winning with the King instead of the Nine … he then knocks out the A♥, and hopes that a sleepy West shoots back a Spade, playing Declarer for KQ tight in Spades. If West falls for this ruse, Declarer will no doubt chortle inwardly as he wraps up 12 tricks.
But West would truly have to be dozing to be taken in that way. Partner led the Four, and West should figure out that there is some jiggery-pokery going on by using any one of these thought processes: - Partner cannot have more than 5 Spades, if he led the Four and the Two is in West’s hand, so North has at least 3 Spades, and her K♠ must be bogus (she could have won the trick more cheaply) - If Declarer started with KQ tight, then Partner was dealt AJ9843 and the Four is not his 4th best - The Rule of Eleven tells us that North has three Spades higher than the Four … the calculation is: 11 minus Partner’s spot card gives us 7, of those 7 we can see 2 cards higher than the Four in Dummy, two in our hand, that leaves 3 remaining for Declarer’s hand. If West fell from grace by failing to consider the evidence, then a well-earned top for Declarer thanks to her heads-up false-card.
Back to the bidding. Over 3♣, were any Souths tempted to bid 3♥? It’s worthy of consideration, after all, South does have two honors in Partner’s suit, and the 5-2 fit might prove quite tenable. It turns out that 4♥ scores better 3NT (+420 versus +400), but let’s be realistic, it’s a most lucky contract ... East leads the Q♠ won by Declarer, then a Heart to West’s Ace, and a Spade back … at this point the trump suit is blocked and Declarer must rely on a 3-3 break to make his contract. Also, if Diamonds were 3-1 there is the danger that the defense can arrange a ruff for their 4th trick. All in all, we’d rather be in 3NT (particularly if West is taking his afternoon nap).
Another flawed (and vulnerable) Weak Two, but one that we would also make … please see the Bidding Quiz. A good Pass by East, in our view, game was a long shot, at matchpoints it’s often wise to settle for a plus score rather than pursuing an improbable game.
Against 2♥, the defense will usually end up scoring 2 Clubs, the A♦ and a Heart, and this is likely to happen regardless of how Declarer guesses Clubs. But check out this fanciful line if North reasonably leads the 9♠: 9♠, covered by the Ten and Queen, and ruffed Heart to the Ace K♠, covered by the Ace and ruffed Cash K♥ Lose a Heart to North’s Queen Low Club, won by Dummy’s King (nice guess!) J♠, pitching a Club This holds the defense to just one Club trick, and Declarer makes 10 tricks.
Back to the bidding. When 2♥ is passed around to South, she might well have balanced with a Double. We would have done, which would have been our bad luck because the balance is disastrous! North will bid 2♠, and that will be doubled with great alacrity by East. The damage will be -500 or -800.
Surely N-S will play this one in some number of Spades, and some pairs might even get to game. However, 8 tricks is the limit, thanks to two Diamond ruffs for the defense. East leads the J♦, won by West’s Ace, and the 6♦ is returned. This card shows suit preference, the lowest card signifying a preference for the lower ranking suit (Clubs, not Hearts). Declarer might try to scramble the signal by playing the Four and the Ten, and withholding the Two, but this will not fool an alert East … he’ll know that the Nine, Eight and Seven are all unaccounted for, and that West could surely have spared a higher card if he really wanted a Heart back.
Back to the bidding. West has a rather nice hand, could he have done more in the bidding? Professor Oddbid says he would have doubled 3♠, which we thought was somewhat extreme … he reckoned there was a good chance that Partner could convert it to a penalty Double and, failing that, he thought that E-W would have safety in a 4-level contract. Not for the first time the Professor is spot on! His Double gets E-W to 4♥ (which will surely be doubled by South), a contract which makes with careful play by East. To see how, please visit Play Problem # 105.
West’s 2NT was Ogust, and 3♠ showed “Good suit, good hand”, which was more than enough encouragement for West to go to game. South has an obvious Q♣ lead, won in the Dummy … now a Spade finesse, won by South’s King … a Club ruffed, a winning Diamond finesse, and when the dust has cleared Declarer will have lost a Spade, a Heart, and a Diamond, making 10 tricks. Yes, it’s possible to pick up the Diamonds for no losers by running the J♦, and if it is cover later finessing against the Ten. But that line is against the odds, it’s better to hope that South has the doubleton King.
Did any E-W pairs bid this grand slam? We certainly hope not, game is plenty on the cards. But with two working finesses and 3-3 breaks in Hearts and Clubs, 13 tricks come rolling in.
Last week in the Bidding Quiz (Board 19) we gave a summary of Game Try methods, but today’s South’s just tried a simple invitational raise. No matter what type of Game Try South might have used it was due to be met with a steadfast refusal, North being quite minimum.
Even 3♠ is touch and go, and Declarer may be forced to guess the Diamonds in order to make 9 tricks. However, West may save Declarer from that chore with her opening lead, her choices being: - A Spade? The Ace is not without risk (Partner might have the singleton King), and there does not seem much point in leading a low Spade. - A Diamond? This takes away the Diamond guess, and it will be +140 for N-S. - A Club? That’s a dangerous looking lead, and it blows a trick on the actual hand … Dummy’s Nine forces the King which is taken by the Ace … now a Club at Trick Two sets up a Diamond pitch and again it’s +140 - A Heart? Also dangerous looking, but it turns out to be the winner, or at least the lead which gives Declarer a chance to misguess Diamonds.
Dr Goodlead led the A♠ on this hand, somewhat to our surprise. He just didn’t like any on the alternatives.
We like South’s auction on this one! What was that 3♥ all about? Please see the Bidding Quiz. N-S did pretty well to get to game on this one, we think, even though 6♦ is a fine contract, and 7♦ actually makes on the lie of the cards.
Over a Weak Two, it’s customary for the 2NT bid to be about the same as a Strong No Trump opening, with at least one stopper in the enemy suit. What are your methods in this situation? It keeps life simple if you just play whatever are your methods over a 2NT opening bid, but there is one issue to discuss with Partner … what does a transfer into their suit mean? In this auction we are talking about a 3♥ bid. Clearly, we are not showing Spades with this bid, and our suggestion is that you use this to show shortness in Spades. The objective is to suggest a contract of 5♣ and/or 5♦ (as an alternative to 3NT) if Partner’s holding in their suit is suspect. But, on this hand, it’s academic, North has an obvious Texas Transfer to 4♥.
Nothing to the play, it’s 10 tricks.
Normally, of course, it’s a bad strategy to make a Take-out Double with two (or fewer) cards in an unbid major. But when we have a really strong hand it’s permissible to make an exception, and that is what East does here. After West responds 2♥ (what a surprise!), East will want to bid some number of No Trump, and the point ranges are as follows: - 15-18: This hand would not have doubled, it would have overcalled 1NT - 19-20: Double, then bid No Trump cheaply - 21-23: Double, then jump in No Trump
So, East rebids 3NT, hoping that Partner is not completely broke. South leads the J♠, Dummy goes down, and the contract at least has chances. How would you play this one? Given the woeful lack of entries in Dummy, we'd duck a Spade, win the second Spade, and play Clubs from our hand, hoping that North did not have the Ace and the Jack. As it happens the J♣ comes down and likewise the doubleton K♦, so a surprising 10 tricks are made. It could have been an even more surprising 11 tricks if we had played South for the improbable J9 in Spades!
A routine New Minor Forcing auction. North will no doubt lead the T♣ (or the Nine if playing “0 or 2 higher”)and that will be 9 fast tricks. The extremely bizarre defense of a low Spade to the King and a Club shift beats 3NT by one trick, but that’s not going to happen in real life.
That 3♥ was a Professor Oddbid special … raising to the 3-level with 2-card support is not a bid that would occur to everybody. For more on this, please see the Bidding Quiz.
South’s second bid was a Maximal Double, and as such was a game try, not merely competitive. And, we must say that South showed admirable restraint by not doubling 4♥.
There’s nothing to the play of 4♥ … no doubt the defense will cash their Spades on the go, before one of them goes away on the A♣ and that will be +620 for E-W … don’t be greatly surprised if there are a couple of 790’s on the scoresheet.
Suppose that South decides to bid on to 4♠, no doubt doubled by East. West will be on lead and foremost in his mind will be how to get a Club ruff (or two). The most likely entry to Partner’s hand is a Heart, and this is an excellent opportunity for an “Alarm Clock” lead, which is to say a lead which Partner will recognize as being abnormal, and which should give him pause for thought. - If E-W play 4th best leads, then the Two should wake up Partner … he’ll win the Ace, realize that the Two cannot be a 4th best (surely West has at least 5 Hearts), and realize that a routine Heart return is not required … when East lays down the A♣ all becomes clear, and the ruff ensures a 500 set. - If E-W play 3rd and 5th leads, the lead of the Two won’t do the job, it will look completely normal to East … so West should try the Nine, which hopefully will appear sufficiently unusual to awake Partner from his slumber.
A well-judged auction by both North and East. North concluded that 5♥ was likely to be a good save against 4♠, and East bid on to 5♠ based on her undisclosed support and shortness in the enemy suit. 5♠ makes 11 tricks, of course, and N-S have a good save in 5♥ doubled (-300), whereas 6♥ doubled is too expensive.
North’s response was the Jacoby 2NT, a game-forcing raise in Spades. South showed Heart shortness, which pleased North not at all, and 4♠ was the final contract. And an unlucky contract it turns out to be … West leads his Diamond to East’s Ace, the Diamond Three (suit preference for Clubs) is ruffed, then a Club to the Ace and a second ruff. Down one.
North decided that she was not quite good enough for a jump rebid to 3♦, and South showed a 3-card limit raise with her 1NT then 3♥ sequence.
North, as Declarer, will have 11 easy tricks if East leads a Spade, but a Diamond opening lead makes life more difficult. The K♦ wins the first trick, and then Declarer takes the losing Heart finesse. With that menacing Club suit in Dummy we’d expect East to shift to a Spade, giving Declarer a guess for 10 or 11 tricks. If East leads anything else, Declarer can play a second round of Hearts, and when the Ten comes down she can ruff out the Club (no need to risk the finesse), cross to the board with the Heart Nine and score 12 tricks.
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