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Hand Analyses 29th November, 2006
North was not quite good enough to bid 2♠ directly over 2♦, and had to make do with a Negative Double. Do you think that South did enough when she bid only 3♥? It’s very close to a 4♥ bid, but at least by bidding only 3♥ she kept 3NT in the picture. Not much to the play, it’ll be 10 tricks for Declarer.
A nice balancing 3♦ by West, he had no intention of letting them play at the two-level when he had a 6-card suit and his side had half of the HCP’s. 3♦ makes on the nose on all lines of play.
That’s a pretty poor suit for South’s Weak Two. We are relatively relaxed about suit quality, but would usually except a bit more stuff than that! However, the vulnerability is favorable, so we admit that we too would start with 2♠.
North’s 2NT is some form of asking bid, we’ll leave it open as to whether it asks for a Feature or is a variation of Ogust. But, whatever that 2NT means, the question becomes “How are the responses changed by that 3♣ interference?” It’s not a situation that comes up very often, but there are some general principles that will help guide us through this uncharted territory. Please see the Bidding Quiz.
West will no doubt lead a low Club to East’s Jack. East cashes the A♣, and gets out a Heart. Declarer’s best chance is surely to run the Heart around to Dummy’s Jack, and lead a Spade. The bidding suggests that the Ace is with East, and if it is doubleton the contract is cold. A Spade is led to the King, then a small Spade to the Ace, and eventually two of Declarer’s Diamonds will go on the Hearts. Making 9 tricks!
Double Dummy Note: See an unlikely line of defense which beats Declarer by two tricks? Yes, the Q♣ opening lead, covered by the King and Ace … now a low Club to West’s Ten, and a Diamond shift. East takes two Diamond trick and exits a Club ruffed on the board. A Spade is led, East jumps up with the Ace, and leads another Club to give West a trump promotion! No need for the E-W pairs to castigate themselves if they didn’t manage this defense at the table.
As West, what would you lead against this optimistic 3NT contract? The unbid suit is Diamonds, but that looks highly dangerous, so we would lead a Heart. Dr Goodlead agreed, then added “I lead the Two, of course. If I’m going to attack Dummy’s 5-card suit, I don’t want to be stuck with the Two on the 5th round, hopefully Partner can provide the Seven or an honor”.
As it happens, East does not have any of the hoped-for Heart cards, but the Doctor will probably get away with his clever lead anyway. Declarer will call for a low Heart from the board and East’s mighty Five forces the Queen. Too late will Declarer realize that the Six from the board would have won the trick. If one thinks about the play at Trick One, one will conclude that playing the Six can never be wrong. But how many Declarers would even think about playing the Six at the table? Not many!
OK, the Doctor gets away with his low Heart lead, and now a well-timed sequence of plays can beat Declarer by two tricks: Low Heart to the Queen Club to the King Diamond to the Jack and West’s King Spade to the Ace and a Spade back to Dummy’s Queen A Club, ducked by West A Club to West’s Ace Now, Dummy cashes the Clubs, but is forced to concede two Hearts in the end-game for down two.
An interesting auction, let’s look at some of those bids: - 1NT: The 1NT overcall is usually played in the 15-18 range - Dbl: Usually 10+ HCP’s, with no upper limit if by an unpassed hand - Rdbl: When a No Trump overcall (or opening) is doubled, some pairs have all sorts of exotic “run-out” methods … this E-W simply used the Redouble as their method of getting out in 2♣ or 2♦ … please see the Bidding Quiz - North’s Pass of 2♣: This bid was forcing, the partnership agreement being that North’s Double required that the opponents played the hand doubled or that N-S had to bid up to at least 2NT … again, please see the Bidding Quiz - 2♦ and 2♥: Both these bids were forcing, as per the previous item - 3NT: South is too good to bid just 2NT, and judges that 3NT is likely to have better chances than 4♥ … this one is also featured in the Bidding Quiz.
West has nothing but dangerous leads from which to choose, anything could blow a trick. We’d lead a Diamond, it is our longest suit after all, and if this costs a trick at least we’ll have safe exits in Diamonds for the rest of the hand. If we lead a Club instead, we’ll almost certainly blow a trick, and then may find that we must surrender another one at Trick Two. The Diamond opening lead works out well when East obligingly provides the Ten. Now, nine tricks is the best Declarer can do, via 2 Spades, 4 Hearts and 3 Diamonds.
How does 4♥ fare? Not well, it’s down one whether East starts out with Clubs or with his singleton Diamond.
South gets his Partner to 3♠ via a strong Michaels sequence. In auctions where Declarer has shown length in two suits, and Dummy has taken a preference in one of them, it’s often a good idea to lead a trump in order to stop Dummy getting ruffs in Declarer’s side-suit. However, with 4 small cards in that side-suit that lead is less attractive … the ruffs may not be needed by Declarer, and, if they are needed, Partner will be in the over-ruffing position. So, West might well start with the A♣, followed by the Q♦ shift. That shift will have all the hallmarks of a doubleton, and one elegant line of play is to duck the Diamond, win the Diamond continuation, and play A♠ and out a Spade, hoping that the trumps are 3-2 with the high honors split. If they are split, Declarer now has the timing to get that Heart ruff on the board, and 9 tricks … when they turn out not to split it’s down one.
That line may be elegant, but it’s also misguided. West obligingly showed Declarer 6 HCP’s on the first two tricks, and that leaves just 13 HCP’s unaccounted for. As East has opened the bidding, and appears to be 4-4 in the minors (looks like West has 5 Clubs for his 3♣ bid), it seems unlikely that he has much distribution, therefore surely he has all of those high cards. So, the correct line of play must be to duck the first Diamond, win the continuation, and lose a Spade. If West wins this trick he does best to continue trumps, but Declarer can still arrange for a Heart ruff on the board … and if East wins the trick and plays a Diamond, Declarer can ruff confidently with the Jack, cash the A♠, and take his Heart ruff.
Normally, the 4th suit is artificial, the so-called Fourth Suit Forcing, but here is the one exception … this sequence is usually played as natural, and forcing for one round.
There ought to be a law against having to analyze the outcome of 1NT contracts, there are just too many lead and play possibilities to consider. This deal turns out to be a Declarer-friendly hand, with on-side major honors, and the hand with the long Diamonds being entryless. Looks like 8 or 9 tricks to us, one way or another.
Walsh Note: Walsh players will by-pass that Diamond suit, and respond 1♠, getting to the same 1NT contract but without giving the opponents as much information.
North might reasonably have opened 1♣, planning a reverse of 2♥ if Partner were to respond 1♠. After the 1NT opening, it would be most feeble of West to sell out when non-vulnerable (but only moderately feeble if E-W were vulnerable). The real decision is not whether to bid, it’s whether to show a Spade one-suiter or a major two-suiter. It’s usually better to offer Partner a choice, so the West in the featured auction wheeled out a DONT bid of 2♥, showing a major two-suiter (or, Hearts and a higher-ranking suit, as some might say). East naturally enough bids 2♠ and fortuitously lands in the 5-3 fit.
Now, it’s North’s chance to be non-feeble. Yes, 3♣ is a bit of a shot in the dark, and it could be an utter disaster, but we think it’s worth a try … non-vulnerable, just two cards in their Spade suit, and with Partner able to over-ruff Hearts perhaps.
In 3♣, N-S lose just a trick in each suit, whereas 2♠ also makes. So, North’s gamble pays off this time.
If N-S open fairly light then perhaps South’s hand is not good enough for a game-forcing 2♥ bid. But, even if South responds just 1NT, N-S will surely reach game, perhaps by this alternative route: North South 1♠ 1NT 2♠ 2NT 3NT Pass
In 3NT, it’s 10 tricks at every table.
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