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Hand Analyses 29th November, 2006
North was not quite good enough to bid 2♠ directly over 2♦, and had to make do with a Negative Double. Do you think that South did enough when she bid only 3♥? It’s very close to a 4♥ bid, but at least by bidding only 3♥ she kept 3NT in the picture. Not much to the play, it’ll be 10 tricks for Declarer.
A nice balancing 3♦ by West, he had no intention of letting them play at the two-level when he had a 6-card suit and his side had half of the HCP’s. 3♦ makes on the nose on all lines of play.
That’s a pretty poor suit for South’s Weak Two. We are relatively relaxed about suit quality, but would usually except a bit more stuff than that! However, the vulnerability is favorable, so we admit that we too would start with 2♠.
North’s 2NT is some form of asking bid, we’ll leave it open as to whether it asks for a Feature or is a variation of Ogust. But, whatever that 2NT means, the question becomes “How are the responses changed by that 3♣ interference?” It’s not a situation that comes up very often, but there are some general principles that will help guide us through this uncharted territory. Please see the Bidding Quiz.
West will no doubt lead a low Club to East’s Jack. East cashes the A♣, and gets out a Heart. Declarer’s best chance is surely to run the Heart around to Dummy’s Jack, and lead a Spade. The bidding suggests that the Ace is with East, and if it is doubleton the contract is cold. A Spade is led to the King, then a small Spade to the Ace, and eventually two of Declarer’s Diamonds will go on the Hearts. Making 9 tricks!
Double Dummy Note: See an unlikely line of defense which beats Declarer by two tricks? Yes, the Q♣ opening lead, covered by the King and Ace … now a low Club to West’s Ten, and a Diamond shift. East takes two Diamond trick and exits a Club ruffed on the board. A Spade is led, East jumps up with the Ace, and leads another Club to give West a trump promotion! No need for the E-W pairs to castigate themselves if they didn’t manage this defense at the table.
As West, what would you lead against this optimistic 3NT contract? The unbid suit is Diamonds, but that looks highly dangerous, so we would lead a Heart. Dr Goodlead agreed, then added “I lead the Two, of course. If I’m going to attack Dummy’s 5-card suit, I don’t want to be stuck with the Two on the 5th round, hopefully Partner can provide the Seven or an honor”.
As it happens, East does not have any of the hoped-for Heart cards, but the Doctor will probably get away with his clever lead anyway. Declarer will call for a low Heart from the board and East’s mighty Five forces the Queen. Too late will Declarer realize that the Six from the board would have won the trick. If one thinks about the play at Trick One, one will conclude that playing the Six can never be wrong. But how many Declarers would even think about playing the Six at the table? Not many!
OK, the Doctor gets away with his low Heart lead, and now a well-timed sequence of plays can beat Declarer by two tricks: Low Heart to the Queen Club to the King Diamond to the Jack and West’s King Spade to the Ace and a Spade back to Dummy’s Queen A Club, ducked by West A Club to West’s Ace Now, Dummy cashes the Clubs, but is forced to concede two Hearts in the end-game for down two.
An interesting auction, let’s look at some of those bids: - 1NT: The 1NT overcall is usually played in the 15-18 range - Dbl: Usually 10+ HCP’s, with no upper limit if by an unpassed hand - Rdbl: When a No Trump overcall (or opening) is doubled, some pairs have all sorts of exotic “run-out” methods … this E-W simply used the Redouble as their method of getting out in 2♣ or 2♦ … please see the Bidding Quiz - North’s Pass of 2♣: This bid was forcing, the partnership agreement being that North’s Double required that the opponents played the hand doubled or that N-S had to bid up to at least 2NT … again, please see the Bidding Quiz - 2♦ and 2♥: Both these bids were forcing, as per the previous item - 3NT: South is too good to bid just 2NT, and judges that 3NT is likely to have better chances than 4♥ … this one is also featured in the Bidding Quiz.
West has nothing but dangerous leads from which to choose, anything could blow a trick. We’d lead a Diamond, it is our longest suit after all, and if this costs a trick at least we’ll have safe exits in Diamonds for the rest of the hand. If we lead a Club instead, we’ll almost certainly blow a trick, and then may find that we must surrender another one at Trick Two. The Diamond opening lead works out well when East obligingly provides the Ten. Now, nine tricks is the best Declarer can do, via 2 Spades, 4 Hearts and 3 Diamonds.
How does 4♥ fare? Not well, it’s down one whether East starts out with Clubs or with his singleton Diamond.
South gets his Partner to 3♠ via a strong Michaels sequence. In auctions where Declarer has shown length in two suits, and Dummy has taken a preference in one of them, it’s often a good idea to lead a trump in order to stop Dummy getting ruffs in Declarer’s side-suit. However, with 4 small cards in that side-suit that lead is less attractive … the ruffs may not be needed by Declarer, and, if they are needed, Partner will be in the over-ruffing position. So, West might well start with the A♣, followed by the Q♦ shift. That shift will have all the hallmarks of a doubleton, and one elegant line of play is to duck the Diamond, win the Diamond continuation, and play A♠ and out a Spade, hoping that the trumps are 3-2 with the high honors split. If they are split, Declarer now has the timing to get that Heart ruff on the board, and 9 tricks … when they turn out not to split it’s down one.
That line may be elegant, but it’s also misguided. West obligingly showed Declarer 6 HCP’s on the first two tricks, and that leaves just 13 HCP’s unaccounted for. As East has opened the bidding, and appears to be 4-4 in the minors (looks like West has 5 Clubs for his 3♣ bid), it seems unlikely that he has much distribution, therefore surely he has all of those high cards. So, the correct line of play must be to duck the first Diamond, win the continuation, and lose a Spade. If West wins this trick he does best to continue trumps, but Declarer can still arrange for a Heart ruff on the board … and if East wins the trick and plays a Diamond, Declarer can ruff confidently with the Jack, cash the A♠, and take his Heart ruff.
Normally, the 4th suit is artificial, the so-called Fourth Suit Forcing, but here is the one exception … this sequence is usually played as natural, and forcing for one round.
There ought to be a law against having to analyze the outcome of 1NT contracts, there are just too many lead and play possibilities to consider. This deal turns out to be a Declarer-friendly hand, with on-side major honors, and the hand with the long Diamonds being entryless. Looks like 8 or 9 tricks to us, one way or another.
Walsh Note: Walsh players will by-pass that Diamond suit, and respond 1♠, getting to the same 1NT contract but without giving the opponents as much information.
North might reasonably have opened 1♣, planning a reverse of 2♥ if Partner were to respond 1♠. After the 1NT opening, it would be most feeble of West to sell out when non-vulnerable (but only moderately feeble if E-W were vulnerable). The real decision is not whether to bid, it’s whether to show a Spade one-suiter or a major two-suiter. It’s usually better to offer Partner a choice, so the West in the featured auction wheeled out a DONT bid of 2♥, showing a major two-suiter (or, Hearts and a higher-ranking suit, as some might say). East naturally enough bids 2♠ and fortuitously lands in the 5-3 fit.
Now, it’s North’s chance to be non-feeble. Yes, 3♣ is a bit of a shot in the dark, and it could be an utter disaster, but we think it’s worth a try … non-vulnerable, just two cards in their Spade suit, and with Partner able to over-ruff Hearts perhaps.
In 3♣, N-S lose just a trick in each suit, whereas 2♠ also makes. So, North’s gamble pays off this time.
If N-S open fairly light then perhaps South’s hand is not good enough for a game-forcing 2♥ bid. But, even if South responds just 1NT, N-S will surely reach game, perhaps by this alternative route: North South 1♠ 1NT 2♠ 2NT 3NT Pass
In 3NT, it’s 10 tricks at every table.
Against 4♠, West might well lay down the A♦ to get a look at Dummy. When it goes down with a singleton in the led suit, the situation usually calls for a suit preference signal from East. He’ll play a low Diamond to show something in Clubs, a high Diamond for Hearts, and an indifferent Diamond with no preference. So, East of course plays the Three and the defense has no trouble getting its Club ruff for down one.
How do you and your Partner stop short of game after Opener reverses? Please see the Bidding Quiz. In the featured auction, South’s 2NT was forcing for one round, and game was soon reached.
The play in 3NT is rather dull, 11 tricks are easy enough.
We’d say that South’s 3♠ was a slight underbid, but a well-calculated one. South could force to game with a 3♦ bid, but that does not seem to do the Spade suit justice, so we would make the underbid with a merely invitational 3♠, figuring that this will give Partner the best chance of choosing correctly between 3NT and 4♠. Of course, the trade-off is the risk of missing game, so at IMP’s we’d rebid 3♦. As it happens, 3♠ is high enough! Even though the trump suit breaks, Declarer must lose 4 tricks in the side-suits.
3NT has practical chances, though. East will lead a Heart or a Club. If he chooses a Heart (any one of them), it’s curtains for the defense. If he chooses a Club, West’s Ace takes the first trick, she returns a low Club, and Declarer must insert the Seven, won by East’s Ten. At this point East knows that Declarer started with 5 Clubs, and he can be sure that the Jack is with West and the King is with Declarer … but where is the Nine? If he plays Partner for that card he may go wrong by continuing Clubs, letting Declarer score 3 Clubs and 6 Spades to make her contract. The way to beat the contract is for East to exit with a Diamond, and get a Heart shift. A difficult hand for E-W to defend accurately.
North figured that she had too much defense against Hearts to bid 3♠ or 4♠ preemptively, so she improvised with 2♥, supposedly showing limit raise values. Yes, she was quite a bit light in terms of HCPs but the extra trump and the potential ruffing values provided some extra offense.
But whether North decides to preempt, or to bid constructively, N-S are destined to play in 4♠ making 5. The Heart suit provides a Diamond pitch, and just two Clubs are lost.
A simple Stayman auction to the doomed 4♠. Somewhat unlucky, perhaps, but there was a lot to be said for West transferring to Hearts and forgetting about the Spade suit. After all, West’s hand is so weak that the long Hearts might not realize any tricks unless they are trumps. Also, it’s easy to imagine a scenario whereby Opener has a moderate 4-card Spade suit where there are one or two trump losers in the 4-4 fit, whereas, playing in 6-2 or 6-3 Hearts, those Spade losers can be parked on minor suit winners. In fact, the more that we think about it, the more we think that West should just insist on Hearts.
As we said, 4♠ is doomed by the unfortunate Spade situation. But the play in 4♥ may well be a thing of beauty. Suppose that West transfers, East declares 4♥, South leads a Diamond and gets her ruff. Now she exits a Heart (safest). Can you now make 10 tricks in Hearts? Sure you can! See Play Problem # 95. This one is a real corker, please check it out!
System Note: We managed to convince ourselves that maybe West should just insist on Hearts in preference to 4-4 Spades, but we would be remiss not to explore for 5-4 Spades if our methods allow that. So, those pairs that play Puppet Stayman can investigate for 4- and 5-card majors from Opener. When the 5-4 Spade fit does not materialize, Responder settles for 4♥.
After West’s 3♥ rebid, East’s hand is almost good enough to boot out 6♥directly. But there is the specter of two potential Spade losers. A little bit of cue-bidding dispatches that concern and the slam is duly reached.
What would you lead from the South hand against 6♥? Our suggestion is anything but a Heart. None of the leads looks particularly promising, but a singleton trump is especially dangerous, all too often that lead (as here) picks up Partner’s Jxxx or Qxx. We’d probably try a Diamond (Dr Goodlead did) but it doesn’t achieve anything useful. Of course, Declarer still has a trump guess, which will merely determine whether it’s 980 or 1010.
Singleton Theory Addendum: The saga continues. The Singleton Theory tells us that when we have a singleton, the odds are that the opponents do also, and that this should persuade us sometimes to break the “Eight ever, nine never” guideline. Scientists think that this is absolute nonsense, and will play for the drop unless they have other more concrete clues about the enemy distribution. Mystics, of course, decline to submit to the rules of mathematics, and are inclined to finesse in these situations. We can be assured that the Mystics will be all set to finesse the Hearts, but they’ll probably go the wrong way, figuring that the opening lead of the Diamond Nine is more likely to be from shortness than from length. Scientists will plan to play for the drop and both sides will lose a Heart trick. So, no change in the score, which remains: Mystics 3, Scientists 1.
4♠ probably making 6. West will dutifully lead Partner's suit, and, after trumps are drawn, a couple of Club finesses will provide to Diamond pitches. That's what you get for leading Partner's suit, it takes a Diamond lead to hold Declarer to 11 tricks.
There were only 4 bids in this violent auction, but all of them were noteworthy! Let’s go through them in turn.
How about North’s 3♥? Not exactly ideal with that topless suit and outside Ace, but at least the suit has fillers and the overall hand has but one defensive trick. Looks like a preempt to us.
East’s Dbl was far from ideal but reasonable in our view. The fifth Spade is a negative (could lose a 5-3 Spade fit), and the hand is somewhat under strength for a 3-level Double. On the other hand, when one is short in the opponent’s suit in these situations, there is an obligation to get into the auction whenever reasonably possible. Why? Because Partner will usually not be short in their suit and may have no convenient entry into the auction. Having said all that, Double here is certainly a stretch, nobody would argue too much with a Pass.
No half measures for South. She can see that the opponents surely have slam somewhere, maybe even a grand, so she applies maximum pressure.
West has no alternative but to Double, even though he wistfully wonders if his side is cold for a grand slam. Had South bid only 5♥, West would have an easy 6♦ bid, of course.
Not surprisingly, 6♦ makes in comfort, and 6♥ is a fine save at down 3 for -500. Spare a thought for those folks who got to 6♠ … not a bad contract at all, but down one on the 4-1 trump break.
One can hardly blame West for rebidding 3♥ with that 5-loser hand, after which E-W are doomed to go down in game. 4♥ looks like down 2 to us (although Deep Finesse did find a way to go down only one), and 3NT is down 2 or 3. Just a nasty hand for E-W.
We saw back on Board 5 that overcalling 1NT is generally used to show hands in the 15-18 range (with an appropriate holding in the enemy suit, of course). North is too good for that, so she doubles first, then rebids No Trump, showing 19-20.
In 2NT, Dummy turns out to be of little help to Declarer, and this contract is going down. East has the unpleasant task of leading into a strong balanced hand where Dummy is known to be very weak. Declarer may well have no entry to Dummy, in which case she will be unable to take any finesses, so it would be nice to find an opening lead which does not give her a free finesse. We’d say that this eliminates Diamonds and Clubs, and our own guess would be a Heart opening lead. But, whichever major suit East leads, it will be down two. A Club opening lead would be especially disastrous … first, it blows a Club trick … second, it allows an entry to the board, and so a Diamond trick disappears also … making 8 tricks!
West has a hand which passes the Rule of Twenty, but which also has that dubious singleton Queen. True, but he also has a couple of Aces and 3 Tens, cards which are all undervalued in the HCP scale. So, he opens 1♦ without compunction.
Last week (Board 9) we encountered a situation where the auction commenced: 1♣ Pass 1♠ Pass 2♣ Pass 2♦ The 2♦ bid was described as New Minor Forcing, a device which is just as useful after a minor suit rebid as it is over a 1NT rebid. This week, we have a similar auction, and, as the “new minor” is at the 3-level, it’s a practical necessity to make it game-forcing. Remember, the main purpose of New Minor Forcing is to elicit secondary support for Responder’s major.
West does not have secondary support, so he bids 3♠, showing something in that suit and hoping Partner will bid 3NT if he has Clubs stopped. Instead, East goes to 4♥ anyway, notwithstanding the lack of support from West. Of course, he could have bid 4♥ directly over 2♦, so going via this convoluted New Minor Forcing route shows a very good hand, one with extras and at least mild slam interest.
Slam is highly ambitious, though it does have practical chances. For example, 12 tricks are possible after a Diamond lead (win A♦, ruff a Diamond, cross to the Q♥, ruff a Diamond, draw trumps, lead K♣, etc). After a Club opening lead, North wins the Ace, and must alertly shift to a trump, knocking out one of Dummy’s entries before it can be put to good use for the establishment of Diamonds. Yes, a major suit opening lead holds Declarer to 11 tricks.
There are many 4- and 5-point hands where we would want to take a call with opposite a simple opening bid. But, the South hand is not one of them! No Aces, no Kings, no shape, no support, nothing to say.
West’s balancing seat jump to 2♠ showed an opening hand with 6 Spades … see the Bidding Quiz for more on this.
In 4♠ everything is most friendly and 12 tricks are easy.
We are not big on flimsy two-level overcalls with 5-card suits and shapeless hands, but it’s a good idea to stretch things a little when the opponents have bid and raised. North is in the so-called “pre-balancing” position, and can take the pressure off Partner by bidding with the right hand-type, and worrying a little less than usual about the hand-strength.
South was cognizant of North’s pre-balancing obligations and cut her Partner some slack by bidding only 3♠ over 3♥. Yes, it would be nice on this occasion if a Double of 3♥ were a Maximal Double, but that treatment is normally reserved for occasions when the (N-S) suit has already been agreed.
3♠ is a poor contract, down two (down three in some variations), for -100. But the good news is that E-W can make 10 tricks in Hearts. Not that 4♥ is a game which should be bid, however, it requires the Heart finesse, usually a 2-2 Heart break, and assorted other bits of good fortune.
4♠ will be the universal contract, one would imagine. East leads the A♣, and continues with a low Club, ruffed by Declarer. Now, the straightforward line seems to be to attempt to ruff 3 Diamonds in Dummy before drawing trumps. Making 5 when East scores his K♠ on the 4th round of Diamonds.
West decided to rebid his decent 6-card Spade suit before showing his mangy 3-card Heart support. How about East’s 3♣ bid? It’s not exactly the New Minor Forcing bid that we encountered back on Board 20, because the auction has already established a force. But, its intent was not dissimilar … East did not want to rebid the modest Hearts, so he marked time with 3♣.
It turns out that 12 tricks are available in 4♥. Let’s say that South leads a Club, won by Declarer’s Ace. Now, A♥, A♠, ruff a Club, K♠ pitching a Club, and a low trump. This straightforward line works whenever Hearts are 2-2, or when South has the singleton King or Queen, the sum of which is a little more than 50%.
After this auction, on lead with the East hand, we would probably guess to try a Spade. Now, Declarer has 9 tricks if she can pick up the Diamonds for no losers. There’s no enemy bidding to help us guess the Diamonds, but, nonetheless, it is 100% correct to lay down the K♦ at Trick Two. How so? Simple … if West shows out we can pick up Qxxx with East and score 5 Dimaond tricks. But, if we lead a Diamond to the Ace at Trick Two, and East shows out, we cannot make 5 Diamond tricks, the suit blockage holds us to 4 due to the lack of Dummy entries. Good play is rewarded when Declarer correctly lays down the King and is able to score all of Dummy’s Diamonds for a total of 9 tricks.
More Singleton Theory Stuff As on Board 15, the fact that Dummy has a singleton will persuade non-scientists to play for the opponents to have shortness somewhere, presumably in Diamonds. But, after the K♦ is laid down and West shows out, it all becomes moot, Scientists and Mystics both pick up the suit.
System Note: Many tournament players use a method known as Inverted Minors, whereby 1♦ 2♦ is forcing (invitational or better) and 1♦ 3♦ is preemptive (at least 5-card support). Playing that method, South has a classic 3♦ bid, of course.
Note for Squeeze Enthusiasts: The far from obvious opening lead of the Q♥ will provide Declarer with a sterner test. Suppose that Declarer ducks, wins the Heart continuation (pitching a Club from the board), and lays down the K♦. That confirms 8 tricks and she has two Diamond entries to the board with which to try and build a 9th trick in one of the black suits. Declarer’s first entry to the board comes on the 3rd round of Diamonds, by which time, of course, West will have made three pitches. A black suit pitch would be fatal, so he’ll get rid of 3 Hearts, which will confirm that East’s opening lead was from Qx. West’s discomfort on the Diamond pitches should persuade Declarer to finish the run of the suit, and West will probably pitch the rest of his Hearts (and Declarer a Spade). With West squeezed out of his threatening Hearts it’s surely right now for Declarer to lead a Spade towards her hand, planning to play the Ten if West plays low. If East wins with the Queen or Jack, a Spade back will give Declarer his 9th trick. If East exits a Club (the King would be spectacular but futile on the actual layout), the Ace will forced out and a Club will come right back, forcing whoever wins the trick to play on Spades. If it is West who gets to lead the second round of Spades, Declarer will run that around to Dummy’s Nine. This line will succeed whenever East does not have both the Q♠ and J♠ and in numerous other card combinations also (such as Ax of Spades with West, or East obliged to win the second round of Clubs, or the case on the actual hand where West has both the Q♠ and J♠), considerably better odds than simply leading up to the K♠, hoping for the onside Ace. And the squeeze and end-play are so much more fun, too!
North might have tried rebidding 2♠ (Fourth Suit Forcing), but we prefer her actual choice of 3NT, as discussed in the Bidding Quiz.
If, as East, you did not care much for your opening lead options against 3NT, then you are in good company. Dr Goodlead was also not amused, and he vacillated between the 3♥ and the J♠, finally selecting the Heart. As it happens, it’s 10 easy tricks on all leads except a Heart, and even with a Heart lead it’s still 10 tricks if Declarer uses some deductive reasoning and guesses right, as described in Play Problem # 96.
South may have 15 HCP’s and a balanced hand (well, sort of) but with two worthless doubletons that is not a 1NT opening by any stretch of the imagination. Unfortunately, we have to report that a 1NT opening might work rather well on the actual hand … North will transfer to 4♠, and West will have less information on which to base his opening lead … he might well choose a Diamond, and that will be 10 tricks for Declarer.
The featured auction is more informative, however, no Diamond lead here! West will probably try a Club and that should result in a fast down one.
North was only good enough for a 1♠ response to North’s Double, but later felt justified in competing to the three-level based on the extra trump.
It turns out that N-S can make 10 tricks in Spades, but it’s really not a good contract, requiring 3-2 Spades and further luck in Clubs.
North’s 3♥ was not invitational, of course, it was merely furthering the preempt. This turned out to be necessary on the actual hand … without the 3♥ nudge, East would have a comfortable balancing Double … but after the 3♥ bid, balancing with the East hand was just a bit too much.
In 3♥, Declarer will make 9 tricks after West finds the normal lead of a low Diamond.
Aggressive bidding by North, but the high cards are prime and working, and there is also that singleton and the trump Ten. In fact, that T♠ proves quite useful, allowing the trumps to be picked up for one loser. With the Diamonds behaving, 11 tricks are possible, and even 12 might be made if the defense persists in attacking Clubs instead of cashing its Heart winner.
East’s 2NT was asking for a Feature, usually defined as an Ace or King (perhaps QJx should also qualify). The way that this convention is generally played, the Weak Two bidder is not obligated to show the feature if he has a bad hand, but on this deal West was plenty good enough to rebid 3♦, quickly getting his side to game.
Against 4♠, North has an automatic K♥ lead, won by the Ace. Now trumps are drawn, and then the Clubs will provide a pitch for the Diamond loser. Making 11 tricks.
Another Weak Two opening, but this one is passed out, as East has no reason to invite game or further the preempt. Boards 3, 29, 31, 32 all started out with a Weak Two, and in each case they caught Responder with some values … the four hands make an interesting comparative study, please see the Bidding Quiz where all three hands are discussed.
2♠ has the obvious 4 losers, and it turns out that 3NT is a lucky make.
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