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Hand Analyses 22nd November, 2006
West will no doubt lead a Club, notwithstanding that 1♣ opening by North. South wins, loses the Spade finesse, and the defense cashes 4 Clubs. A Heart shift, Dummy’s Ace wins the trick, and now Declarer can count 5 sure tricks. It’s reasonable to expect the Diamond King to be on-side, and that will be 6 tricks. Should she double-hook the Diamonds, or play for Spades 3-3? She cannot test the Spades first, that would leave her with insufficient entries to take two Diamond finesses. We would double hook the Diamonds based on the bidding, but, as it happens, both plans work and Declarer makes 7 tricks either way.
Back to the bidding. Do you approve of that 1♣ opening bid? We could take it or leave it ourselves. A square 12-count does not pass the Rule of Twenty, but on the other hand North does have two Aces and two Tens. Consider us ambivalent. Having said that, 1♣ turns out to be the winner on the actual hand, allowing N-S to go plus … if North passes, the deal will likely be passed out.
To preempt or not to preempt? The vulnerability says “Preempt!”. But the hand-type is hardly perfect (outside strength, crummy suit). As on Board 1, we are having a Hamlet moment, forgive our indecision. We really wouldn’t argue with an East Pass, nor with a 3♥ bid, so choose your own poison. But, let us say, most decisively, that we don’t think that this would be a problem at any other vulnerability, we would just pass.
In the featured auction that 4♦ was a Texas Transfer.
East’s agonizing will achieve nothing, because either way E-W will declare 4♥. But it could be played from either side. If North is on lead, she will no doubt start with the A♠, after which a simple Spade ruffing finesse nets 12 tricks. But, suppose that South is on lead and she somewhat randomly starts with a Diamond. Now, it’s 13 tricks for Declarer! Yes, North is caught in a Progressive Squeeze … Declarer has 11 top tricks, but North is squeezed in 3 suits on the run of the trumps. Dummy wins the opening Diamond lead, and cashes 7 Hearts. Ouch for North! She must come down to 5 cards and all variations lead to North being squeezed out of not just one, but two tricks. Making 7!
Time for a reality check! That Progressive Squeeze is pure fantasy, of course. If the Spade honors are split, and likewise the Club honors, then this line of play is good for just 11 tricks. The realistic line of play after the Diamond opening lead is to draw trumps, pitch a Spade on the Diamonds, concede a Club, and ruff the third round of Clubs on the board. How mundane, the Progressive Squeeze was much more fun!
If East makes the normal enough lead of a 4th best Spade then things will not go well for the defense! Dummy’s Jack wins the first trick, and now Declarer calls for the J♥. West will surely cover, won by Declarer’s Ace. Now, Declarer needs two more entries to the board to pick up the Hearts, but that can only be achieved by overtaking a Diamond honor at the risk of compressing the Diamond winners down to three. We’d risk it anyway, and everything works out just fine when the Diamonds break, and the Hearts come in for one loser. The sequence of plays for 12 tricks is: Spade won by the Jack J♥ covered by the Queen and Ace Cash K♦ Diamond to the Jack Advance the Diamond Eight, won by West’s King Club back, won by Declarer’s Ace K♦, overtaken by the Ace, the Ten fortuitously dropping Cash the 13th Diamond Finesse the Heart. +490 for a top board.
System Note: Those N-S pairs who play Puppet Stayman over 2NT openings will be able to find their 5-3 Heart fit. See the Bidding Quiz.
East reasonably decided that his hand was not quite good enough for a limit raise, no doubt deterred by his square distribution. But when 3♣ came back around his extra trump induced to bid one more time.
Defending 3♠, N-S have their 4 Aces and the only chance for a 5th trick is via a Heart ruff. North will no doubt lead her Partner’s Club suit, and the Ace will take Dummy’s King. South lays down the A♥ (denying the King), Declarer plays the Jack, and North must find a helpful signal. Her first priority is to warn Partner against trying to give her a Club ruff, and that means not playing the Four … this discouraging card will persuade Partner that a Club ruff is indeed required. So, North must encourage Hearts, say with the Seven, even though she has no interest in the suit. South shifts to a Diamond, but not a low one … that would imply a high honor (in this case the Queen), and might persuade North to continue the suit … so she shifts to the 7♦, and now surely North will win the Ace and give Partner the Heart ruff. In fact, even if South did have the Q♦, she would lie about it, just to make sure that a Heart comes back.
The above defense may not seem terribly difficult, and indeed it is not, provided that the defense has sound carding agreements: - Even if, on opening lead against suits, our agreement is to lead Ace from AK, from Trick Two onwards we lead the King from AK. - When our opening lead will be read by Partner as a singleton or doubleton, and when Partner then lays down a high card in another suit, a discouraging card says “Give me my ruff!”. A high card doesn’t mean “I like this suit”, it means “There is no ruff”. - When shifting to a side-suit where we hold nothing but low cards it’s usually right to play one of the higher ones (second highest, for example) to clarify the situation for Partner.
Bergen Note: Yes, playing Bergen, East will show a constructive raise, via a 3♣ bid (though some partnerships use 3♦ for that purpose). South can double 3♣ for the lead, of course.
Obscure System Note: Bidding over their 1♠ 2♠ auction is extremely dangerous, far more so than bidding over a Weak 2♠, for example. LHO is lurking behind us with opening values and may well have extras. Bidding 3♣ in this situation is not only dangerous, it doesn’t make for a constructive auction … how is North supposed to know whether we have the actual hand or something somewhat stronger that might make game a possibility? One more observation … 2NT in this situation shows a strong No Trump kind of hand (with Spades stopped, of course), and this treatment seems risky and not particularly useful.
Where is all this leading us? An obscure (but, in our view, highly sensible) agreement would be to use 2NT here as a Lebensohl-type bid. It tells Partner to bid 3♣, after which Partner will place the contract somewhere at the 3-level … in such a sequence Partner is warned against over-exuberance, we are merely competing. But, if we have a stronger hand (perhaps the one in the above deal with the K♣ additional) we bid 3♣ directly. The treatment can also be used over 1♥ 2♥.
At IMPs, with North’s hand, we would invite to game (via 3♥) like a shot, all the more so given the vulnerability. At matchpoints it’s somewhat less obvious and there is a lot to be said for passing out 2♥.
If you, as North, were one of the aggressive bidders who invited game with 3♥, then you will be thankful when your esteemed Partner finds the winning line of play to make 9 tricks. To see how she saves your bacon, please see Play Problem # 93.
E-W missed an excellent Heart slam, and West must have been sorely tempted to bid it. But give some credit to North for that 4♠ bid, she was bidding one more than she usually would based on the favorable vulnerability. See how easy the auction would be for E-W if North bid only 3♠:
West North East South 1♣ 1♠ 2♥ 3♠ 4♥ 4♠ 4NT Pass 5♥ Pass 6♥ Pass Pass Pass
Here’s another possible variation that may occur at some tables:
West North East South 1♣ 1♠ 2♥ 4♠ 5♥ 5♠ ??
Do you and your Partner have any Forcing Pass agreements? If you do, then no doubt this is a situation where, over 5♠, West’s Pass would be a Forcing Pass. West can pass safe in the knowledge that Partner is obliged to take another call, and must either bid or double. For more on this, please see the Bidding Quiz, and also visit the System Library where we have just added an article on the subject.
A good passed hand Double by South gets her side into the auction. Against 2♥, East might reasonably lead a Diamond or the K♣. If his choice is the K♣, Declarer must duck the first round if he is to prevent West from getting a Club ruff. This fine play allows Declarer to make 9 tricks. Well, almost. East can hold Declarer to 8 tricks by shifting to the Q♠ at Trick Two (or leading the Q♠ on the go), in order to organize a Spade ruff, but that is dangerous-looking and far from obvious. If the opening lead is a Diamond, Declarer also makes 9 tricks as follows: Diamond won by the Ace Heart to the King Diamond won by West Club shift, which Dummy must duck Now the Club ruff is averted, as before.
Some players prefer to have a stronger suit for their Weak Twos, but we don’t have a real problem with the North bid, given the fillers in the suit. It certainly worked well enough on the actual auction, shutting out the opponents.
On most lines of play 2♥ will be down one, but it is just possible that the defense might let this one slip through. For example, suppose that East leads a Club … Declarer plays the Jack, the play most likely to encourage a continuation. West wins, and must shift to a Diamond to beat the contract. He really should find the shift, but if he fails to do so, Declarer can use his 3 Dummy entries for black suit ruffs, with the QT9 of trumps left for a natural 4th trump trick, and 8 tricks altogether.
We don’t have any problem rebidding 1NT with a singleton in Responder’s suit, but this does not seem like the right hand for such a bid, given the fact that North has neither of the unbid suits stopped. Does South’s 2♦ bid look a little odd? It’s New Minor Forcing, a convention which is just as useful in this situation as it is after Opener rebids 1NT.
Against 4♠, West will probably lead the K♦ which blows a trick for the defense. Declarer wines the Ace, and leads a Diamond right back. Now, one of the Hearts disappears on the third round of Diamonds, and Declarer winds up with 11 tricks. West’s alternative lead would be a Club and that holds Declarer to 10 tricks.
How about 3NT? It’s hard to see how this contract can be played from the right side (by South), and played from the North side with a Diamond lead it is a rather poor contract. Declarer does not have the entries to establish the Spades and enjoy them, and with the Clubs misbehaving it will surely be down at least two with normal play.
When we rebid One No Trump we deny any by-passed major suit, but when the rebid is Two No trump that is not the case. So West was quite correct in bidding 3♠ in an attempt to uncover a 4-4 major fit.
On lead against 3NT, South will no doubt be deterred by the bidding from leading a Spade. She’ll further be deterred from the best lead of the J♣ which holds Declarer to 9 tricks. By a process of elimination she’ll probably start with a low Heart to North’s Queen. Declarer does best to duck, and then to play the Ten on the Heart continuation. South wins the Jack, and if she makes the mistake of continuing the suit that will be 10 tricks for Declarer. If South is made of sterner stuff she may decide that the safest exit is the J♣. Dummy plays low, as must North, and the Queen wins. Now Declarer cashes the Diamonds, then the AK♠, and North is strip squeezed! It’s a 3-card ending. North does best to keep the A♣ and 2 Hearts but to no avail … she is now thrown in with a Club and must lead a Heart for Declarer’s 10th trick. Lots of matchpoints for making +630, and some style points added for doing so via the strip squeeze.
Walsh Note: Walsh players rarely waste their time bidding 1♦ over 1♣, and with West’s hand they will respond 1♠. As often happens in Walsh auctions, the defenders get less information from the bidding and here they never learn about West’s Diamonds. It’s unlikely to affect the outcome on this particular deal, but it goes without saying that an uninformative auction generally works out better than when our auction gives the opponents a road map.
South’s Redouble showed some extra values, and North had no problem competing to the 3-level with her extra trump. 3♠ is down a trick when the trumps break badly.
Bergen Note: Those who play Bergen Raises invariably go straight to the 3-level with 4-card support for Partner’s major. The decision here would be whether to show a preemptive hand with 3♠ or a so-called constructive raise (most players use 3♣ for that purpose). To be honest, we don’t much care for either bid. It hardly seems right to preempt with a potential defensive trick in each of the three side-suits, nor does the hand have enough offensive potential for a constructive raise, in our view. So, even playing Bergen Raises, we would be inclined to bid just 2♠. Of course, Law of Total Trick addicts will be aghast at such a suggestion, they’ll always go to the 3-level immediately, one way or the other.
A typical Rule of Twenty opening for North, and her hand got better when West competed in Spades (that T♠ is a big card). If East obediently leads Partner’s suit, 3NT will be made when the Hearts obligingly come in for one loser. However, an opening Club lead defeats the contract by one trick. The inimitable Dr Goodlead has been on something of a roll lately, and he did indeed choose to lead a Club … but it was largely a guess, he thought, and he had no brilliant insights to share with us as to why he chose a Club over a Spade. We suspect that most players would lead a Spade, not out of any conviction that it was the winner, but in consideration of the Irate Partner Factor. Partners never complain when we find the right lead, and they rarely complain when we lead their suit, even if it turns out badly, in fact, in that case they usually apologize for bidding such a rotten suit. But Partners are less charitable when they stick out their necks in the auction specifically for the purpose of attracting a lead and then we head off in a different direction. “Irate” is probably an underbid!
It’s hard to see how South can ever declare 3NT, but from that side of the table the contract is cold. If West leads a Club, the suit blocks.
Not a very exciting deal. East leads a Heart, Declarer ducks, if only just for practice. Dummy wins the Heart continuation, the Diamonds are cleared. East gets in with the 4th round of Diamonds and the defense has 7 tricks.
Playing Walsh-style, South will know that Partner does not have a 4-card major unless he has a good hand and is planning to take another call. With a weak hand and a 4-card major he would not respond 1♦. So, over 1♦, South will rebid 1NT concealing his 4-card Spade suit … if Partner has a Spade suit she also has a good hand and will bid again. So, once again, just as in Board 10, the same contract is reached via the Walsh approach, but again with less information being conveyed to the opponents. In this case, it also results in the contract being played from the other (South) side. West is on lead, and if she tragically chooses a Spade that will be Declarer’s 7th trick and a triumph for Walsh.
For his rebid, West was no doubt torn between 3♦ and 3♠. It turns out that 3♦ is the better contract … there are the obvious 4 red suit losers, and 3♦ makes on many hands where 3♠ is destined to fail. As luck would have it the Spades are most well-behaved so the higher-scoring 3♠ also makes 9 tricks.
South has a pretty good hand, but it’s not quite good enough to force to game so she makes do with a 2♥ rebid. Then, after the 2♠ preference, South makes a game try, gladly accepted by North.
With the East hand we would lead the J♥ … it looks like a safer lead than a blind guess in the minor suits. Declarer wins the A♥ and tackles Spades. East gets in with the A♠, continues Hearts, Declarer ducks, wins the third round, continues Spades and gets the news of the 4-2 Spades break. She exits a Spade, and East exits a low Diamond, his best try. We have now reached a very pretty 5-card ending:
North ♠ -- ♥ -- ♦ Q7 ♣ AJ9 West East ♠ -- ♠ -- ♥ Q ♥ -- ♦ J ♦ A9 ♣ K86 ♣ T72 Dummy ♠ 7 ♥ 8 ♦ 6 ♣ Q3
Dummy leads the last Spade, West and North pitch a Diamond, and East, who executed that Throw-In Squeeze back on Board 10, now finds himself the victim of one! If he pitches a Club, Declarer calls for Dummy’s Q♣, and the Club suit brings in 3 tricks. So, he pitches a Diamond, but to no avail … now, Q♣, covered by the King and Ace, and Declarer throws West in with a Diamond.
Players of the 2/1 style have two ways, as West, to raise Partner’s Spades. They can bid 2♠ directly as in the featured auction, or they can go to 2♠ via a Forcing No Trump auction, as in, for example, 1♠ 1NT, 2♣ 2♠. The direct 1♠ 2♠ auction is generally used to show the better hand, and the indirect auction is used to show weak 3-card support or a 2-card preference. With this in mind, we’d say that West was quite minimum for his direct 2♠ call. Oh, alright, if you insist, yes, he was sub-minimum.
The final contract of 4♠ is not a thing of beauty, largely because most of West’s HCP strength is opposite Opener’s singleton. But the fortunate lie of the enemy cards makes 10 tricks possible, albeit unlikely. Suppose that South leads a Diamond (other leads look somewhat dangerous), won by North’s Queen. Next, the inevitable Heart shift. Can you justify Partner’s overbidding and make 10 tricks? Please see Play Problem #94.
What wonderfully fitting hands! South has nothing but small cards opposite North’s void, and that is the perfect prescription for the 25-point slam. Did anyone get there? If you did then all we can say is “Wow!” How did you do it?
P.S. No emails, please, about how you bid 4♠ over 3♥ … Exclusion Key Card Blackwood … and then zipped into the slam. It seems to us that, over the long run, this sequence is more likely to get you into 5♥ down one than 6♥ making. But that’s no way to talk to our site visitors, what we meant to say was “Congratulations if you got to slam!”
South will surely play this one in 3♥ or 4♥ depending upon how feisty she gets with her rebid. It takes a trump promotion for the defense to score their 4th trick. For example, an opening Spade lead to the Ten and Jack. A♥ followed by the Queen to West’s King. Minor suit shift to East’s Ace, and a Spade back. Declarer ruffs high, but now West score a second natural trump trick.
Not much to the auction. The defense has 5 top tricks, but one might get away if North finds an opening Diamond lead. Declarer can play safe for down one by going up with the Ace, or he can risk the dreaded -200 by finessing the Queen.
Here’s another potentially grim scenario for Declarer. North starts with the A♥ and shifts to Q♣, followed by a low Club to South’s King. South cashes the K♥, then the A♣ and leads a 4th round of Clubs. This puts Declarer to the guess. He has three choices here: (a) Ruff with the Ten, hoping that the J♠ is with South. A losing line as it happens. (b) Ruff with the Ace, then play trumps from the top, playing for 2-2 or singleton Jack somewhere. This line is a winner. (c) Ruff with the Ace, then run the T♠, playing North for the Jack and catering for Jxx. This is also a winning line. The a priori odds of these three lines are 50%, 53% and 45% respectively, but these odds get somewhat changed by the knowledge that South started with longer Clubs. But, you don’t need to be a mathematics professor to play bridge, just be a good guesser!
For the Mathematically Inclined: Let’s set aside which of those three lines works on the actual hand and figure out which is best in theory. We don’t know much about the red suit distribution except that both defenders have at least two Hearts. But we do know that South started with 4 Clubs and North only 2. That leaves 9 “vacant places” in North’s hand for the J♠, and 7 in the South hand. In other words, 7 times out of 16, or 44% of the time, South has the J♠, the other 56% North has it. So Line (a) is only a 44% chance, quite a big drop from the aforementioned a priori odds of 50%.
Calculating the adjusted odds of the other two lines is beyond our modest mathematical capabilities. Because of the Club situation we’d expect Line (b) to drop a little and Line (c) to increase a little due to the slight extra probability of 3-1 breaks. But we don’t have the science to be precise here.
Against 1NT a low Diamond opening lead is clearly indicated from the East hand, and Declarer’s life is in danger of becoming utterly miserable. After 5 Diamonds are cashed, East shifts to a Spade (no doubt influenced by Partner’s signals). Declarer ducks the first Spade, wins the second. Now, it is surely right to play A♣ and out a Club. If the K♣ is with the long Spades we could be talking down four (!) but, as it is, this holds the defense to just 7 tricks. Misery avoided, and supplanted by a joyful down one.
Even vulnerable it seems right for North to balance, and the choices are: (a) As he is a passed hand, North can bid 2NT for the minors; (b) Or, North can make a simple take-out Double.
We much prefer the Double. It will gain whenever Partner is lurking with a Spade stack, and when Partner has 5 Hearts. What is the down-side to the Double? Using standard methods, there’s the danger that N-S will end up in a 4-3 Heart fit instead of a 5-4 or 5-3 Diamond fit. So, on balance we like the Double, and we like it even more if we are playing the Scrambling 2NT (see below) opposite balancing Doubles.
Even though we like North’s balancing Double, she didn’t choose the most opportune deal for it. 3♣ is a perilous contract and is in serious danger of going down two for -200. Declarer will have to guess the Diamonds at the very least to go down just one.
System Note: There’s a useful little device called the Scrambling 2NT which is especially designed for the N-S situation here. They are at the two-level, North makes a balancing Double, and South uses 2NT as a “scrambling bid” … she doesn’t have a clear preference for the trump suit and uses 2NT to convey that message. Please see the Bidding Quiz for more on this interesting, but somewhat obscure, subject.
Leading Partner’s suit does not look very attractive here, so North will no doubt lead a low Spade. South wins the Ace and shifts to a Diamond, won by Declarer’s King. Next is the Club finesse, which surprisingly wins. Then, a Diamond to the King, a Club to the King, a Club finesse, cash the A♣ and the K♠. Now, Declarer can count 8 tricks and can make a 9th trick by exiting a Diamond, forcing South to lead a Heart in the end-game. This line of play gives Declarer 9 tricks, but, of course, South could have done better by jumping up with the Ace on the second round of the suit and exiting another Diamond. Now, it is Declarer who is forced to break the Heart suit, and that is just 8 tricks for Declarer.
Anybody for a 2♦ overcall with the North hand? Not us, please see the Bidding Quiz.
Against 2♥, North does not have an attractive lead, and the Spade Three looks like the least of evils. Declarer calls for the deceptive Ten from the board, but South is not fooled by that one … she knows from the bidding that Partner cannot have more than 2 Hearts and 3 Clubs, so if she had led a singleton Spade that would leave her with 7 Diamonds … as she also appears to have something close to an opening bid (at least), surely with that hand she would have been heard from in the auction. Does that mean that South should play low and watch Declarer’s singleton Ace come tumbling down? We don’t think so! It doesn’t look as if Dummy has enough entries to take two subsequent ruffing Spade finesses and then to be able to enjoy the established Spade. So, even though South has studiously concluded that a small Spade will work 95% of the time, she should play the Jack anyway, better to be safe than clever.
West wins his A♠, and now the best line is surely to go after a Club ruff on the board. So, a Club to the Ace, followed by a low Club. South plays low, now what? There are not that many Souths who can nonchalantly play low in this situation when holding the King. If you trust that to be the case with your actual South then it is surely better to play low, hoping for North to have started with the King and just two others. This works well and 9 tricks will materialize from this sequence of plays: Spade to the Ace Club to the Ace Club ducked to North’s Jack Q♥ to Dummy’s King Losing Diamond finesse Another Heart won by Declarer’s Ace Club ruff, felling the King Another Diamond, etc The defense scores just 2 Diamonds, a trump, and a Club.
This hand will prove extremely troublesome for N-S. North has a normal light opening bid, and now South keeps bidding her majors. It’s hard to see South stopping short of game once North opens, and she was unlucky to be given a Dummy without a single useful card.
West is on opening lead and seems pretty clear to lead the A♦. True, it might get ruffed and set up some Club and/or Heart pitches on Dummy’s Diamonds, but it seems like a better shot than the alternative of a Club lead. After the A♦, West continues with a Diamond, ruffed by Declarer. Now, A♥ and a low Heart, won by East. By now East will be pretty certain that South started out with 7-5-1-0. He’ll exit a Heart (praying that West’s trump is not the Two!), ruffed by West. Now, West exits a Diamond, and Dummy’s Jack is ruffed by West and overruffed. Next a Heart ruff on the board, and the defense still has two trump tricks to come. Down two!
If West makes the mistake on opening lead of a low Club, Declarer escapes for down one.
Bidding Afterthought: Anybody for a 1♣ opening bid? Quite tempting, eh? Bid the suit we’d like to be led! If we make this off-center bid, we’ll be obliged to rebid Clubs next time around, and the auction might get messy if Partner happens to have the goods instead of the opponents. We are not exactly recommending this bid, but consider us tempted.
White against red, opposite a passed Partner, it’s awfully tempting to jump in with a 3♣ preempt on the South hand. But, on this occasion, it leads to disaster! West passes, and must do so smoothly to avoid ethical issues. East reopens with a Double, suspecting that West is about to make a penalty Pass. The final number is -800 for N-S when South goes down one too many. It turns out that North would have done better to bail out of 3♣ doubled to 3♠ but that was not exactly obvious.
West might well have bid 3NT over 3♣, and that will also turn out to be a good board. 11 tricks are available in both No Trump and the 4-4 Heart fit, so that aggressive 3♣ preempt ended up giving E-W nothing but winning options.
We really, really hate to open 1♦ on those 4-5 minor suit hands, and we have various defense mechanisms against having to make that bid (please see Bidding Quiz). But sometimes the defenses fail us and it really has to be done, albeit with some reluctance.
What an opening lead dilemma for North! At IMP’s, get that low Spade on the table post-haste! But at matchpoints? Such a more difficult decision. A low Spade may well be the lead most likely to beat the contract, but it’s also the lead most likely to blow a trick. IMP’s is about making contracts, matchpoints is far more about maximizing overtricks and minimizing undertricks. Dr Goodlead echoed this thought. “No-brainer at IMP’s, but at matchpoints I think I’d lead a low Heart, the lead least likely to blow a trick”. For once, the good Doctor has failed us, but we do agree with his analysis.
Some players, in response to Stayman, deny the possession of a 4-card major when their hand is square. We encountered this situation on Board 16, November 15th, please follow the link for a refresher course. North is close to bidding 4♠ directly over 2♠, and no doubt would have done if she were playing IMP’s.
West has a pretty clear-cut J♦ lead in our view, but this turns out to be disastrous. First of all it gives away the Diamond suit, secondly it gives Declarer the timing to get a Heart loser away on the Diamonds. A Heart lead beats the contract, but Jxxx is a notoriously dangerous lead, and not very appetizing, especially when there is a seemingly much safer alternative.
If South declines to show her 4-card major she’ll end up in 3NT, of course. Again, the Diamond lead is disastrous, and the Heart lead is likely to defeat the contract. On a Heart lead East’s Ace wins the first trick, Declarer holds up her K♥ until the third round, then she loses a Spade to the Ace. West cashes the 13th Heart, exits safely with a Spade. The Spades are cashed and West is squeezed in the minors. He must smoothly bare the K♣, now Declarer cashes 3 Diamonds ending on the board. Decision time! Should Declarer play for the drop in Clubs or take the finesse? Of course, by now, East in known to have started with 6 Clubs, and the odds surely favor one of those being the King. So, unless West was in visible pain on the run of the Spades, we’d go wrong here. We’d finesse the Queen, and lose the last 2 tricks. Down two!
There’s one possible clue from the bidding. If East started with 6 Clubs to the King, would he double for a Club lead? We don’t think that we would, and don’t consider that to be strong enough evidence to go against the odds.
East’s 2♦ was a “waiting” bid, which could be made on a multitude of hand types, including some good hands which do not have a suit worth bidding. 3♦ was the so-called “second negative”, confirming a bad hand.
It turns out that 3NT is a lucky make. First of all, Dummy has the magic 9♣ as an entry, and second, the Spade finesse works, and that will be 9 tricks. Actually, it could even be 10 tricks unless South is at the top of her game. North leads the 5♦, Declarer craftily calls for the deceptive Nine, and South must decide whether to play low (hoping that Declarer has the singleton Ace) or high (in case Declarer has no Diamond stop). It would certainly cause great hilarity (for E-W, anyway), if South played low and it turned out that the 62 opposite J97 had produced a stopper! On the other hand, she would squander a trick if the plays the King under the stiff Ace.
Any clues from the bidding? Yes, we think so. We’d expect West to have 6 Clubs for this auction, which means that North has just one. We’d say that this makes it more than likely that Declarer has a 5th Diamond. Sure, she might be 4-4-4-1, and she might have selected a Diamond in preference to her 4-card majors, but we think it’s more likely that she chose a Diamond because it’s her longest suit. One more clue … might West not have suppressed his Club suit with 3-2-2-6 or 2-3-2-6 distribution and gone straight for No Trump? So, weighing the evidence we would risk some E-W hilarity by playing low. This is the winner, holding Declarer to 9 tricks.
Back to the bidding. We really hate to open 2♣ when our rebid is going to be 3♣ or 3♦, those auctions are notoriously inefficient. Therefore, we are inclined to open one of a minor with these hands whenever possible, on occasion even when holding as many as 22 HCP’s, taking the chance that the hand will not get passed out. Does this mean that we would open the West hand with a 1♣ bid? Actually, no! We are happy to take our chances in 3NT regardless, so the sure way to get to game while still keeping slam options open, is to open 2♣. But, change things so that the West hand has a small Diamond singleton, maybe with the A♥ instead, and now we don’t have a unilateral No Trump hand … with that 22-pointer our preference would be 1♣, the bid that risks getting passed out when we can make game, but also the bid that gives us the best chance to get to the right game (or slam).
We often pass those square 12-counts, but North has three “quicks”, so we’d also open 1♣. After that beginning, it seems normal for N-S to subside in 3♠.
Against 3♠, East will lead a Diamond, to West’s Queen and the Ace. Now, one straightforward line is to lose a Spade immediately (keeping the Ace in reserve allows Declarer to maintain control of the hand if trumps are 4-1). West wins and returns a Diamond won by Declarer who now cashes AK♥, and loses a Heart. This line results in 4 tricks for the defense … two trumps, a Hearts, and a Diamond.
Can Declarer do better? Actually, yes. We are still trying to figure out whether the following is brilliant Declarer play or just Double Dummy analysis, so you be the judge: East leads a Diamond to West’s Queen and Declarer’s Ace A♥, K♥ and out a Heart, won by East (it doesn’t help West to ruff) Now, East cannot continue the Diamond attack, and the Diamond loser eventually disappears on the established Hearts.
Upon further review, we have concluded that this is not Double Dummy play, merely farsighted play, giving Declarer an extra chance for a 10th trick whenever West is 2-2 in the majors. Nicely done, Ms North! By the way, have you noticed how often it’s right for Declarer to play on her side suit before drawing trumps? It’s been something of a recurring theme in recent weeks. Or maybe it’s just a recurring theme in bridge!
E-W manage to stay low and in their best suit to boot. South leads the T♦, covered by the Queen, King, Ace. Next, a Club to the King, and a Club back to the Ace. Declarer’s plan is to ruff those Club losers, but he has been warned by South’s 2♣ overcall that North started with just 2 Clubs. So, he ruffs the third round of Clubs with the King, crosses back to hand with a Spade ruff, and ruffs another Club … he knows it will be over-ruffed but hopes (in vain, as it happens) that it is by the defender with the third trump. This line of play brings in 9 tricks, Declarer losing the over-ruff and 3 natural trump tricks.
West is faced with the same situation as South back on Board 27, namely that Partner has bid Stayman and he has a 4-card Spade suit with a square shape. As before, we refer you to last week’s Bidding Quiz, Board 16.
In 4♠, Declarer makes 10 tricks with the aid of a Heart ruff in Dummy, and the successful Club finesse. However, he will want to postpone the Club finesse for a while, playing 3 rounds of Diamonds first, in the hope that this suit is 3-3 and the Club finesse is unnecessary. But, eventually, on the lie of the cards, he’ll have to resort to the finesse.
Now here’s a novel situation! First, South makes a Negative (take-out) Double, then East comes right back and also makes a take-out Double. Against 3♥ North might almost be justified in absolutely refusing to make an opening lead, all the options look like cruel and unusual punishment. But whatever she chooses it looks like 9 tricks.
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