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Hand Analyses November 15th, 2006
We start with an unhappy contract for N-S, where getting out for down one will be an achievement. North shows 20-21 HCP’s, South says “Big deal!”, and East leads a Spade to the Queen and King. Declarer does best to go after the Hearts, starting with the Queen, which East must duck to stop the entry to Dummy. Now, a low Heart to East’s King. At this point, the Spade suit is blocked and East is entryless. Furthermore, East will not know whether Declarer started with 2 or 3 or 4 Spades. In the circumstances, it looks best for East to exit safely with a Heart, the object of the exercise being to avoiding blowing tricks, as opposed to trying to set up tricks. Well, two can play at that game, so Declarer cashes her Hearts, and exits a Spade. East wins the Spade, and leads another Spade to West’s Ten.
By now, West is down to just minor suit cards, three in each suit. An attentive West will also know the exact layout at this point: - Declarer needs the AJ♦ and the A♣ to get up to her 20 HCP’s - Declarer surely has just 2 Clubs, otherwise she would have played on this suit earlier - Therefore, Declarer is currently down to: ♦ AJxx ♣ Ax.
West can make life simple by exiting with a Club, giving N-S a 7th trick. A Diamond shift keeps things in suspense for a bit longer, but all roads lead to 7 tricks, sooner or later the defense will be forced to lead Clubs.
Bold bidding by North, especially considering the vulnerability. But the suit is good and that always makes it that much harder for the opponents to make a low-level penalty Double, so we’d be inclined to risk the same bid. Anyway, the trick for N-S on this hand is to compete to 3♦ or 3♥, even though, in theory, perfect opponents can double either contract, and beat it one (with non-obvious defense) inflicting the dreaded -200 upon N-S. Anyway, the Bidding Quiz discusses the respective N-S bidding dilemmas, and, for the time being let’s assume that N-S manage to compete successfully to 3♦ or 3♥.
Against 3♦, it seems natural for East to start with the K♠, but that unfortunate lead allows Dummy to score a Spade ruff for Declarer’s 9th trick. To beat 3♦ East must find a trump opening lead (or cash a couple of Clubs, then switch to a trump), and this is most unlikely.
If South ends up in 3♥, she should also be down one, but, just like 3♦, it might well make. West leads a Spade, won on the board. Now, Declarer plays a Club, won by West’s Jack. West shifts to a Heart to stop the Club ruff in Dummy, and East is posed with a big dilemma: - if South has the A♣, and West the A♦, the killing defense is to take the A♥ and play another Heart - if South has the A♦, and West the A♣, the killing defense is to duck the first round of Hearts. However, if East guesses wrong it will be 100% West’s fault! Yes, West missed the chance of a really terrific play. He should win that first Club trick with the A♣! He can reasonably assume from the play of the Club suit that the K♣ is with East, so the extraordinarily far-sighted squandering of the Ace solves East’s later problem. One wonders how many Wests in the entire world would find this play at the table! Not many we suspect, and, sad to relate, not us! Playing the A♣ in this situation would truly be a thing of great beauty.
South’s hand only has 11 HCP’s and it does not pass the Rule of Twenty, but, conversely, it does have three “quick tricks” and that’s good enough for most players to open the hand. E-W did well not to push on to the 3-level, that will likely be down a couple of vulnerable tricks.
There’s not much to the play in 4♣ which makes 10 easy tricks.
A difficult auction for E-W. We don’t see anyway how they can stay out of game, and it’s probably just a question of whether they go down one in 5♣, or down one in 4♥. Just a miserable and depressing hand. Let’s move on.
N-S embarked on some adventurous vulnerable competing, and East must have been tempted to double 4♣, but instead he reasonably went for the 4♠ game.
We don’t usually like to make an opening lead of an unsupported Ace, but the risk of blowing a trick is reduced when Partner has raised the suit, and further reduced when we have a 10- or 11-card fit. So, South leads the A♣ against 4♠, gets her look at Dummy, Partner plays the Nine, and Declarer the Jack. What next?
What does Partner’s Nine mean? One common agreement in this situation (with Dummy having a singleton in the led suit) is for 3rd hand to give suit preference. She’ll play a low card to ask for the lower-ranking shift (Diamonds), and a high card to ask for the higher-ranking shift (Hearts). If she has no preference she plays a middling card. The Nine looks rather middling to us, though we cannot be absolutely sure … North might have started with K954, for example. Anyway, if that Nine really is high, there’s no rush to lead a Heart, Declarer’s Hearts aren’t going anywhere. We cannot continue Clubs, that’s a likely ruff-and-sluff for Declarer. That leaves a Diamond or a trump, and the safe exit turns out to be a trump. It won’t be entirely obvious that a trump is the right shift, especially looking at that entryless Dummy.
The card gods almost dealt us a delicious Play Problem! Suppose that North’s Spade holding is K43 and that Declarer holds AQT75. South gets out with the J♠ at Trick Two, won by Declarer’s Queen. How do you propose to make this contract? Easy! Cash AK♦, A♥ and lead a low Heart. South wins but has been stripped of her exit cards. Whatever she plays gives Dummy an entry for the Spade finesse. This line also works when South has 3 Diamonds … when in with the K♥, she can cash the Diamond, but now must give Dummy the vital entry, one way or the other.
Perhaps North should have competed here by showing a Spade one-suiter or a Spade-Diamond two-suiter. It turns out that 8 tricks are available in either suit.
But the play is much more interesting in 1NT! South leads the T♥, won by Declarer’s King. Next comes the A♣ and a low Club won by South’s King. Now, South cannot profitably attack Spades, and it doesn’t help for the defense to play a Diamond to the Ace, and a Spade through … Declarer ducks the Spades and the defense is held to just 5 tricks. Can the defense do better? Oh, yes! At Trick Two South must jettison the K♣! Now, it is North who wins the second Club, and she can lead Spades through … even if Declarer guesses, as before, to duck the Spades in an attempt to block the suit, North still has the A♦ entry to finish off the Spades. Down one! That K♣ play is so much easier to find looking at all 4 hands, of course.
South’s approach to bidding this hand will vary depending upon whether or not her side is playing Support Doubles and Redoubles. Please see the Bidding Quiz.
Careful play in 2♠ brings home 9 tricks. To see how, please see Play Problem # 90.
West’s 1NT is as good as it can be, some might even say too good, what with the 10 HCP’s, two Aces, and two Tens.
North leads a Heart, and South does best to duck this trick. She has no entries outside her suit, and the duck keeps her in touch with Partner’s hand. Declarer makes 9 tricks if she guesses the Spade suit, only 7 tricks otherwise. Fishing around for information before tackling the critical suit, Declarer plays K♣, Q♣, and a Club to her Ace. Now South is known to have started with 5 Hearts and 3 Clubs. Who has the A♦? North. How do we know? Well, surely South would have cleared the Hearts right away if she had a sure-fire entry. North did not open a Weak 2♦, so the odds are that South has at least two Diamonds. Where has all this fine detective work got us? Not very far! Despite all the deductive reasoning, there is plenty of room in both hands for the Q♠, so happy guessing!
South showed super-human restraint in not doubling 4♥, which was just as well because the contract turns out to be cold! Here is a possible line of play: Q♠ opening lead, won by Declarer Heart to the Ace Heart Eight overtaken by the Nine (necessary play!) Q♥ won by South’s King Club, ruffed by Declarer Cash J♥ Diamond to North’s Ace A♣, ruffed by Declarer’s last trump Now, South has the last outstanding trump, but Declarer has Diamond winners with both black suits under control. Note the importance of overtaking the Heart Eight. If Declarer neglects to do this, he’ll be short of entries back to his hand … he’ll have to use up the K♠, and will eventually lose control of the hand.
Anyone for a 2NT opening with the South hand? We much prefer 1♦ ourselves, those 2NT openers are death to minor suit slams, and this hand has a lot of potential in that regard. As for North, she might have tried a preemptive 3♦, please see the Bidding Quiz. But whether or not South opens 1♦ or 2NT, she’ll surely end up declaring 3NT.
Against 3NT, West leads a Heart, won by Dummy’s Queen. Now, if Declarer places the black Kings with West in view of his vulnerable overcall, she can have a lot of fun with this hand. At Trick Two she crosses to the A♣, then cashes all the Diamonds. What are West’s last 6 Cards? Two Spades, of course. But whether he keeps two Hearts and two Clubs, or 3 Hearts and the K♣, Declarer can cash A♠ and play a low Spade. The King comes tumbling down and that’s Declarer’s 9th trick. And now West is end-played, and that’s her 10th trick!
Is this line of play altogether too fanciful? Not really, it only requires that West has the missing black Kings, and we would say that this is more likely on the bidding than East having the K♠. Was it not rather lucky that West started with just two Spades? Actually, that wasn’t necessary, if she had started with, say, Kxx she would have been squeezed out of a Spade on the run of the Diamonds.
North’s 3♠ bid (instead of the more mundane 2♠) was a typical bid-‘em-up 3rd seat effort. West had an unappetizing choice after Partner’s Double, and may have guessed to make a penalty Pass. As for South, she must have thought it was Christmas come early when 4♣ was passed around to her. We would not have doubled in this situation either, there’s no guarantee that the opponents don’t have a better spot.
4♣ scores a surprising number of tricks. North leads Spades, Dummy ruffing the 3rd round of the suit. South can overruff or not, it makes no difference. Declarer will cash all his red suit winners, and South will be end-played in trumps. She’ll score just two trump tricks to go with Partner’s two Spades, and that will be down just one trick.
After 1♠, East has a good hand but no clear direction. He’s not sure whether they belong in Hearts or No Trump, and his hand is so good that slam is also a consideration. Yes, an ideal situation in which to wheel out a 2♣ Fourth Suit Forcing bid. West had a close choice between supporting Hearts on 3 small, or rebidding 2NT. East’s 3♥ was forcing and keeping slam options open, 3NT suggested an alternative contract, and East made one more slam try with 4♣ before settling for 4♥.
4♥ turns out to be a better contract than 3NT. In 4♥, Declarer has 10 tricks, and 11 if the defense does not shift to a Diamond in time. 3NT makes just 9 tricks if the defense leads a Diamond, won by South’s Ten … Declarer ducks twice, and later loses two Hearts, ending up with a total of 9 tricks. However, suppose that North guesses to lead a Club. Declarer wins in his hand, loses to the Q♥, and now South must find the dangerous-looking K♦ shift (it’s Declarer’s first bid suit) … failure to do so and it’s 11 tricks for Declarer and a top board for E-W.
That was a pretty bold Pass by West, gambling that his side cannot make game and that there will be at least a couple of vulnerable undertricks for Declarer. For more on this, please see the Bidding Quiz.
The play in 1♥ will be quite painful for North: Diamond lead to the King Cash A♦, followed by a Diamond ruff Club to the King, and another Diamond ruff Club run around and ruffed by Declarer K♥ to the Ace Spade to the Ace, and a Spade ruff K♣ ruffed by Declarer At this point, the defense has scored 8 tricks and still has the J♥ to come. Down four!
The modern style is for overcalls to have a slightly higher upper limit than in days of yore. Nowadays most experts are apt to overcall on hands with as many as 18 HCP’s, perhaps even a bit more under some circumstances. Is this a lead-in for us to suggest a 1♥ overcall by North, with his paltry 15 HCP’s? Actually, no! We like Double here, keeping the Spade suit in the picture … if South bids 2♣, we can bid 2♥, showing a strong hand with Hearts. Normally, this sequence would show a tad more in the way of HCP’s, perhaps, but the hand does have excellent playing strength.
Against 4♠, West will perhaps lead a low Club or a low Diamond, and Declarer will go after the Heart suit early in the play. Let’s assume a low Club lead … here’s how Declarer makes 11 tricks: Club lead, ducked in Dummy just for the heck of it, won by East’s Queen Another Club, won by Dummy’s Ace Diamond to the Ace Heart finesse, followed by a Heart ruff Spade to the Ace, and another Heart ruff Cash K♠ Ruff a Diamond Run the Hearts, letting West ruff in at his leisure. Note that it is essential to play on Hearts immediately, before trumps are drawn, otherwise Declarer will not have enough entries back to Dummy to enjoy the established Hearts.
Dr Goodlead found the opening lead of the Heart Eight by the way. An interesting (but also dangerous) gambit, made on the premise that the bidding has placed most of the high-card strength with North. This tricky lead may well cause Declarer to play for a ruffing Heart finesse instead.
North decided to open his 4-card Heart suit in third seat, primarily for the purpose of lead direction. South’s 2♣ bid was the Drury convention, showing a good (passed) hand and Heart support, and inquiring whether Partner’s 3rd seat opening was light or not. In the featured auction, the 2♥ response said “Not really!” This convention is almost universal in the United States, but don’t try to use it on your next vacation in London … it’s banned there, as it is considered to be a “psychic control”. But, when legal it’s a most useful convention, and the issue on this auction is “Do you play Drury in competition?” … the relevant auctions are when they overcall a Spade, and when they make a take-out Double of 1♥ or 1♠. Something that needs to be agreed in your partnerships.
The play in 2♥ is rather difficult to predict but it looks as if Declarer can scramble 8 tricks in various ways.
Some players don’t bother with Stayman when they have a square distribution on the grounds that there hand will produce no ruffs. True, but maybe it is Opener’s hand that can produce a ruff or two. We normally do use Stayman in this situation, but there is a useful device available for those who have a morbid fear of playing in 4 of a major with square mirror distributions. Please see the Bidding Quiz.
South will probably lead a Club against 3NT, which turns out to be the best lead for the defense. This is a pretty hand, please see Play Problem # 91 for how things might develop.
In the play of 3♦, Declarer can wrap up 11 tricks if he can only avoid 2 Spade losers. Can he? North will lead a Club, won by South, who will probably continue the suit for want of better. This is ruffed on the board. Now, Declarer will try to ruff out the K♥, hoping that South started with Kxx (not a bad ploy, considering the bidding). So A♥, then ruff a Heart, cash a high Diamond, ruff a Club, ruff a Heart, and draw the last trump. The K♥ did not come down, of course, so now Declarer must play on Spades. He should lead a Spade to the Ace, ruff another Heart, and then must make his Spade guess.
By now, South is known to have started with 2-3-2-6 distribution, and all that Declarer has to do is to decide which of the following N-S layouts is more consistent with the bidding: North South North South ♠ J654 ♠ KT ♠ K654 ♠ JT ♥ K9653 ♥ J87 ♥ K9653 ♥ J87 ♦ J ♦ Q4 ♦ J ♦ Q4 ♣ Q73 ♣ AKT864 ♣ Q73 ♣ AKT864 Given that N-S are not vulnerable we’d say that both layouts are consistent with the bidding. Any other clues? Yes! We have a rather unusual example of the Principle of Restricted Choice. South played the Ten on the first round of Spades, but, if she had been dealt the JT of Spades she might well have played the Jack, whereas, if she had been dealt KT she would have had a “restricted” choice, she would have to play the Ten. So, we’d finesse the Nine. This forces the King and the crowd goes wild!
Advocates of the Law of Total Tricks will cringe at that 2♠ bid with just two-card support. They’ll say that it may cause North to over-estimate the number of trumps her side has, and consequently she is likely to over-compete. They have a point, of course.
One of the good things about over-competing is that sometimes the opponents under-defend. The winning defense against 3♠ is virtually impossible to find … A♣, ruff a Club, back to the A♦, ruff another Club, and now the A♠ is still to come as the setting trick. On other defenses 9 tricks are made.
Yes, E-W should have competed to 4♦, and we’d blame West for not doing so. He doesn’t have much in the way of defense, he has an extra trump, nice distribution, and he’s non-vulnerable. Forgive us when we respectfully suggest that passing out 3♠ was quite feeble.
We don’t know about you, but we would open 3♦ with that South hand. Look at the vulnerability! 3♦ is the winner, giving E-W nothing but losing options: - They can pass it out, and if they are at the top of their defense game, they’ll nip it a trick but still get a bad score. - East can compete to 4♣ but that’s too high and it could get even worse if West, not unreasonably, takes a call over 4♣.
In the featured auction, 2♦ made things altogether too simple for E-W. East came in with a 3♣ call, and West didn’t have quite enough to participate in the proceedings, and they stayed low in a makeable contract. At this vulnerability it really does pay to exert a little extra pressure!
If N-S let E-W buy it in 3♣ it will be 9 easy tricks. If N-S play it in 3♦ things are way more interesting. There is a Heart guess to be made, of course, and there is also the opportunity for a defensive coup. See how E-W might conjure up a trump trick … they’ll cash one round of Clubs, and three rounds of Spades, ending in the West hand … now the 13th Spade is led, East ruffs, and West’s J♦ is now promoted … yes, it’s the so-called upper-cut.
Singleton Theory Addendum: Let’s assume that South is playing in some number of Diamonds, probably 3 of them, and that you, as Declarer, have to guess the Heart suit. We all know about that “Eight ever, Nine never” thing when it comes to ferreting out a missing Queen. Will you scientifically play for the drop? Or, mystically, take the finesse? Scientists will play for the drop, that’s what the odds dictate in this situation, there is no clear reason in the bidding or the play to do otherwise. But there is also this theory which says that if we have a singleton then probably so do they. It may not be mathematically sound, but a Mystic doesn’t care about that, and on this hand she will finesse the Heart (she’ll cash a high one first to cater for a singleton Queen with East). Bingo! Score up another triumph for the Mystics, this battle has been going on for several weeks, and the running score is now: Mystics 3 Scientists 1
An awkward hand for South. She might reasonably have bid Double, 2♥ or 1NT, please see the Bidding Quiz.
Either way, it looks as if N-S might end up in a No Trump contract, from one side or the other. It’s an extremely N-S friendly hand, mucho tricks can be made thanks to the obliging Heart situation. No shame for not getting to game, just bad luck that the layout is so benevolent! When we stay low we pray for bad breaks but here we don’t get them!
A less than exciting deal, 2♠ should stagger home when Declarer plays the Club suit correctly (lead the Jack, and when it’s covered win the Ace and finesse the Eight on the way back).
East might well have passed that square 12-count. Once he has opened the hand, E-W will inevitably get to the rather poor 3NT contract. We wish that the contract were destined to go down, allowing us to decry that opening bid and give a little lecture about the importance of downgrading one’s hand when one has square distribution, no Tens, and more Queens than Aces. But, sadly, 3NT makes, so we’ll have to save that one for another day. Virtue goes unrewarded on this one.
South will lead a red suit (let’s say a Heart, but it doesn’t matter which), won by North’s King, and the suit will be continued, won in Dummy. Next, the A♣ is knocked out, and another Heart comes back. Now, thanks to the highly fortunate Spade situation, Declarer is able to score 3 Spades, 2 Hearts, 1 Diamond and 3 Clubs.
West, with 3 quick tricks, chose to open his shapeless 11-count, as would we. East’s 1NT was forcing, and West was obliged to improvise that 2♦ bid. Those were two most fortuitous Passes by East, saving his side from disaster.
2♥ is good for 8 tricks, but, if East pushes on to 3♦ (as well he might) he’ll do well to score 7 tricks and that will be an ugly -200.
System Note: In a 2/1 framework, 1NT is usually “forcing”, but another option is for it to be “semi-forcing”. In the latter method, Opener is allowed to pass whenever he is minimum with 5-3-3-2 shape. The “semi-forcing” approach has one obvious advantage, namely that it allows 1NT to be the final contract when Opener is weak. On the other hand, it has the disadvantage that 5-3 Spade fits will occasionally get missed. Either method is quite playable.
A simple auction. North leads a Heart, Dummy goes down, and Declarer wonders how they missed the slam. He wins the Ace, leads a trump, and South shows out! Now Declarer is wondering if he can even make game! Please see Play Problem # 92 for this one.
North’s jump to 3♣ was invitational, of course. With both black Kings off-side it looks as if 3♣ will be down a trick with normal play.
East’s 2♣ was the so-called “Inverted Minor” convention, whereby 2♣ shows values and 3♣ is preemptive. As East is a passed hand, the 2♣ bid shows no more than a limit raise, and it also denies a 4-card major. West almost had enough to bid 3NT directly over 2♣, and East saved the day by bidding 3NT himself, no doubt influenced by the Aces, the Tens, and the 5-card suit. But it’s easy to see some E-W pairs missing game on this one.
North leads a low Heart, and Declarer should call for the Ten from Dummy. This holds, South playing the Four and Declarer the Three. At this point in the proceedings, North knows almost for certain that South started life with precisely 9xx of Hearts. How so? The logic is as follows: - South is supposed to give count in this situation … after all, if she cannot beat Dummy’s Ten, her attitude is already known! A good rule of thumb is that, if Dummy wins with the Queen or a lower card, it’s a count situation. If Dummy wins with the Ace we would normally give attitude, encouraging if we held the King or Queen. And if Dummy wins with the King, we encourage if we have the Queen. - When we signal we always make the signal as clear as is safely possible. When South played the Four was she showing an odd number from 974? Or an even number from 9742? Clearly it’s the odd number, because, with 9742 South can spare the Seven in order to make the signal unambiguous.
The best way of picking up the Club suit for one loser is to run the Jack, and if it is covered by North to run the 8 on the second round. This works out fine on the actual hand, but first Declarer must return to his hand. The easy route to 10 tricks is to finesse the Spade Ten at Trick Two, play the Clubs as described, scoring 3 Spades, 2 Hearts, a Diamond and 4 Clubs. However, it’s not obvious that this line is the best, and Declarer might well cross to the K♠ instead, holding himself to 9 tricks.
A “Two Over One” in competition shows decent values but it is not game-forcing. Therefore, South should be aware that North might pass a rebid of 2NT or 3♥. The first question is whether South should raise Hearts or bid No Trump … and the second question is “How many?” to bid. We like South’s actual choice (look at those lovely Spade fillers!), please see the Bidding Quiz.
West leads the K♠, ducked by Declarer. If West continues with another high Spade, life is easy for Declarer … she’ll win the second round, pick up the Heart suit, establish a second Spade by force, and score 11 tricks. However, suppose that, at Trick Two, West finds the fiendish shift of a Diamond. Declarer ducks this also, and now it doesn’t matter whether East continues Diamonds or reverts to Spades … either way, Declarer will win Trick Three, run the Hearts, and eventually East will be squeezed in the minors! 11 tricks the exotic way!
Note for Squeeze Enthusiasts: Can Declarer score 11 tricks if West finds the highly improbable Diamond lead? Yes! Diamond lead ducked, Diamond continuation won by the Ace. Now 5 rounds of Hearts and East must come down to 6 cards. He must keep 4 Clubs and a high Diamond, so that leaves room for just one Spade. Now Declarer cashes the A♠, and the KQ♣, and throws East in with a Diamond to lead a Club.
The obvious auction to a terrible contract. The defense has 7 cashing tricks, but will they get them? North has an obvious J♠ lead, and Declarer must make the play that is most likely to avert a Club switch. Definitely not the Queen from Dummy, that would be a most suspicious-looking play. It would be better to play low and hope that South routinely ducks if she has the A♠. Anyway, if N-S neglect to take their 7 tricks, Declarer will take his 10 tricks, and might even pseudo-squeeze North out of a Heart for 11 tricks.
South’s aggressive (but reasonable) bidding comes unstuck when trumps are 4-1, and the Diamond King is offside. But the contract has practical chances … West might find the unfortunate lead of a low Diamond … or Declarer might lead the J♠ from the board, covered by East’s Queen!
Perhaps North might have bid Diamonds yet again! 4♣ turns out to be an easy make, while 4♦ is likely to go down one in practice, when Declarer misguesses the trump suit.
The tail-end of this week’s hands has produced a whole series of routine auctions, and here’s another.
Against 3NT, the T♦ looks like a nice safe lead, covered by the Jack, Queen and Ace. This proliferation of honors on that first trick promotes Declarer’s mighty 8♦ into a second stopper in the suit, but the second trick is only possible if the defense persists with the suit, it cannot be established by Declarer playing the suit. Declarer has just 7 tricks, with Hearts being the only prospect for more. So, at Trick Two, Declarer crosses to Dummy on a Spade, leads a low Heart, and, lo and behold, the Queen appears from West. Now, now fewer than 3 Hearts are available, and 10 tricks in all. With that particular holding, such good fortune happens just 2.83% of the time!
East’s 3♠ was invitational, of course, and West, with those lovely Aces and Tens, was full value for his acceptance. All roads lead to 11 tricks.
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