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Hand Analyses 8th November, 2006
Normally, when we use Stayman, our hand is at least of invitational strength, but there are a couple of exceptions when we might want to try it with a weaker hand: - We are at least 4-4 in the majors and are willing to gamble that 2 of a major will play better than 1NT … if Opener responds 2♦, our plan is to bid 2♥, asking Opener to choose her better major (the so-called “Garbage Stayman”) - We are short in Clubs and are prepared to pass any response by Partner, even 2♦. Typical distributions are 4-3-5-1 or 3-4-5-1 or 4-4-4-1.
North was planning to pass the Stayman response, but East muddied the waters with that rather dubious Double. This bid is lead-directing, of course, but we are not sure that we like the call with such a fillerless suit. After the overcall of 3♣, North could hardly compete to 3♠, that would be interpreted as invitational, so she was obliged to pass. Now South deduced that her side must either have a fit in Spades or Diamonds so she tried 3♦.
It turns out that South would have done better to defend. 3♣ goes down a trick, but so does 3♠, at least on normal play. True, South, as Declarer, can hold her Diamond losers to one by playing A♦ and a low Diamond, but that is considerably against the odds and two Diamonds will surely be lost in real life, and 5 tricks in all.
South’s 2NT bid was not ideal, given the empty Diamond suit, but a jump raise in Spades was not an option with only 3 Spades. North’s 3♦ was New Minor Forcing, a method of checking back for a 5-3 Spade fit.
Against 4♠ it seems reasonable for East to lead the Q♦ or his singleton Club. If it’s the Q♦, Declarer will probably make just 10 tricks (though 11 are possible), but the singleton Club works poorly, giving Declarer an easy route to 11 tricks.
Some N-S pairs will end up in 3NT, with West on lead. He’ll probably lead a Heart to the Queen and Ace. How do you play the Clubs? The percentage play is to finesse the Ten, and the good news is that this works. However, the suit does not break, and Declarer has 10 top tricks. She can develop an 11th in Hearts, and West can put Declarer to the test by leading a low Diamond after winning the Q♥. If she goes for the gusto and flies with the King it’s 12 tricks, if she plays safe and inserts the Ten it’s 10 tricks.
North’s 2♦ bid was the so-called “Fourth Suit Forcing”. Do you play this as forcing for one round? Or forcing to game? We prefer the latter, not necessarily because it is theoretically superior, but because it is simpler (no need to worry later in the auction about which sequences are game-forcing and which are not). The featured N-S pair were obviously using the game-forcing method. Here’s a bid-by-bid explanation of the auction: 2♦ Fourth Suit Forcing (to game) 2NT Natural, typically 12-14 3♠ Natural, and too good just to bid 4♠ 4♦ Cue-bid in support of Spades 5♦ 0 or 3 Key Cards (1430 responses)
Both players had interesting decisions along the way, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz.
6♠ is a fine contract requiring either luck in Spades or else the Club finesse. The overall chances of success weigh in at around 70%, so justice is served when 12 tricks are made and the slam bidders get a well-earned good board.
A rather tame auction to a Heart part-score. The play is not exactly exciting, either. Eight tricks will be made on just about all lines of play, although North does have the opportunity to blow a trick on opening lead if she finds the (overly?) aggressive lead of a Spade.
We have no problem with East’s 2♥ opening, even though the suit is weak. And we especially have no problem when we notice that we are White vs Red. Yes, at that vulnerability we like to preempt on the merest of pretexts.
As West would you investigate game opposite the Weak Two? It’s fairly close, we’d say, perhaps a reasonable choice at IMP’s. But, at matchpoints, where there is less to be gained from chasing marginal games, we’d go quietly and settle for the part-score. But, as we said, it’s close … for example, move that Q♣ into the Heart suit and 4♥ is a fine contract.
Against 2♥, South leads the J♠, won by Dummy’s Ace. Declarer needs to lead Hearts from his own hand but it would be dangerous to get there with a Diamond, because of the risk of a Diamond ruff (for example, cross on a Diamond, lose the A♥, Diamond return, lose another Heart, and now South gets in with a Club to give North her ruff). The safe way to Declarer’s hand is a Spade ruff, and now the question is “How do we play the Heart suit?”. Here are our choices: - Lead the Jack, planning to finesse the 8 on the second round if South covers with the Queen … this gives us a slim (10%) chance of holding the Heart losers to one. - Lead towards the King … this line is less likely (6%) to achieve just one loser, more likely to escape three losers (by 76% to 66%).
What does this mean? Well, if we got to the ambitious game, we should lead the Jack, our best chance to make 10 tricks. If we rested safely in 2♥, we’re almost a lock for 8 tricks, and our best chance for 9 is to lead low towards the King. On the actual layout, the Ace pops up, so leading low results in 2 Heart losers, and 9 tricks … but those who were laboring in 4♥ will go down two in their futile attempt to make the contract.
Afterthought: We won the opening Spade lead on the board, and ruffed a Spade as a way back to our hand. When the King comes down we have another line of play. We can cross to the A♦, then lead the Q♠, forcing North to ruff (else a Club goes away). This weakens North’s trump holding in the (actual) case where she has 4 of them, and saves us from the danger of misguessing and losing three tricks in the suit. Well, not exactly! They can get an extra trump trick via a Diamond ruff … after the Spade ruff and overruff, South wins the A♥, continues Diamonds, then later North wins the Q♥, crosses to Partner’s A♣, and gets a Diamond ruff. Yes, it’s a hard-to-find defense by N-S but why give them the opportunity to shine at your expense?
West’s 2NT was the Jacoby 2NT, showing a game-forcing fit with Partner’s major. Then 3♦ showed shortness, 3♥ indicated at least some remaining slam interest in case Partner happened to have a good hand, 3♠ was a cue-bid, and 4♥ said “I don’t have much more to say”. To be sure, West could have cue-bid a minor control, but by not doing so he was warning against over-exuberance by Partner. For his sequence of the encouraging 3♥ and then 4♥, West could hardly have 2 losers in both minors, he was merely trying to be no more than lukewarm towards slam.
The slam turns out to be on a Spade guess, more or less, so nicely done if you bid this one and are also a good guesser. Then again, if you are able to guess the Spade you will probably get a good board in 4♥ making 6, so why risk disaster by bidding the slam?
System Note: The standard Jacoby 2NT responses have the benefit of being simple, but they are really not particularly effective. There are better methods out there … true, they are more complicated, and some learning work is involved, but if you and your Partner want to improve this part of your bidding system, please see the Link.
If your partnership plays 4-suit transfers, then 1NT 2NT is a transfer to Diamonds, and the standard 1NT 2NT invitational sequence is no longer available. The way around this is to bid 2NT via Stayman, with or without a 4-card major. In that scenario, the featured sequence was North’s way of inviting game and showing 4 Spades.
West is faced with a difficult lead problem against 3NT. Much as we dislike leading from Jxxx we confess that we would lead a Club here. That’s a disastrous choice, as it happens, as it hands Declarer her 9th trick. She still has to be a little careful in untangling her tricks, though … win the Club Ten, cash AQ♦, cross to the A♣, cash K♦, back to the A♥, and cash the Clubs.
We gave the opening lead problem to our old friend, Dr Goodlead. “Playing IMP’s I’d lead a Heart, looks like the best chance of beating the contract. But at matchpoints that lead is too dangerous, likely to blow a vital overtrick. I’d lead a Club but I’m not optimistic about this one”. And rightly so!
If North feels the urge to get that 6-card Heart suit into the auction, it seems more appropriate to do so with a bid of 1♥ rather than 2♥. After 1♥, East did not have quite enough to bid 2♣, and 1NT was the best he could do. Then when 2♠ came back around to him, having limited his hand, he was free to balance with 3♣.
It’s often a good idea to lead Partner’s suit, but it’s not always possible. By a process of elimination, South will no doubt lead a Spade, won by Dummy’s Ace. Now, with the Club finesse working, Declarer loses just a trick in each suit. Yes, the defender’s can organize a Heart ruff, but that is just ruffing Declarer’s Heart loser. The defense needs two Heart ruffs to do any good, and that is not achievable, at least not with East as Declarer.
It seems reasonable for E-W to end up in 4♠, and we would be quite astonished if any South found the immediately killing Heart lead. But there is also a chance to beat the contract with the K♦ lead. North must overtake and shoot back a Heart. Now Declarer has no quick way back to his hand, and will surely lose 3 minor suit tricks and a ruff … or else, if Declarer overtakes the J♠, he’ll lose three minor suit tricks and a natural trump trick.
Any thoughts on South’s first bid? Would you bid 1♠, or Double, or maybe even Michaels? Our South chose 1♠ (as would we), please see the Bidding Quiz.
North might have considered a 3♥ raise, but we think that would be an overbid. 4♥ is not much a contract, but, because of the friendly majors, no fewer than 11 tricks are possible in Hearts. Here’s one line of play: Diamond lead, ruffed by Declarer K♠, A♠, and ruff a Spade Heart to the Ace Spade pitching a Club, ruffed, let’s say, by West A♣, ruffed on the board Diamond (East must cover), ruffed by Declarer Last Spade, let’s say it is not ruffed Club ruff One more Diamond ruffing finesse, setting up a Diamond trick
Afterthought: Perhaps South missed the chance for a remarkable bidding coup. Over 2♦, he might have doubled. Both Double and 2♥ would show Hearts, but the Double also gives North the opportunity to pass for a penalty. Now, what a triumph that would be! We don’t recall ever penalizing the opponents at the 2-level, when we have a known 9-card fit of our own, and when our side has just a combined 17 HCP’s! 2♦ doubled is down at least one, probably down two in practice (it’s unlikely that Declarer will drop the stiff K♣). A N-S score of +200 will strangely tie those tables where a Heart part-score makes 11 tricks, but will be a good board anyway … getting 2♦ for +500 will be an outright top, of course.
We’d say that it was a close choice for East between bidding game in No Trump or Hearts. We’d be tempted by that T♠ to try 3NT, but on the other hand the Heart support is rather good and we do have a Club weakness. In 4♥, East makes 10 tricks easily enough, there’s not much to the play.
Note for Squeeze Enthusiasts: Suppose that East, seduced by that T♠, succumbs to the urge to bid 3NT. Now, a Spade lead holds Declarer to 9 tricks and a bad board. But South might be thinking to herself “Have I got a surprise for Declarer!” and lead a fourth-best Club. Now, let us savor South’s discomfort as Declarer cashes his 5 Heart winners (pitching a couple of Spades from his hand). South must come down to 7 cards in the end-game and these are her unpleasant options: - She keeps 2 Spades, 3 Diamonds, 2 Clubs … now, Declarer takes the Diamond finesse, it loses but a 10th trick is established in Diamonds anyway, and the defense can cash no more than 3 tricks - She keeps 1 Spade, 3 Diamonds, 3 Clubs … now, Declarer removes that Spade from South’s hand, exits a Club, and South is end-played in Diamonds. - She keeps no Spades, 3 Diamonds, 4 Clubs … now, Declarer cashes the A♠ and it’s more of the same. Making 10 tricks!
South did well not to compete further to 3♥ … that would surely be doubled for the dreaded -200. The play in 2♠ could go in all sorts of directions but the end-result always seems to be 8 tricks for Declarer.
This may be the most obscure auction of the day! We attempt to unravel its meaning in today’s Bidding Quiz. For the time being, let’s just say that South’s 3♥ bid showed a 5-5 hand, and that the following bids were cue-bids in pursuit of a Heart slam.
Anyway, whatever your methods (and they may be quite different to the featured auction), the bottom line is that this particular Heart slam is not a good one, you’ll need Hearts 3-2 and a successful Spade finesse. Not a good proposition in theory, but a top board in practice when the 35% slam rolls in.
South’s 3♠ was preemptive, of course … with a good hand (say, invitational or better) South would have cue-bid 3♣.
We’d expect 3♠ to be the final contract at most tables and it looks destined to go down a trick as the defense should score 2 trumps, a Heart and two Clubs. Is there any hope at all for Declarer? Yes, East might find the disastrous lead of the A♣! We hesitate to second-guess the opening lead, it’s such a difficult, and sometimes random, part of the game. But, leading an unsupported Ace against a suit contract is usually not a good idea (even in Partner’s suit), unless one of the following situations applies: (a) There’s reason to think that our winner(s) in that suit might go away if we don’t cash immediately (this is more likely to happen in high-level contracts) (b) We think we may be able to organize a ruff, either for Partner or ourselves (c) The other leads are even more unappealing We would lead the J♦ here, simple and safe.
If, as E-W, you managed to buy this hand in 3♣, then straightforward play results in 9 tricks and a good board. But shame on those N-S non-vulnerable opponents for not bidding to the 3-level holding 9 trumps!
There’s nothing wrong with passing the West hand in second seat, but we rather like that 1♣ opening bid. Of course, at favorable vulnerability, it’s always tempting to preempt the opponents but that would be dangerous with a hand that has two or three potential defensive tricks … Partner will also notice the vulnerability and might be persuaded to take a phantom sacrifice. Therefore, we take the constructive route, showing opening values (well, almost!).
Opposite an opening 1♣ or 1♦, a 1NT bid by Responder typically shows something in the 6-10 range. But, opposite an overcaller, we need a slightly stronger hand, let’s say around 8-11 HCP’s. Therefore, South’s hand here is at the lower end of her 1NT range and she declines North’s invitation to game.
Against 2NT (or 3NT) West leads the Q♣, and, when the Eight is played by East, South’s humble Seven becomes a second stopper. Declarer cashes the Q♠, and leads a Diamond towards the board. West hops up with his K♦, cashes his 3 Club winners (otherwise they’ll wither on the vine), exits a Heart, and it’s 8 tricks for Declarer. This should be a good board for N-S, some pairs will surely end up in 3NT which fails when the Heart finesse loses.
Good work by North to make that “pre-balancing” Double and push E-W to the 3-level. After that Double, East knew that he would bid 3♠ eventually, so he bid it directly. Note that 3♠ is not invitational to game here, it is purely competitive.
That 3♠ bid turns out to be well-judged because N-S make 3♦, losing just the 4 Aces. As for a 3♠ contract, Declarer must lose 2 Clubs and a Heart, and can look after his Diamond losers with ruffs on the board. But there are still two trump losers, and that will be down one. Did we say “well-judged”? Well, only because South forgot to double 3♠. A penalty Double here is not guaranteed to succeed, but it does look most tempting, don’t you think? We’d expect to score at least half a dozen +200 scores for every -670, pretty good odds, especially at matchpoints.
E-W should get to 4♥, one way or another, but will they make this contract? This one is presented in Play Problem # 89.
That 2♥ bid was not without its dangers, and in fact would be down 2 via a trump promotion. But North reasonably competed to 3♣ via Lebensohl. That 2NT bid was an instruction for South to bid 3♣, after which North would further describe her hand. In this case, North just wanted to play in 3♣.
In Clubs, with South’s magnificent hand, and 2-2 trumps, no fewer than 11 tricks are made.
Another possibility is that West will remain silent, and for once silence will be golden. North will probably pass, as 1NT looks like it will score better than a Club partial. But, alas for N-S, 1NT does not play well at all, as a Heart lead holds Declarer to just 7 tricks.
SAYC Note: Lebensohl is not a part of SAYC, and that leaves North with no convenient bid (3♣ would be forcing). So, North will no doubt pass (reluctantly) and N-S will collect their +100 penalty and a below-average board.
Some Easts might bid 2♣ over 1♦, but Double keeps more options open. But the N-S Diamond fit wins the day, making 10 tricks thanks to the most friendly Diamonds
North has a pretty grim hand from which to lead, and she’ll surely choose a low Heart as the least of evils. South wins, cashes the A♣, and now can beat the contract if she guesses to lead a Diamond back … Partner will cash the K♣, give South her Club ruff, and, with a trump trick still to come, that will be down one. However, if she guesses to return a Heart, Declarer will scramble 8 tricks.
Would you have kept silent with the North hand? After the 1♠ opening, we don’t think that this is a vulnerable two-level overcall, but many will disagree and the auction might well go like this:
West North East South 1♠ 2♣ 2♠ Dbl Pass 2NT Pass 3♦ Pass Pass Pass
South’s Double is Responsive, showing the unbid suits. The normal Spade lead against 3♦ will prevent Declarer from misguessing that suit, but, even so, Declarer is down one.
After North’s Reverse (showing significant extra values) South’s jump rebid was intended to show a good suit rather than a good hand, the objective being more to find the right game than necessarily being a slam move. After 3♥, North tried for 3NT (via 3♠), South offered belated Club support, and North settled for 4♥, a reasonable bid because the Spade suit looked dangerous for No Trump. However, it turns out that 3NT is the better matchpoint contract, as 10 tricks are available for both. Did N-S misbid, or were they just unlucky? We’d say that South was the culprit here, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz.
East does not have much of a 2♠ bid and in the 2/1 style he would perhaps be better advised to slow things down by bidding a Forcing No Trump followed by 2♠, as a slower and less encouraging way to raise Spades. Not that it matters on this deal, because West is going nowhere, and N-S have no convenient way of getting into the auction.
West can make his 2♠ contract if he establishes a Club trick and uses that for a Diamond pitch followed by a Diamond ruff. But that’s a big “if”, because the opening lead gives N-S the timing to set up their Diamond trick before Declarer can organize the Diamond pitch. All it takes is for North to lead a Diamond at Trick One. Will she? We really think that she should … leading a Heart or a Club from the unsupported Ace looks most unappealing … leading a trump from Jxx is downright dangerous (it could pickle the defense’s trump trick if Partner has Qx and Dummy has a high honor) … what else is left but a low Diamond? After the low Diamond lead to the Jack and King, Declarer will innocently toss out a Club, hoping that the defender with the Q♦ is either obliged to win the Club or mistakenly chooses to win it. On the actual layout, that is most unlikely … South wins the Club trick, sends back a Diamond, and it’s down one.
East chose to double 2♣ rather than bid 2♠, judging that his hand was not quite good enough to bid 2♠ directly.
In the play of 3♦, North will lead the Q♣, and Declarer has 3 Aces to lose, and a potential 4th loser in Hearts. Good defense will always hold this to 9 tricks (North must find a trump shift if Declarer plays on Hearts, and must later duck the first round of Spades). Will it be obvious to North to duck that first Spade? It should be. The play will start as follows: Q♣ to Dummy’s Ace, South playing the Nine Heart to the Jack and Ace A♦ and another Diamond, won in Declarer’s hand Low Spade and North does what? It was good play by West not to draw that last trump, depriving South of the chance of a clarifying discard. North must now decide whether Declarer started with 1-6-4-2 or 2-6-4-1. Surely, it is the former, and the clue is South’s play at Trick One. She would not play the Nine from 95 … she really should play the King from K9 … so surely she had K95.
Now here’s an auction that you can really sink your teeth into! We’ll set aside the E-W bidding for the Bidding Quiz, and merely say that South’s 4♠ bid could be made on a multitude of different hands … she could have a “real” 4♠ bid with game values … or, as here, a hand with lots of Spades and not much else … or even something in between, such as a simple limit raise in Spades, where taking a shot at 4♠ is an overbid, but it’s much closer to the truth than a feeble Pass. When the opponents preempt violently it is often necessary to compromise and improvise, and North should be aware that her Partner’s 4♠ bid was made under pressure and could cover a multitude of sins.
Anyway, E-W did very well indeed to sacrifice in 6♥, and it will be up to South to find the killing Club lead. We think that she should! It seems unlikely (but not impossible) from the bidding that the defense has any red suit tricks … there’s surely not more than one Spade trick (if that), and Clubs must be the best hope for the defense. South will also be aware that Partner had no opportunity to bid Clubs the way that the auction developed, she had no convenient way to show values in that suit or direct that lead.
Well done if South found the Club lead! This is the kind of hand that can break the hearts of men (and women) at a team game! Imagine this most dangerous scenario … you are South … you will shortly discover that your team-mates had a fine result, playing in 5♥, scoring +450 … in the meantime, defending 6♥ doubled, you lead a Club and score +100, winning 11 IMP’s … or, tragically, you fall from grace, lead a Spade, and it’s 13 tricks for the bad guys, -1310, losing 13 IMP’s. A swing of 24 IMP’s on the opening lead! Mamma mia!
That North 1♦ opening is a tad light, but we like it anyway. True, it’s in that Weak Two range point-wise, but the hand-type is quite wrong with those two side-suit defensive tricks. Anyway, regardless of what North does or does not do, E-W should cruise (or at least stumble) into 4♠.
Playing in 4♠, East must arrange to ruff 2 Diamonds on the board. A typical line of play might be: K♦ lead, won by the Ace Diamond to North’s Queen Trump to Declarer’s Ten Ruff a Diamond Lose a Club Another trump lead, won in Dummy J♥ to the Queen Ruff a Diamond Ruff a Club Ruff a Diamond Ruff a Club, and draw the remaining trump.
Can the defense do better by leading a trump on the go? As it happens, no. Declarer will win the trump lead, cash A♦, lose a Diamond, and the defense can never lead that vital third round of trumps.
Now, here is a controversial auction! Most Easts would open their hand 1NT and we wouldn’t fault that, there’s something to be said for making the “mainstream” bid, that way you get to the same contract as the rest of the field and have the chance to score a good board with your superior card play. But the 1NT opening will propel E-W to 4♥, a very poor contract indeed, destined to go down at least two tricks, however well you might play the hand. Well, we would not open this with 1NT, showing utter disregard for the mainstream! Please check the Bidding Quiz for this one. Staying low on this one is the winning strategy, and that starts with a fortuitous choice of opening bid by East.
Hello, you Wests! Did any of you count up to 18 HCP’s, and say “This is a 4♠ bid!”? No, we didn’t think so, the hand has way too many losers and dubious values, and 3♠ is plenty. But, either way, 4♠ will be reached at most tables, and it’s a fine contract. But will it make?
Dr Goodlead would start here with the T♦, not seeing much future in a Club lead. The Diamond lead is the winner! Down one when the K♠ scores on the 3rd round of Diamonds.
A less than enthralling deal, and proof positive that even computer hands are sometimes quite normal. We’d expect 9 tricks for Declarer, via a Club ruff on the board.
When South opens 1NT, North’s first reaction with her 2-count is “Get me out of here!”. She has two ways of getting out of there, for more of which please see the Bidding Quiz.
In the circumstances, 2♠ is a delightful resting place. West does best to lead a Diamond, Declarer then pursues Club ruffs on the board and, when the dust has cleared Declarer should be able to get out for down one.
East has a most muscular 2♦ opening, and West has definite game interest … all those lovely Aces, and a slow stop in Spades. In the featured auction, 3♣ showed a Club feature, and 3NT was then an easy choice. If E-W had been playing some other method (such as one of the many Ogust variants), then East would have found an encouraging response and 3NT would also be reached.
How does 3NT do? If North leads a Heart, then it’s 9 cashing tricks for Declarer and no prospect for more. But, if the defense goes wrong by attacking Spades and persisting with the suit, then a 10th trick will materialize for Declarer.
Here we revisit a recurring theme. Is West’s hand a 2♣ opening bid, or is it not? We say not, those big minor suit hands just don’t work well after a 2♣ opening bid (not that they work so wonderfully after a 1♣ bid either, by the way) … it’s enough to drive a partnership into playing a Strong Club system!
On the actual hand, opening 1♣ turns out to be quite hunky-dory. It will likely be passed out, much to the temporary distress of West … but all’s well when Dummy goes down with nothing but useless cards … 8 tricks are made, it’s a plus score, and a very good matchpoint result.
What happens if West opens 2♣? Here is one possible uncomfortable, awkward and utterly unimpressive auction:
South West North East Pass 2♣ Pass 2♦ Pass 3♣ Pass 3♦ Pass 3NT Pass Pass Pass
East’s 3♦ was the “second negative”, saying nothing about Diamonds, merely announcing a very bad hand. And the resulting 3NT was quite hopeless, of course.
As it happens, 5♦ is cold, but it’s a most lucky contract (needs 2-2 Diamonds with the Ace onside). And, using standard methods, virtually impossible to reach, anyway.
A routine auction to a sensible contract. Declarer can make 10 tricks in one of two ways, it all depends on the defense. If the defense leads trumps or Spades, 10 tricks are made by setting up the Diamonds. And, if the defense attacks Hearts then a cross-ruff can be arranged.
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