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Hand Analyses 8th November, 2006
Normally, when we use Stayman, our hand is at least of invitational strength, but there are a couple of exceptions when we might want to try it with a weaker hand: - We are at least 4-4 in the majors and are willing to gamble that 2 of a major will play better than 1NT … if Opener responds 2♦, our plan is to bid 2♥, asking Opener to choose her better major (the so-called “Garbage Stayman”) - We are short in Clubs and are prepared to pass any response by Partner, even 2♦. Typical distributions are 4-3-5-1 or 3-4-5-1 or 4-4-4-1.
North was planning to pass the Stayman response, but East muddied the waters with that rather dubious Double. This bid is lead-directing, of course, but we are not sure that we like the call with such a fillerless suit. After the overcall of 3♣, North could hardly compete to 3♠, that would be interpreted as invitational, so she was obliged to pass. Now South deduced that her side must either have a fit in Spades or Diamonds so she tried 3♦.
It turns out that South would have done better to defend. 3♣ goes down a trick, but so does 3♠, at least on normal play. True, South, as Declarer, can hold her Diamond losers to one by playing A♦ and a low Diamond, but that is considerably against the odds and two Diamonds will surely be lost in real life, and 5 tricks in all.
South’s 2NT bid was not ideal, given the empty Diamond suit, but a jump raise in Spades was not an option with only 3 Spades. North’s 3♦ was New Minor Forcing, a method of checking back for a 5-3 Spade fit.
Against 4♠ it seems reasonable for East to lead the Q♦ or his singleton Club. If it’s the Q♦, Declarer will probably make just 10 tricks (though 11 are possible), but the singleton Club works poorly, giving Declarer an easy route to 11 tricks.
Some N-S pairs will end up in 3NT, with West on lead. He’ll probably lead a Heart to the Queen and Ace. How do you play the Clubs? The percentage play is to finesse the Ten, and the good news is that this works. However, the suit does not break, and Declarer has 10 top tricks. She can develop an 11th in Hearts, and West can put Declarer to the test by leading a low Diamond after winning the Q♥. If she goes for the gusto and flies with the King it’s 12 tricks, if she plays safe and inserts the Ten it’s 10 tricks.
North’s 2♦ bid was the so-called “Fourth Suit Forcing”. Do you play this as forcing for one round? Or forcing to game? We prefer the latter, not necessarily because it is theoretically superior, but because it is simpler (no need to worry later in the auction about which sequences are game-forcing and which are not). The featured N-S pair were obviously using the game-forcing method. Here’s a bid-by-bid explanation of the auction: 2♦ Fourth Suit Forcing (to game) 2NT Natural, typically 12-14 3♠ Natural, and too good just to bid 4♠ 4♦ Cue-bid in support of Spades 5♦ 0 or 3 Key Cards (1430 responses)
Both players had interesting decisions along the way, for more on which please see the Bidding Quiz.
6♠ is a fine contract requiring either luck in Spades or else the Club finesse. The overall chances of success weigh in at around 70%, so justice is served when 12 tricks are made and the slam bidders get a well-earned good board.
A rather tame auction to a Heart part-score. The play is not exactly exciting, either. Eight tricks will be made on just about all lines of play, although North does have the opportunity to blow a trick on opening lead if she finds the (overly?) aggressive lead of a Spade.
We have no problem with East’s 2♥ opening, even though the suit is weak. And we especially have no problem when we notice that we are White vs Red. Yes, at that vulnerability we like to preempt on the merest of pretexts.
As West would you investigate game opposite the Weak Two? It’s fairly close, we’d say, perhaps a reasonable choice at IMP’s. But, at matchpoints, where there is less to be gained from chasing marginal games, we’d go quietly and settle for the part-score. But, as we said, it’s close … for example, move that Q♣ into the Heart suit and 4♥ is a fine contract.
Against 2♥, South leads the J♠, won by Dummy’s Ace. Declarer needs to lead Hearts from his own hand but it would be dangerous to get there with a Diamond, because of the risk of a Diamond ruff (for example, cross on a Diamond, lose the A♥, Diamond return, lose another Heart, and now South gets in with a Club to give North her ruff). The safe way to Declarer’s hand is a Spade ruff, and now the question is “How do we play the Heart suit?”. Here are our choices: - Lead the Jack, planning to finesse the 8 on the second round if South covers with the Queen … this gives us a slim (10%) chance of holding the Heart losers to one. - Lead towards the King … this line is less likely (6%) to achieve just one loser, more likely to escape three losers (by 76% to 66%).
What does this mean? Well, if we got to the ambitious game, we should lead the Jack, our best chance to make 10 tricks. If we rested safely in 2♥, we’re almost a lock for 8 tricks, and our best chance for 9 is to lead low towards the King. On the actual layout, the Ace pops up, so leading low results in 2 Heart losers, and 9 tricks … but those who were laboring in 4♥ will go down two in their futile attempt to make the contract.
Afterthought: We won the opening Spade lead on the board, and ruffed a Spade as a way back to our hand. When the King comes down we have another line of play. We can cross to the A♦, then lead the Q♠, forcing North to ruff (else a Club goes away). This weakens North’s trump holding in the (actual) case where she has 4 of them, and saves us from the danger of misguessing and losing three tricks in the suit. Well, not exactly! They can get an extra trump trick via a Diamond ruff … after the Spade ruff and overruff, South wins the A♥, continues Diamonds, then later North wins the Q♥, crosses to Partner’s A♣, and gets a Diamond ruff. Yes, it’s a hard-to-find defense by N-S but why give them the opportunity to shine at your expense?
West’s 2NT was the Jacoby 2NT, showing a game-forcing fit with Partner’s major. Then 3♦ showed shortness, 3♥ indicated at least some remaining slam interest in case Partner happened to have a good hand, 3♠ was a cue-bid, and 4♥ said “I don’t have much more to say”. To be sure, West could have cue-bid a minor control, but by not doing so he was warning against over-exuberance by Partner. For his sequence of the encouraging 3♥ and then 4♥, West could hardly have 2 losers in both minors, he was merely trying to be no more than lukewarm towards slam.
The slam turns out to be on a Spade guess, more or less, so nicely done if you bid this one and are also a good guesser. Then again, if you are able to guess the Spade you will probably get a good board in 4♥ making 6, so why risk disaster by bidding the slam?
System Note: The standard Jacoby 2NT responses have the benefit of being simple, but they are really not particularly effective. There are better methods out there … true, they are more complicated, and some learning work is involved, but if you and your Partner want to improve this part of your bidding system, please see the Link.
If your partnership plays 4-suit transfers, then 1NT 2NT is a transfer to Diamonds, and the standard 1NT 2NT invitational sequence is no longer available. The way around this is to bid 2NT via Stayman, with or without a 4-card major. In that scenario, the featured sequence was North’s way of inviting game and showing 4 Spades.
West is faced with a difficult lead problem against 3NT. Much as we dislike leading from Jxxx we confess that we would lead a Club here. That’s a disastrous choice, as it happens, as it hands Declarer her 9th trick. She still has to be a little careful in untangling her tricks, though … win the Club Ten, cash AQ♦, cross to the A♣, cash K♦, back to the A♥, and cash the Clubs.
We gave the opening lead problem to our old friend, Dr Goodlead. “Playing IMP’s I’d lead a Heart, looks like the best chance of beating the contract. But at matchpoints that lead is too dangerous, likely to blow a vital overtrick. I’d lead a Club but I’m not optimistic about this one”. And rightly so!
If North feels the urge to get that 6-card Heart suit into the auction, it seems more appropriate to do so with a bid of 1♥ rather than 2♥. After 1♥, East did not have quite enough to bid 2♣, and 1NT was the best he could do. Then when 2♠ came back around to him, having limited his hand, he was free to balance with 3♣.
It’s often a good idea to lead Partner’s suit, but it’s not always possible. By a process of elimination, South will no doubt lead a Spade, won by Dummy’s Ace. Now, with the Club finesse working, Declarer loses just a trick in each suit. Yes, the defender’s can organize a Heart ruff, but that is just ruffing Declarer’s Heart loser. The defense needs two Heart ruffs to do any good, and that is not achievable, at least not with East as Declarer.
It seems reasonable for E-W to end up in 4♠, and we would be quite astonished if any South found the immediately killing Heart lead. But there is also a chance to beat the contract with the K♦ lead. North must overtake and shoot back a Heart. Now Declarer has no quick way back to his hand, and will surely lose 3 minor suit tricks and a ruff … or else, if Declarer overtakes the J♠, he’ll lose three minor suit tricks and a natural trump trick.
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