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Hand Analyses 25th October, 2006
A little part-score skirmish with which to start off the week. North had the old, familiar 4-5 in the minors problem, and chose to open 1♦ in order to facilitate her rebid. One of the downsides of this approach is illustrated here … after North’s 2♣ rebid, South went back to Opener’s first suit, putting her side in the 4-3 fit instead of the 5-3 fit. And, it could have been worse, South would often do the same thing with 2 Diamonds and 3 Clubs!
In 2♥ East can make 9 tricks provided that he goes after a Club ruff on the board early in the play (before touching trumps, in other words).
After West’s Michaels bid, North’s Double showed a good hand, not a hand with Heart support (though many pairs do play that it shows Hearts) … a 2♠ cue-bid is available for showing support and a decent hand. East had nothing worth saying over the Double and South decided to show her 6th Heart rather than to keep the penalty option open, no doubt being influenced by the vulnerability.
Against 3NT, East will no doubt lead a Spade rather than try to guess which minor suit Partner holds. Declarer will duck this and win the second round. How should she play the Diamonds? Should she cash the Ace as a safety play? This would keep West’s Spades off play if he happened to have the singleton King. But that’s a bit of a long shot, and that line would lose a trick to various other suit combinations. No, better to run the Queen hoping for the best. Two cases to consider: Case A: East covers with the King and we play the Ace. Now, we’ll finesse the Nine on the second round of Diamonds … it’s unlikely that West has 3 Diamonds, but if he has we’d hate to let him in with the Ten. Case B: East does not cover the Q♦. What next? We’d suggest running the J♦ which will be a spectacular failure if West has Txx, but will pick up the Diamonds for no losers in the more likely event that West has Tx. Anyway, all roads lead to East scoring one Diamond trick and Declarer making 9 tricks.
Playing in Hearts, South can make tricks galore. Suppose that West leads a Diamond. Now, double dummy at least, South can make no fewer than 12 tricks! Here’s how: Diamond won by the Queen (doesn’t help to cover) A♠ and ruff a Spade Club finesse, the cash A♣ Back to the A♦ Ruff a Club Ruff a Spade Cash A♥ Exit a Diamond Now, at trick 11, East is end-played in trumps Yes, West can save a trick with the unlikely lead of a trump.
We wouldn’t blame West for preempting with 3♦ here, notwithstanding the vulnerability. This time, though, it will work out badly … North will pass, and then also pass the reopening Double. That will be a painful -500 for E-W.
More likely, N-S will come to rest in 3NT, and it seems to us that 10 tricks will always be made.
East’s Double was a Support Double, showing 3-card support for Partner’s Spades. It’s easy to see some E-W pairs missing this game … West might not invite with 3♠, there’s something to be said for 2♠ here … and, after West has decided to invite, East might get conservative with his square hand and poor trumps.
How does 4♠ do? Pretty well. The Spades can be picked up for no losers, notwithstanding the 4-1 break, and there will end up being one loser in Diamonds, and one in Hearts.
South’s original plan was to rebid 2NT after Responder’s bid of 1♥ or 1♠, showing 18-19 HCPs. Of course, South has only 17, but there is ample compensation in the long Diamonds. However, when the bidding gets back to her, West has thrown Hearts into the picture, so she rebids 3♦, hoping that Partner can make a move towards 3NT.
3♦ is the final contract, and with both Diamonds onside, and the K♣ also favorably placed, Declarer has only 3 obvious losers. Does that mean 10 tricks? No, there is one small problem, only one entry to the board and three finesses to be taken. Does that mean only 8 tricks? Not necessarily, South might get up to 9 in a couple of ways: - West might shift to a Club after cashing two Hearts, which gives South her extra Club trick without wasting that precious entry to the board … now the A♣ can be used to take a Diamond finesse and it will be 9 tricks. - Better defense is to play a third round of Hearts, leaving Declarer to do her own work. To see how she might make 9 tricks, please see Play Problem # 85.
We talk about West’s options in the Bidding Quiz, for the time being we’ll just say that, in the featured auction, 2♦ was a Jacoby Transfer, and 3♠ was a Splinter.
Some points in the play: - If South leads a Diamond, Declarer will be able to pitch one of those Diamond losers on the A♠ and arrange to ruff the other one on the board. Of course, if they win one Diamond and then shift to trumps, Declarer must revert to Diamonds to ensure the ruff. - If South leads a trump (the dreaded singleton trump lead, we don’t think so!), then the defense is ahead of the game and can stop the short hand ruff in Dummy. That’s no reason for Declarer not to lose a Diamond anyway, just in case they get deflected from the Heart attack. Let’s assume that the defense persists in extracting Dummy’s trumps. Now, when all hope of a short hand ruff is gone, Declarer must try a ruffing finesse against the K♠, and that proves to be a serviceable substitute. - Regardless of what South leads, how do you play the Clubs? Suppose that the opposing cards are 4-1. It would be good to cash the high honors in such a way that, when one or other of the opponents shows out on the second round we are in a position to finesse against the Jxxx of Clubs. By the time that we get to playing on Clubs, it will be apparent that North has the longer Hearts, so the plan should surely be to guess that if there are long Clubs out there they will likely be with short Heart hand. In other words, we play South for the long Clubs, and, not surprisingly, this is the winner.
What a troublesome hand for E-W! The hands just fit together so poorly and it’s easy to see how things might spiral out of control. We have struggled to construct an auction which might keep E-W in plus-score territory, but it wasn’t easy! No, we’re not entirely convinced by the featured auction either! Our prediction is that almost all of the E-W pairs will go minus.
1♣ looks like an obvious enough opening bid for East, but there’s something to be said for opening this hand 1NT. It’s a tad light, but it does have some preemptive value (especially against vulnerable opponents), and it does protect that K♠ from the opening lead. If East does open 1NT he may well land on his feet. South will be frozen out of the auction, and E-W may end up in this situation: West East Pass 1NT 2♣ 2♦ 2♠ ?? West’s sequence shows 5-4 in the majors and invitational values. That being so, East should probably just pass and hope for the best, there’s no reason to think that 2NT will play any better than 2♠.
Considering the horrible trump split, 2♠ plays remarkably well. North leads the J♦, and Declarer’s can scramble 8 tricks by going after Club ruffs. Win the A♦, ruff a Club, cross to the A♥, ruff a Club, cash K♦ and Q♦, and lead a Spade towards Dummy. The bottom line here is 8 tricks and a great result.
Speaking for ourselves, we wouldn’t hesitate to open that East hand 1♠ in 3rd seat, even though we are playing a 5-card major system. The odds are that the opponents will be on play and Spades are what we would like Partner to be leading.
How about West’s 1NT? Would you prefer a Redouble instead? It’s an option, but we don’t think the hand quite measures up.
Playing in No Trump, E-W will make a large number of tricks. Large here means 9, South has 4 quick tricks but that is all the defense gets thanks to the favorable Spade situation.
What does South’s cue-bid of 2♠ mean in this auction? Basically, it shows a good hand and nowhere to go. Cannot bid No Trump, too good for 3♦ (and anyway it’s a poor description of the hand), so what else but 2♠? This gets N-S to the obvious 3NT, and the obvious 9 tricks will materialize … N-S have two Spade stops, 5 Diamond tricks, and will need the Heart finesse for the 9th trick.
Usually, when we are in preempting mode, an 8-card suit suggests a 4-level preempt. But given the crummy suit and the vulnerability we’d say that 3♥ by East is more suitable on this hand. As for South, she might have doubled instead of bidding 3♠, but that nice suit is rather hard to resist, don’t you think? Now, a Roman Key Card inquiry reveals the absence of the Q♠ and North goes for the better-scoring 6NT.
In the play on 6NT, Declarer will score up 12 tricks … the Spade finesse will lose but the winning Club finesse will save Declarer’s bacon.
When the opponents get into a Two Over One auction, it’s usually best to keep out of the auction, but here East was justified in his 4♣ bid, as an attempt to create chaos and confusion for the enemy. In fact, chaos and confusion are a definite possibility, not many partnerships have discussed this sequence, we suspect. More about this one in the Bidding Quiz, for the time being let’s just say that North’s Double was intended as co-operative. Co-operative doubles are an advanced expert device which are used to transfer the blame whenever Partner guesses wrong. As in “It was co-operative, not take-out, why didn’t you just Pass?”, or “It was co-operative, not penalty, why didn’t you just bid something?”
How does 4♣ doubled do? Not too badly. South will cash a couple of Spades, shift to the J♦, ruffed by Declarer. Now the A♣ and out a Club, and eventually Declarer will need to guess the Q♥ correctly to get out for down just one. By decision time in Hearts, Declarer will know that South started life with 5-4-2-2 shape and 11 known HCPs. She won’t need the Q♥ to make up an opening bid, but we’d guess that she has it anyway, if only based on her known length in the suit.. Needless to say, this correct deduction is in no way influenced by being able to see all 4 hands!
Back to the bidding. There’s something to be said for North bidding 4NT when that 4♣ bid gets back to her. We think that this should be natural, typically showing a Club stop and a source of tricks in Diamonds.
OK, suppose that North actually does bid a natural 4NT and then plays it there. Will East find the killing Heart lead? We think he should, but having seen all 4 hands and suspecting that we might be biased, we decided to consult our old friend Dr Goodlead. It took him a microsecond to say “A Heart”, and then five minutes of agonizing while he decided between the exotic K♥ (hoping to squash Declarer’s singleton honor) and the prosaic low Heart. Eventually, the prosaic prevailed and a low Heart was the Doctor’s pronouncement. This works rather well, of course, but East still had to make one more good play … opening Heart lead to the Ten, Heart back to the King, and now East must cash the A♣ before sending back a Heart. Nicely done, down two!
Perhaps West should have made a sporting Double of 3♥, but instead East found himself in the difficult contract of 3♠.
Against 3♠, South will no doubt start with the A♥, and now suppose that she shifts to a trump. For what follows, please see Play Problem # 86.
A routine auction, surely the whole field will play this one in 3NT. West leads the Heart Two, a 4th best lead. When the opponents attack our weak suit in No Trump it’s often a good idea to duck a round or two in order to disrupt their communications. But on this hand ducking is the road to ruin. Suppose that East is allowed to win the first trick. Now, if he shifts to a Diamond, Declarer is down one, destined to lose a Heart, a Spade, and three Diamonds. To avoid this unpleasantness, Declarer wins the opening Heart lead, knocks out the A♠ and has 9 tricks.
We like South’s original Pass with that square 12-count, but it would be hard to argue too strongly about an opening 1♣ bid instead. After the Pass, N-S had to struggle to reach game … North bid just 1NT on the grounds that South was merely balancing and might have quite a weak hand … South tried 2NT because she could not have a better hand than she did … and North said “OK, why not?”
East could come up with good reasons to lead a Spade, a Heart, or a Diamond. Suppose that East leads a Spade to West’s Ace, and a Spade is continued. Now, Declarer crosses to Dummy with a Club, and takes the Heart finesse. When that succeeds, she plays on Diamonds for the 9th trick.
We’ll be the first to admit that this is not a convincing auction, and, furthermore, we will say that we don’t think much of that 3♠ bid. For more on this, please see the Bidding Quiz.
The play in 6♥ depends on bringing in the Heart suit for no losers. The percentage play is to cash the A♥ and K♥ and this has a 53% chance of success.
Singleton Theory Addendum: It’s been a few weeks since we had one of these. Some players (we are calling them the Mystics) hold the theory that when their side has a singleton, the other side usually does too, most often in the Mystics’ long suit, and causing them to flout the “Eight Ever, Nine Never” mantra. The situation has come up twice in previous weeks, and the Mystics are in the lead 2-0, much to the disgust of the Scientists who prefer to rely on logic rather than the occult. But this time the Mystics’ pet theory lets them down. Their singleton Diamond will persuade them to take the losing finesse in Hearts, tightening up the score to Mystics 2, Scientists 1.
Here’s a fairly common situation … North would like to compete to 3♥ with her minimum hand, but doesn’t want Partner placing her with extras. On other deals, she’ll have something extra (say the same hand with an extra King) and will want to invite game in Hearts. Obviously, it’s far from ideal to use the same 3♥ bid for both the competitive hand and the invitational hand. A variety of Lebensohl, commonly known as the Good-Bad Two No Trump, can be used to solve this dilemma. We discuss it more in the Bidding Quiz, and this week have added an article on the subject to the System Library.
Let’s assume that North plays in 3♥ or 4♥. East will probably lead a Spade, and that proves disastrous! Declarer gets to pitch a Diamond loser from Dummy, and then the favorable trump situation results in no fewer than 11 tricks. According to Deep Finesse the defense can do two tricks better than that, but it won’t happen in real life … East leads the K♦ (Declarer’s first-bid suit, no less!), then a Diamond to the Ace and another Diamond … now, East ruffs (with either honor, it makes no difference), promoting a second trump trick for the defense. The trump promotion would work equally well if West held Txx instead of Jx.
As West, what would you do with that 16-count, after RHO opens 1♣? There are a bunch of flawed choices, and our own preferred flawed choice is 1♥. We don’t want to pass, and it’s generally good to get our major into the auction. Now, over to East … yes, we like the choice of 1NT, which shows around 8-11 opposite an overcall. And, reverting to West, we’d say that, opposite that 8-11 1NT, he was somewhere in between a 2NT bid and 3NT.
We don’t envy South her lead problem. We’d probably lead the A♣, trying to get 4 tricks before they score 10 tricks (via, perhaps, 3 Spades, 5 Hearts, and 2 Diamonds). When the Dummy goes down, with only 4 Hearts, it’s necessary for Declarer to double hook the Diamonds for 9 tricks.
After West’s opening bid and North’s overcall, the auction becomes a battle between East and South. East’s plan was to double, and then to compete up to 3♣, which did not do full justice to the 5-card Heart suit, but it seemed like the best available option. South was prepared to compete to 3♠, but chose not to preempt with 3♠ (over the Double) because of her outside strength.
Against 3♠, the defense can score 2 trumps and a trick in each side suit, but in practice Declarer will make her contract. East will lead a Diamond, won by Declarer’s Ace, then she’ll run the J♥ around to the King, setting up a pitch for the Club loser. East can get a Diamond ruff, but it’s with a natural trump trick. It takes an unlikely Club lead to beat 3♠.
If East competes to 4♣, South will have to be on her toes to beat this contract. Suppose that South leads a Spade, won by Declarer’s King … now, a Heart towards the King, and South must see the danger of the Diamond pitch and jump up with the A♥, shifting to a Diamond before Declarer’s loser in that suit goes away on the A♠.
N-S will bid their thin game in Spades and it seems to us that West should lead the Club Ten. East will win the Jack, shift to a Spade to Partner’s Ace, a Club will come back, and Declarer will be held to 9 tricks.
Yes, N-S committed grand theft on this one! Here’s how they did it: - North’s 1♦: The correct bid in our view, it’s too good for a preempt - South’s 3♠: After East’s Unusual No Trump (showing Clubs and Hearts), some pairs (this N-S included) play that bidding the 4th suit is “competitive”, typically showing a 6-card suit and less than invitational values … exactly what South has. With a stronger hand she would cue-bid one of the opponents’ two suits. - North’s 4♠: Good bid! North is not confident that 4♠ will make, in fact she should rather doubt that it will, but she does (correctly) suspect that E-W can make a lot of tricks and that East will bid again if she passes. So she decides to apply some additional pressure.
Could the victims of this daylight robbery have done better? We think that the main culprit was that 2NT bid … East showed his two suits alright but he never showed his values. If North had passed 3♠ he was ready with a 4♣ bid, but after North’s boost to 4♠ he felt unable to take another call. After all, North would have bid the same way if she had held the same hand but with West’s A♥ also. Would it have been better for East to have overcalled 2♣? On this hand, probably “Yes”, but in all fairness we must say that this might lose the Heart suit. We don’t especially like that Unusual No Trump with East’s hand, but we are not pretending that 2♣ is a sure-fire solution either. Just an awkward hand.
Anyway, E-W end up defending 4♠ (mercifully undoubled), and in practice this will be down one. Can you see how a double dummy defense might beat it two? Yes, the unlikely opening lead of a low Diamond does that … East ruffs, shifts to a trump, wins the Club switch, cashes the K♥, leads a Heart to West’s Ace, then another trump.
South’s 2NT was Jacoby, showing a game-forcing raise in Partner’s Hearts. West’s 3♣ was hardly preemptive, but it was something that had to be said … with the right hand, East would have felt free to sacrifice in 5♣ at this vulnerability … with the wrong hand he might even find a Club lead.
Question time! What does that Double of 3♣ show? There seems to be no obvious consensus on this one, so our suggestion would be: - Double shows shortness in Clubs - Pass is ambiguous, probably denies shortness in another suit, and may be made on a hand that would love Partner to come back in with a Double - Therefore, after North passes, it behooves South to progress the auction with a Double, just in case North is in penalty mode. If South declines to do this, he will no doubt have exciting distribution and/or minimal defensive values.
The bottom line is that 6♥ was a great contract until West threw in that 3♣ overcall. After that, it became a rather poor contract, though it happens to make thanks to the doubleton Q♦. We’d expect almost the entire field to be in 4♥, scoring up +680.
It will take carefully timed Declarer play to make 3♣. South leads the Q♥, won by Dummy’s Ace. Declarer has a certain loser in each suit … also, he must avoid losing a second Diamond, and must ruff a couple of Hearts on the board. The best chance of avoiding that second Diamond loser is to find North with the Ace doubleton or tripleton of Spades, so the suggested line of play is: Q♥ lead, ducked Diamond shift to Declarer’s Queen A♣, then K♣ Heart to the Ace Spade to the King Spade ducked to North’s Jack Heart, ruffed on the board (doesn’t help South to ruff) Spade ruffed (felling the Ace) Heart ruffed Q♠, pitching a Diamond, etc. Any Declarer who finds this line of play in the heat of battle will have done very well indeed.
After North jams the auction with 4♣, East had no better option than to guess to bid 4♠. For once, Partner puts down a suitable Dummy, and 12 tricks are made with the aid of the Spade finesse.
System Note: Some partnerships play Texas Transfers opposite Partner’s 1NT, as in, for example, 1NT 4♥, transferring to Spades. Are Texas Transfers on in competition? Yes, but only when the opponents bid up to 3♣ … if they bid any higher, as in the featured auction, Texas Transfers are off.
East may have thought about passing 1♥, and then passing the re-opening Double for penalty, but his Heart spots were not really up to the job. Instead, he bid 2NT, showing around 11-12 with Hearts under control. West went to game based on the long Diamond suit.
In 3NT, Declarer has plenty of potential tricks, but the defense is able to get their 5 before Declarer gets to 9: Heart to the Queen, ducked Heart to Declarer’s Ace Losing Diamond finesse Heart to South’s King Spade shift, etc At this point, Declarer can count only 8 top tricks, and the Spade shift has established the 5th defensive trick.
Here’s an old favorite … what does the Double of 1♦ mean? The two main schools of thought are: (a) The Double does not guarantee both majors, and bidding 1♥ or 1♠ (instead of doubling) would show a 4-card suit; (b) The Double does guarantee both majors, and 1♥ or 1♠ may be bid with only a 4-card suit.
Both methods are playable, the second treatment is our own preference, and probably the more “modern”. Assuming, in the featured auction, that the Double did indeed show both majors, what would you have rebid with the South hand? We like 2♥ here, we are only taking one more bid with this hand, and it might as well bid our better major.
Against 3♦, North leads the A♠, and now the contract is ice-cold because Declarer can set up a Spade winner to pitch one of his losers away. North shifts to a Club, say, won by South’s Jack, and now South cannot profitably attack Hearts. The winning defense is to attack Hearts or Clubs on the opening lead, hardly obvious holding AK♠.
East’s 1♠ showed a 5-card suit (with 4 he would make a Negative Double), so West was able to make a jump raise with only 3-card support. Nice 4♠ bid by East! Only 6 HCPs, but an extra trump, well-placed Hearts honors, and a void (albeit in Partner’s suit).
The percentage play in Spades is to finesse twice, which give Declarer a 76% chance of holding the losers to one … playing the A♠ on the first round yields only 66%. But there are other considerations here, namely all those Diamond losers to take care of, and Declarer makes his contract by ruffing two of them on the board. South leads a Heart, and Declarer wins this and loses a Diamond at Trick Two, wins the Heart return, ruffs a Diamond, cashes A♠, then A♣ (pitching a Diamond), ruffs a Club, ruffs a Diamond, etc, making his contract via 4 Spades, 3 Hearts, 2 Diamond ruffs and a Club.
West’s 2NT shows about 17-18 HCP’s and East has just about enough to go to 3NT. If North attacks with a Heart lead, then defense gets its 4 Heart tricks and that’s the end of the matter. But, if South is passive, and leads a Club, Declarer has 10 cashing tricks.
Quite a long-winded auction, what does it all mean? - 2♣: Yes, just about worth a 2♣ opening, we think, but only because the long suit is a major … juggle the suits around and make that 6-card suit a minor, and we would not open 2♣ - 2♦: We question the wisdom of this bid, because East is likely to be on lead, and because the bid has no preemptive value. - Pass of 2♦: By partnership agreement this showed a hand with values (at least a King or two Queens), and it also denied the ability to make a positive suit response. - 4♦: A cue-bid - 4♥: Another cue-bid - 4NT: Roman Key Card in Clubs - 5♣: 1 or 4 Key Cards (playing 1430 responses) - 5♦: Queen Ask (North is trying for 7) - 6♣: No trump Queen
System Note: If your partnership plays Redwood, you would be able to use 4♦ (after 4♣) as Roman Key Card. We like Redwood but it would be an utter nuisance on this particular deal. North would now be unable to cue-bid Diamonds, meaning that South would not get the chance to cue-bid Hearts. Most inconvenient! In the circumstances, a Redwooding North might just close her eyes and bid 6♣.
2♥ was Michaels, and the question is “Do you play Splinter bids in competition?” We certainly do, but many don’t, are you and your Partner on the same wave-length? Anyway, suppose that the 4♦ bid is indeed a Splinter … now, how do you and your Partner play the Double of a Splinter? There’s not much point in using the Double as a lead-director for RHO’s short suit, so some partnerships use the Double to ask for the lead of the suit below the Splinter suit. Please see the article on this treatment in the System Library.
West’s non-vulnerable 2♥ bid may look a bit feeble given the 7-card suit, but the suit is completely empty, we think that 2♥ is just fine. North’s Double showed, by partnership agreement, a bad hand (defined as less than a King, or less than two Queens). South must have been sorely tempted to pass the Double, but guessed well to bid 3NT. 2♥ doubled would escape for 300, but South does better by scoring 10 tricks in 3NT.
South has only 11 HCPs, yet she has a 5-loser hand and is good enough to invite to game opposite a simple raise. However, East’s preemptive 4♦ puts paid to any invitational sequence, so South takes a stab at game, and is rewarded with +620 when the A♣ is onside.
Upon further review, the referees have concluded that, at this unfavorable vulnerability, 4♠ is a little bit “out there”. Yes, 4♠ happens to work on this particular hand, but we wonder if it is the right call. Any thoughts?
Here’s an explanation of the N-S auction: - 2♣: Played by this pair as game-forcing - 2♦: Showing a 5th Diamond, not necessarily denying a 4-card major - 2♥: Natural - 2♠: Although this is the 4th suit, it is natural … however, had it been a 4th suit bid (in a 2/1 auction) at the three-level, it would not necessarily be natural.
Against 4♠, if the defense fails to lead a trump on the go, and then fails to shift to a trump when they get in with a Club, Declarer can cross-ruff her merry way to 11 tricks, scoring two Hearts (which should be cashed before the cross-ruffing fun commences), the A♦, and all 8 of her trumps. If the defense stops this by leading or shifting to a trump, Declarer has another resource available … she can lose 2 Clubs (by not ruffing the second round), eventually scoring 4 trumps, two Hearts, the A♦ and a Diamond ruff, and 3 Clubs.
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