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Hand Analyses 18th October, 2006
This is quite a hand with which to start this week’s Wednesday Game! We’ll provide a blow-by-blow account of this auction in the Bidding Quiz, but in the meantime, we’ll just say the following: - East’s 1NT opening is as good as it can be, some might say that it is too good … we like 1NT here, but if there was a tad more stuffing in the Club suit our plan would be to open 1♣ and rebid 2NT (ostensibly showing 18-19) - 4♦ was a Splinter - 4NT was Roman Key Card, and 5♣ showed 0 or 3 (1430 responses) - 5NT was the King Ask, asking for a specific King, and 6♣ was the K♣
With both black suits breaking, N-S have all 13 tricks in Clubs or Spades or No Trump. The chances of bringing in both suits are not much better than 50%, and the extra chances offered by the Diamond finesse take the slam up to somewhere in the sixties. However, we don’t think that bidding those marginal grand slams is a winning strategy at duplicate, especially when, as here, we can win a bunch of matchpoints just by playing it in 6NT instead of 6♠.
After Partner has overcalled 1NT, the common treatment is to play “systems on”, so 2♣ here was Stayman. No major fit was found, and N-S subsided in 2NT, which was plenty high enough given the combined values.
It takes remarkable good fortune to make 3NT: - the Club suit must be blocked - the K♥ must be doubleton - the A♦ must be on-side (and not with the long Club)
Everything works, though, and it’s 9 tricks for Declarer. No need to feel overly proud of yourselves if you bid this game.
West judged well to push on to 4♣, which is an easy 10 tricks, but, in our opinion their opponents gave them an easy ride. Both North and South might have traded on the favorable vulnerability and mixed things up a bit. - North, in 3rd seat, opposite a passed hand, White vs Red, might have tried 2♦ instead of that uninspired light 1♦ opening. True, a Weak Two would be a bit heavy in the HCP department (at least it is if her range is 5-10), and it’s a bit light in the Diamond department, but the odds are that this is the opponents’ hand, so we would be sorely tempted to be more adventurous than a mere 1♦. - South, opposite that pusillanimous 1♦ bid, might well have bid 3♦ over East’s Double … after all, she was prepared to bid 3♦ later, so why not go there directly? 3♦ won’t always work out well, of course, but you could say the same about most bids.
Anyway, a more aggressive strategy by N-S would have made life tougher for E-W. The actual auction held no terrors for them whatsoever.
It’s usually not much fun leading into a 2NT opening bidder, the possibilities of blowing a trick are all too apparent. We certainly wouldn’t blame East for leading s Spade here against 3NT, but it will prove costly, presenting Declarer with a 10th trick. The Spade lead also presents Declarer with a dilemma: - Should she play on Diamonds and make sure of 11 tricks? - Or should she play on Hearts, trying for 12 tricks, but with the risk of making just 10?
We’d just take our 11 tricks by playing on Diamonds. We’ll be ahead of the game whenever the Q♥ is off-side, and even if the Q♥ is on-side we’ll still need the Hearts to break if we are to score that 12th trick. It pains us to observe that 12 tricks are indeed available thanks to the friendly Hearts.
Assuming that E-W are playing a 20-21 2NT opening, we would say that West’s 21-count is just too good for that bid, those Diamond fillers make the difference. But, either way, East is not going to contribute anything useful to the proceedings, and 2NT is the likely final spot.
As on the previous hand, the opening leader has the dubious pleasure of leading into a very strong and balanced hand. The K♠ is the winner, on the lie of the cards it gives up nothing, and holds Declarer to a miserable total a just 5 tricks. All other leads are doubly bad … firstly, they blow a trick on the go … secondly, the other leads give Declarer a tempo, now he can get the Diamonds going before the defense establish both of its black suits. All of the non-Spade leads result in down just one trick.
We’ve been seeing (or at least contemplating) some pretty raunchy Weak Two bids lately, especially in 3rd seat, but this time West’s 2♦ is the real Tabasco. North can hardly not overcall 3♣, and South is too good to just pass, so she bids 3♦, angling for 3NT. The end result is 4♣ down one, and it’s hard to see how N-S can reasonably manage to go plus on this one.
N-S got too high here, though the auction was not unreasonable. South’s 3♦ was certainly minimum considering the doubleton Q♠ … North might have passed 3♦, but there was nothing much wrong with 3♠ either.
A Club lead is clearly called for on this auction, and that will spell a one trick defeat for the contract. Of course, Declarer will remember those two “intra-finesse” successes from the previous week, and will see another one here … if West holds QT or KT or Tx, Declarer can hold her trumps to one loser (and make her contract) by leading a low Heart towards her J8xxx, preparing to insert the 8 if West plays low. But, alas, West does not have the magic holding, and it’s down one.
System Note: It’s a sensible agreement for 3♦ in the above auction to deny a 4-card Spade suit. In that case, why would North bid his own 4-card Spade suit? Two reasons … firstly, it might allow Partner to bid 3NT … secondly, the Spades are so good that the 4-3 fit might play quite well (especially if the short hand can look after the second or third round of Clubs).
Let’s look again at the combined trump holding: North J8432 West East South A96 Remember that intra-finesse play from last week? We lead towards the North hand, planning to insert the Eight if West plays low. Then, if East wins the trick with the King or the Queen, we’ll later run the Jack, hoping to squash the doubleton Ten in the West hand. This line picks up the suit for one loser whenever West started with KT or QT or T7 or T5. That’s 4 chances, at 3.39% per clip, or a 13.56% total chance.
Is there an alternative way of playing the suit for just one loser? Yes, just lay down the Ace, and lead towards North. Assuming sufficient entries, this also has 4 chances … KQ in either hand, and King or Queen singleton with East. Does that make the probabilities of the two approaches equal? Not exactly. Each individual 4-1 combination is slightly less likely than each individual 3-2 combination … it’s actually 2.83% as against 3.39%. So, the prosaic laying down of the Ace scores a feeble 12.42% compared with that mighty 13.56% for the oh-so-more-exotic intra-finesse.
West decided to treat this as a strong balanced hand, and as it looked too good for the 20-21 range he upgraded it and opened 2♣, planning to rebid 2NT. This plan got derailed when East gave a positive response in Clubs, so West showed the Diamond suit after all as it was also the cheapest bid available. That 5NT was the Grand Slam Force asking Partner to bid 7♣ if he held two of the top 3 honors. More on this sequence in the Bidding Quiz.
Against 6♣, North will lead a major, let’s say a Spade for the sake of argument. Declarer needs to establish a long Diamond trick, and must use his entries carefully. Win the Spade lead on the board, K♣, A♣, ruff a Diamond, draw the last trump, cross on a Heart, ruff a Diamond, cross on a Heart. Diamonds must be 4-3, Declarer’s hand does not have enough entries to cope with 5-2. All’s well on the actual hand and 12 tricks are made.
6♣ is a pretty high percentage slam … for it to fail there must be a trump loser (47%) and a bad Diamond split (38%) … that comes out to an 82% chance of success. And, on an opening Heart lead, the odds are even better. Declarer wins the lead in his hand, ruffs a Diamond (mustn’t waste that entry!), then proceeds as before. But now, if Diamonds don’t break 4-3, he has an extra string to his bow … he can try the Spade finesse for his 12th trick. So a Heart opening lead improves the odds to 91%.
Against 3♥, East will perhaps lead the Q♠. Assuming that both majors are divided 3-2 Declarer can score 2 Spades, 2 Diamonds, 4 trumps and a ruff in one hand or the other, for a total of 9 tricks. But if Hearts are 4-1 there will be control problems. It’s not a good idea to test trumps with a couple of rounds, if they turn out to be 4-1, it will be too late to recover. Best play is to win the Spade and lose a Diamond at Trick Two. Declarer wins the trump return on the board, cashes two Diamonds (pitching Spades), and exits a Spade. Because West has all the entries and East has the remaining trumps, it is possible for Declarer to set up a cross-ruff situation for the last 6 tricks … the trump spots are not good enough to make all 6 remaining tricks, but even so 9 tricks will be made. There are numerous variations on the above, but the bottom line is that Declarer does best to postpone the drawing of trumps and to go after the Diamonds right away.
Walsh Note: Walsh players in the South seat will disdain that Diamond suit and respond 1♥, which will land N-S in the same contract but from the other side.
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