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Hand Analyses 11th October, 2006
East would have done well to push on to 4♣ in this auction, but that was far from obvious with those soft values.
In 3♠, Declarer is destined to lose 3 Hearts and a Club, and it all depends on how she plays the trump suit. She’ll start with the Ace, and the Queen will pop out on her left. Should she now play the King, hoping that West started with QJ doubleton? Or should she cross to the board and finesse against the Jack? The answer is that the finesse is very much the percentage play, it’s the so-called Principle of Restricted Choice in action. The logic is a tad obscure, but it goes something like this: - If West had started with the singleton Queen he would be forced to play it - If West had started with the QJ doubleton, he might reasonably have played the Queen or the Jack - The odds of West starting with Q or QJ are approximately the same - So, after we play the Ace and the Queen appears on our left, it would be a mistake to play for the drop, that is hoping for two things … firstly, that West was indeed dealt the QJ, and, secondly, that he would have chosen to play the Queen from that holding, rather than the Jack - If, instead, we take the finesse on the second round, we are playing for just one thing, namely that singleton Queen, which had to be played because the choice was restricted to that.
Yes, it’s an elusive argument, but also a fairly frequent situation, and one that is worth remembering. Anyway, the Principle of Restricted Choice tells us to take the finesse and this works two times out of three, as indeed it does here.
System Note: Once every month or so we put in a plug for Support Doubles, and it’s about that time again. Playing Support Doubles (and Redoubles), Opener can distinguish between 3-card and 4-card support, which is most important information in the part-score battle. In the above auction, North’s 2♠ would show four-card support and a Support Redouble would show three-card support. So, as the auction went, South would be sure of a 9-card fit, and could compete accordingly.
Here’s an awkward situation for E-W! West opens 2♣, and North makes a Red vs White 3♦ preempt. After East passes, we’d suppose that West would normally introduce his suit if he had a suit-oriented 2♣ bid. So West’s Double is probably balanced and a hand that did not want to try 3NT … yes, it could also be a 3-suiter. And it could be all sorts of hand strengths. Or, to put it another way, who knows what West has? If East guesses to pass that Double, his side will collect +200, which is not so bad considering that E-W have no game. But it’s not a very convincing auction, too much guesswork involved.
System Note: What are your agreements when the opponents interfere over Partner’s 2♣ opening bid? One commonly used method is to play the Double as showing a bad hand, let’s say less than a King. Pass would deny such a bad hand, of course. This works rather well on the actual hand, as East will double, and West would no doubt pass seeing no likelihood of game and the hope of a worthwhile penalty. No guesswork on that auction!
A routine game, and surely the flattest board of the day, with 420’s all around the room.
Some Norths might jump into the fray with 2♠ over 1NT, but that’s way too risky for our taste, given the lack of shape and the vulnerability. On the actual hand we are talking -800 for those intrepid 2♠ bidders.
After the Jacoby Transfer, West’s 3♥ was a “Super-Accept”, a gadget we’ve already covered extensively on the Wednesday Game. There are a number of flavors available, and in the featured auction this pair played that 3♥ showed an “average hand” along with the 4 Hearts. True, the hand is at the low end of the 15-17 range, but we’d call it at least “average”, given those lovely controls.
This looks like another hand where everybody makes the same number of tricks, and in this case the number is 11. Let’s say that they lead the J♦ … all we have to do is draw trumps and ruff a couple of Clubs on the board. Pretty simple, and, with trumps 2-2, this line works fine. But correct play is to win the Diamond opening lead, cash the second Diamond and the A♣, then lose a Club … now Declarer has the entries (and enough high trumps) to get those two Club ruffs early in the play, thereby catering for a 3-1 trump break.
SAYC Note: In SAYC, a Super-Accept of (in this case) 3♥ is only made with 4 Hearts and a maximum.
On the combined N-S cards, we’d like to get to 4♠, it’s no sure thing but decent enough. We can see that the N-S auction did not hit the 4♠ jackpot (if it really is a jackpot, see below), so perhaps it’s time to play “Apportion the Blame”, if we may be permitted to borrow that term from the Bridge World magazine. The question is “Which of our two combatants underbid this one?” We’d say that it is close to a tie: - North has a 6-loser hand, which is normally not enough to go to game unilaterally in this situation … but as 6-loser hands go, this one is right up there, and we do believe that we might just charge into game, emboldened by our mighty Aces. - South has responded on a mere 3-count … is she really supposed to do more? Maybe … there is that singleton and the 4th trump … we’d feel a tad guilty bidding just 3♠ here, but also not terrifically confident about bidding 4♠.
Anyway, top marks (and matchpoints!) to any N-S pairs that got to game. Well, maybe! They also have to make it. East will likely lead the ominous Q♥, which will look awfully like a singleton to Declarer. Now, there is not much point in losing a Diamond in order to create an entry to the board for the trump finesse, because West will win the Diamond trick, cash a Heart and lead a third round of the suit, thereby promoting a trump trick for the defense. Therefore, Declarer should cash the A♠ at Trick Two, expecting that she will have to rely on the Club finesse to make 10 tricks. But, to her pleasant surprise, the K♠ drops, ensuring 10 tricks even with the Club finesse losing.
West was in a bind after the preempt and chose to make a penalty Double of 3♠ for want of better. Given the unfavorable vulnerability, this was not a great success, as South was able to make 6 trump tricks for -500 and a good save against the vulnerable game.
We don’t really fault West for his bad board, it was primarily a problem with the E-W methods. It’s becoming popular nowadays for a Double in this situation to be Negative (take-out, in other words), and this hand is a good commercial for that treatment. The requirements for the Double are game values and (in this case) 4 Hearts. The 1NT bidder can always convert the Double to a penalty if his hand so indicates, but, here he will gladly bid 4♥, which is good for 12 tricks when Hearts break with the King on-side.
South’s Double and West’s Redouble were both strength-showing, and North had the choice of passing the Redouble (which would say “Let’s defend this contract!”), or going back to Hearts. Bidding 2♥ was the winning choice, as 1♠ redoubled just squeaks home. 2♥ is also something of a squeaker, and 8 tricks are possible with careful play. For example: K♠ opening lead Spade continued and ruffed by Declarer Cash A♦ Diamond to West’s Queen Low Diamond continuation, ruffed in Dummy, and over-ruffed with the King Club shift to the Queen and King Club to Declarer’s Ace Diamond ruffed on the board Heart to the Ace, etc.
Back to the bidding … perhaps we were influenced by seeing all 4 hands, because it’s easy to see how West might not want to sell out to 2♥. He might well balance with a Double, after which his side will either play it in 2♠ doubled (down one for -200) or 3♣ probably undoubled. The fate of 3♣ (played by East) hinges on the opening lead … the unlikely Diamond lead beats it two tricks … on other leads it looks as if Declarer will come to 9 tricks (even 10 if the defense is not careful).
It seemed reasonable for West to take the sacrifice in 5♣, he has so little defense. Careful play results in down one … the ruffing Spade finesse allows the Heart loser to disappear.
That’s a great save against 4♠, but only if that contract can actually be made. The contract depends on losing just one Spade and the percentage play is to finesse the J♠ on the first round, protecting against KQx with East, giving Declarer an 89% chance of losing just one Spade … the alternative of playing A♠ and out a Spade is only 78% likely to succeed.
But there’s a hidden danger. Say that West leads a Club, and shifts to a Diamond. Declarer needs an entry to the board if he is to take that Spade safety play, and the only chance is in Hearts. The danger is that the play might go: A♣, Diamond shift, Heart to Dummy’s King and Ace, Diamond continuation, Heart to the board, losing Spade finesse, followed by a Heart ruff. For this catastrophic turn of events to occur, West would probably have started with 1-3-2-7, and East’s hand would have to be something like: ♠ Kx, ♥ Ax, ♦ Jxxxx, ♣ xxxx. Not much of a 1NT bid, in our view, but we’ve all seen (and no doubt done!) worse. Taking the Spade safety play gains 11% of the time, but who can possibly estimate the risk of them getting a Heart ruff?
South showed admirable restraint when she bid just 3♦. That’s a bid that might almost be made with an Ace less, so there was definitely the chance of a missed game when she made that call. On the other hand, she did not have a suitable game try available, certainly not 2NT with that Ax of their suit.
As for East, he must have been cursing the vulnerability when 3♦ got passed around to him. He doesn’t have much in the way of HCP’s, but the hand has some plus factors offensively … singleton in their suit, trump fillers, Hearts well placed over Opener (but these are also good defensively, of course). We’d be tempted to bid 3♠ anyway, but only against opponents who are not trigger-happy with that Double card.
How does 3♦ do? Despite South’s heroic forbearance in the bidding, it’s a perilous contract. Please see Play Problem # 80 to see how North might pull her side’s chestnuts out of the fire.
How about 3♠? Eight tricks appears to be the maximum, the defense can get their 5 tricks either by drawing trumps and limiting Declarer’s ruffs, or by going after their own ruffs (in Clubs).
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