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Hand Analyses 27th September, 2006
After a Weak Two opening, what are your methods? - A new suit at the 2-level is constructive but non-forcing (meaning that the Weak Two bidder can pass with a rotten hand)? - Or, a new suit at the 2-level is forcing?
Clearly, with this monstrous hand, South would not want to bid 2♠ if that could be passed, and the featured auction reflects that. 4NT was Roman Key Card Blackwood, and 5♦ was 0 or 3.
6♠ is a fine contract, requiring nothing more than a 3-2 trump break (or the singleton Jack), something like a 73% chance. In practice it’s somewhat better, because, even if the opponents have a trump trick, they may not find the winning Club lead. Of course, the same applies when the trumps do break, and we’d bet that cashing that A♣ against 6♠ will be enough to score average on the board.
SAYC Note: Playing SAYC, after 2♥, a response of 2♠ is forcing for one round, and that will likely be South’s choice. The complete auction might be: North South 2♥ 2♠ 3♥ 4♦ 4♠ 4NT 5♣ 6♠ Pass 3♥ says “I have a minimum”, or, more precisely, the lower half of the 5-11 range (though it’s quite borderline) … 4♦ is natural and forcing. 4NT is straight Blackwood, of course.
On the lie of the cards, 3NT is an easy make for E-W, but there are many layouts where it won’t make (for example, switch the N-S hands). Looking just at the E-W cards we’d guess that 3NT is a slight favorite to make, and perhaps West’s 3♦ was something of an underbid … but not by very much, we rather like the featured auction, though we are not crazy about the result.
Walsh Note: Walsh players may well end up in the so-so (but successful) 3NT contract. Their auction might be: West East Pass 1♣ 1♠ 2♦ 3♦ 3♥ 3NT Pass East’s game-forcing 3♦ is debatable, he might well have made a weakness bid (such as 2♥ or 2NT, depending on the partnership methods).
Did any Souths open with a Weak 2♦? Even White versus Red we don’t think that this is a good idea, too many defects … 4-card major, side-suit void, weak suit … none of these are deal-breakers on their own, particularly at this vulnerability, but collectively they say “Pass”. West also had a Weak Two decision, but not a difficult one, it’s another clear Pass … just look at that abysmal suit and consider the vulnerability.
The final contract is likely to be 3♣ or 3♦. Here’s what might happen: - Against 3♣: Who knows what East might lead? We have no idea, it’s a pretty grim set of choices. A Spade lead is out, based on the bidding … the A♦ is not appealing, given the long Diamonds on East’s left … a Club lead is also dangerous, it may well blow a trick, or, as on the actual hand, save Declarer a guess, and may also lose a tempo for the defense. Suffice it to say, a Heart lead works best (though it looks awfully dangerous!), allowing the defense to get a couple of ruffs and 4 tricks. A black suit lead is likely to result in 10 tricks for Declarer. - Against 3♦: West has an obvious Heart lead, which ensures 3 Diamond tricks and a Club for the defense. Now, Declarer will need to guess the Clubs right to make 9 tricks.
Back to the Bidding: We confess that we would have opened the North hand 1NT! True, it’s a point shy, but it has the compensation of a 5-card suit and some useful fillers. This one looks better than many 15-counts to us, and there’s a lot to be said for getting that 1NT card out on the table against vulnerable opponents, they may find it hard to get into the auction. If North does open 1NT, South will probably Stayman, then after 2♠ try 2NT, which will be the final contract. A Heart is the likely opening lead, won by Declarer, whereupon the entry situation will force her into the winning Club guess … that will be 4 Clubs, 3 Hearts and a Spade, for 8 tricks, and a ninth may well materialize in the end-game.
Both sides might have bid more on this one … E-W can make 10 tricks in either minor, and N-S can make 10 tricks in Spades, with the aid of a Heart guess. Yes, it’s our old friend the double-fitter, where both sides have fits in two suits, and where extra tricks are invariably made. N-S have 9 trumps in Spades, E-W have 9 Diamonds, for a total of 18 trumps … and yet, both sides can makes 10 tricks for a total of 20 … as usual in this situation, the Law of Total Tricks underestimates by a trick or two.
Will North, as Declarer, guess the Heart suit correctly? Surely, yes, for two reasons … firstly, East has shown long Diamonds which leaves him less room for Hearts … and, if Hearts are 4-1, the only way they can be picked up is if the 4-card holding is with West.
South had a rebid problem … too good for 3♦, we would say … not suitable for 2NT with that Club holding. That leaves a jump shift, but to what? … to a worthless doubleton or a 3-card major. We like the actual choice of 2♠, but it’s not quite that simple, please see the Bidding Quiz.
East has an awkward hand from which to lead, he’ll probably choose a Club … Declarer wins, loses the Diamond finesse, and West continues Clubs. Declarer has 9 tricks at this point, and cannot afford to duck the second Club (the opponents might shift to Hearts, which on a slightly different layout would beat the contract). So, she’ll win the second Club, and take the Spade finesse for 10 tricks, taking the risk that the T♣ opening lead was from T9 doubleton.
In our opinion, West was wise not to make a preemptive jump raise to 3♦ at this vulnerability and with that characterless hand.
The defense to 4♥ which is most likely to make Declarer nervous is two rounds of Diamonds and a Club switch. As Declarer, how would you make 10 tricks? Please see Play Problem # 71.
Opposite a strong No Trump opener, would you force to game with the West hand, or would you merely invite? And, in either case, what are your partnership methods? Please see the Bidding Quiz for more on this.
The final contract will no doubt be 2NT or 3NT, played by East, with West having shown the majors along the way. South has to make a short suit lead, which minor will it be? - If South leads a Diamond that will be most unfortunate for the defense! North can win the Ace and shift to a Club, but provided Declarer withholds his King to the second round, the Club suit is blocked. Picture this defense: Diamond to the Ace, brilliant T♣ shift (ducked), two more Clubs won by South, safe Diamond exit … Declarer has lost 4 tricks, and has 8 cashers … the 9th trick can come from the successful Spade finesse, but it’s much more fun for Declarer to cash the top Hearts, then the Diamonds, and watch South squirm as she comes down to 3 cards … no need for a finesse, the Q♠ will pop up on the second round (or else the T♥ will be good). - If South leads a Club, he might well try the Jack, the best way to maintain communications and unblock the suit … East wins the King, loses to the A♦, and that’s a fast down one.
Let’s go back to the opening Diamond lead. After North wins the A♦, she may shift to a prosaic low Club (instead of the dynamic Ten). Now, Declarer wins the 3rd round of Clubs for his 9th trick, cashes Hearts then Diamonds, and South is squeezed for a risk-free overtrick.
Those Souths who play conventions such as DONT or Meckwell do not have a penalty Double of 1NT available and would be obliged to bid Hearts here. However, today’s South did make a penalty Double, no doubt hoping that E-W would not be able to score 5 Club tricks and a Heart for down one, when N-S can make some number of Hearts. West’s Redouble showed a decent hand, and North quite reasonably bailed out to Clubs. West’s final Double was no sure thing.
There won’t be much to the play of 3♥, it’s down one regardless. Playing in Spades, E-W can make 8 tricks … North leads a Heart won by the Jack, A♥, Heart ruffed with Declarer’s Ten, Spade to the King and Ace, A♦, and now the 4th round of Hearts promotes the fifth trick for the defense. A safer route to 5 defensive tricks, of course, would be a Club shift at trick two (setting up a ruff), but that would be far less elegant!
North’s 3♠ seems pretty normal to us, notwithstanding the dubious K♥, but it gets N-S too high. Well, too high in theory, but maybe not in practice. Declarer can count 8 top tricks, and unless the defense starts leading trumps right away, the 9th will come through a Club ruff on the board. Let’s say that East leads a Diamond … Dummy’s Ace wins, a Club is ducked (it’s necessary to lose a Club first), Spade return is won by Declarer, A♣, ruff a Club, and that will be 9 tricks.
Even though E-W have a combined 21 HCP’s, 1NT is a pitiful affair. South will lead a major … a Heart lead will beat the contract by no fewer than 3 tricks, and a Spade lead blows a trick on the go but still gets it down 2. Scoring -200 or -300 on a part-score is never much fun, but many E-W pairs will be spared this indignity. Good old North may come to the rescue, perhaps with a 2♣ DONT bid (showing Clubs and another suit). They’ll end up in a making Heart part-score, but their +140 will not score many matchpoints, we suspect.
When it came time to make her rebid, South had one of the most difficult bidding problems of the entire set. You could no doubt make a good argument for 2♣, 3♥ and 3♠, but we like her actual choice of 2♠. For more on this, please see the Bidding Quiz.
How about North’s rebid? When 2♠ gets back to her, she could just count up to 7 HCP’s and say “Pass”. But her distribution is too exciting for that and she is good value for her 3♠ bid. Needless to say, after her previous (but calculated) underbid, South breathes a huge sigh of relief, and accepts the invitation with alacrity. However, she should accept by bidding 4♥, showing 3-6 in the majors, and offering Partner a choice of games.
But, with or without the aforementioned alacrity, the final contract is only so-so, and making 10 tricks is no sure thing. The good news is that you have only two losers, the bad news is that you have only 8 winners, namely 6 Spades and two red Aces. Clearly there is work to be done here. A Diamond ruff on the board will be a 9th trick, but it would be dangerous to take a second ruff, that will promote a trump trick for the defense if trumps are 3-1 (as on the actual hand). Perhaps the best line is to win the opening Diamond lead with the Ace, and lead a Club right away, hoping for a 10th trick in that suit. This is the winning line, but it also has a fallback position … if the finesse of the T♣ loses to the Jack, then Declarer can always resort to taking two ruffs on the board and praying for 2-2 trumps.
After N-S cruise into 3NT, West leads a Spade, won on the board with the Ten … now Declarer goes after Diamonds, and leads towards his Queen. Great news when it wins, less than great when West shows out! With the Diamond suit dead, Declarer’s best shot for 9 tricks is to lead twice towards the KQxx of Hearts … this works and it’s 9 tricks.
A limit raise, a couple of cue-bids, and the reasonable slam is reached. At worst it is on the Heart finesse, but South might give away the contract if she leads a Heart or a Club. A Club lead would be an especially poor choice, considering the bidding, surely the A♣ is on South’s right. There’s a school of thought that advocates aggressive leads against slams, and if South subscribes to that she might well lead a low Heart. Perhaps, with the K♣ well placed, South should go passive, hoping that the K♥ is also well placed. We like to think that we would have made the safe and winning lead of a Diamond or a Spade, but we cannot be sure!
After South’s 2NT (for the minors), West’s 3♦ was the so-called “Unusual vs Unusual”, in this case showing at least a limit raise in Spades. After a couple of cue-bids, the bidding subsided in 4♠, East no doubt wondering what he was supposed to do with those two Club losers, given the Club length on his left, and the overruffing danger on his right.
Actually, in the absence of enemy bidding, 6♠ looks like a reasonable contract, needing 3-2 trumps and 4-3 Clubs, which allows the 12th trick to come from a Club ruff on the board. But once South has butted in with 2NT, there is no chance of that Club ruff. Nor can the contract rely on 3-2 trumps and 3-3 Hearts, another impossibility. So, not a triumph for the Unusual 2NT, it may have talked E-W out of their doomed slam.
Against 4♠, the vile trump break holds Declarer to 10 tricks. Say that South leads a Club … Declarer cashes the K♠ and gets the bad news … now he should lose a Diamond, win the return, and take a Club ruff on the board … North can overruff, but only at the expense of a natural trump trick. Declarer ends up losing the A♦ and two trumps.
East may well wonder who’s got the rest of the Spades. North did not raise, so it seems likely that Partner has quite a few. With that thought in mind, he might try a Double, praying that Partner can pass … but this is quite a gamble as, needless to say, a Heart bid from Partner will not be welcome.
The gambling Double will be a huge success, worth 800. If, instead of the Double, West bids 3♦, now it is E-W who are in trouble, destined to go minus wherever they play.
System Note: After the other side has opened 2♠, how do you play a 4NT bid? And 4♠? It’s common to play 4NT as for the minors, and 4♠ as the same thing but showing a better hand. We’d say that the actual East hand is perhaps the Q♦ away from a 4NT bid, and maybe the Q♦ and A♥ away from a 4♠ bid. For more on how to defend against their Weak Two openings when holding a two-suited hand, please see the Leaping Michaels link.
As on Board 1, we have a Weak Two bid which finds Partner with a really big hand. And, as before, the featured East was obliged to jump to 3♠ to create a force, presumably playing that 2♦ 2♠ is constructive but non-forcing.
4♠ will be the final contract, and the play is most interesting, please see Play Problem # 72.
An interesting auction! The first bid of note is West’s 2♦ cue-bid … any difference between that and a 2♠ cue-bid? A commonly used treatment is for the cheap cue-bid to show a 3-card limit raise, and the higher cue-bid to show a 4-card limit raise, and that was West’s intention here. True, the hand is a tad light in terms of HCP’s, but the singleton in their suit counts for a lot.
If N-S are playing Support Doubles, then North’s 2♠ will guarantee 4-card support (with only 3-card support she would double 2♦). In this auction, note how both sides used a gadget to convey the number of trumps held … in these competitive battles that knowledge is essential to the decision-making process.
Over 4♥ it seems obvious for South to bid 4♠, based on the double-fit, and, as so often happens with double-fitters, there are more total tricks than total trumps. Only 18 total trumps, but a total of 20 total tricks (10 by each side).
When 4♠ gets back to East, he can pass, double, or bid 5♥. Double would be a shot in the dark (but a tempting one, anyway), and we suspect that we would just pass. However, the winning bid is 5♥, a profitable sacrifice against the opponents’ game. Unfortunately, for East, he is not aware that the hands are double-fitting … all he knows is that the points are fairly evenly divided, and that there are probably 18 total trumps (but could be 19) … hardly enough inducement to bid on to the 5-level.
SAYC Note: Support Doubles are not a part of SAYC, so North’s 2♠ bid could well be on 3-card support. This would make 4♠ by South a little less attractive, of course.
South’s 2♣ was a lead-director against possible Diamond or Spade contracts by West. Nonetheless, North will probably lead the A♥, and will get a second chance at Clubs when she gets in with the K♦. 10 tricks for Declarer.
Even though South is at favorable vulnerability, it would be a bit much to open a Weak Two with such a lousy suit and with two outside defensive tricks. But, either way, 4♠ will be the final contract and 10 tricks will surely result.
After the opponents make a take-out Double, many players use Jordan 2NT to show a limit raise, but this is probably best reserved for hands with 4-card support, so East starts instead with a value-showing Redouble. West’s 2♠ simply showed a 6th Spade with no extras, East invited, and West declined.
In 4♠, Declarer has 3 side-suit losers, and whether he makes 9 or 10 tricks will depend entirely on how he guesses the trump suit. It seems that the choices are whether to play for the drop, or whether to play the Doubler for shortness. We have some other clues: - South does not have 4 Hearts - South has longer Clubs than Diamonds (otherwise she would surely let North pick the suit)
With that in mind, West might decide to go on a fishing expedition. The play might go like this: North leads the A♣ Shift to the Q♦, won by the Ace Heart to the King and Ace J♦ to the King Q♥, followed by a Heart ruff Club to the King Club ruffed on the board Diamond ruff
We have studiously avoided drawing trumps, as we probe the enemy distribution, and the bidding has made it fairly safe that we would not get overruffed in the process. But has the fishing trip actually achieved anything? Nothing completely conclusive, that’s for sure. We now know that North started with 2-5-3-3 or 1-5-4-3. We’d assert that the latter is more likely given the bidding, and we would play South for Qxx in the trump suit. Not entirely convinced? Well, we are not surprised, it’s not exactly a rock-solid conclusion!
With 3-3 in the minors (and no 5-card major) it’s customary to open 1♣, but not here! In the absence of a bid from Partner, North’s 1NT rebid showed 18-19, but even that was not enough to get a reaction, and East declares 2♠. The defense has 4 obvious tricks, and +140 for E-W should be a common score.
It’s possible that South might dredge up a balancing 3♦, but this will not be a success! 3♦ will probably escape being doubled, but, even so, it will be down 2 for -200.
West’s 2♣ was New Minor Forcing, in search of the 5-3 Spade fit, and 4♠ was predictably the final contract. What would be your opening lead from the North hand? - Not a Spade, obviously - Leading the A♣ is not appealing (and underleading it is even less so) - Leading through Dummy’s first bid suit is often a good ploy, but this works better then we are short in the suit, not when we have length - That just leaves a low Heart, not a particularly attractive lead, just less ugly-looking than the alternatives!
On a Heart lead, Declarer has some major suit guessing to do. It would certainly make sense to finesse against North in the trump suit, partly because she didn’t lead one, but more to protect Dummy’s K♣. This works out rather well, and now Declarer can pitch his Clubs on the Diamonds, and then needs to guess the Heart situation for 12 tricks. When Declarer calls for that Heart from Dummy, South must be ready with an in-tempo Deuce. If she’s counting the hand along the way, it will be 100% obvious that the Heart trick is not going anywhere, and that playing low cannot cost, and may give Declarer a guess.
Suppose that, on opening lead, North makes the unrecommended choice of the A♣. Does that hold Declarer to 11 tricks? Actually, no! Provided that Declarer can guess the trump suit, he’ll be able to rattle off all of his Spade and Diamond winners, and catch poor South in a Heart-Club squeeze for the 12th trick. There are two lines, however, and one of them is somewhat farfetched: - Un-Farfetched Line: North cashes the A♣, and continues Clubs. Now, Declarer guesses the Spades correctly, and proceeds with the rattling off of winners. Which suit should be rattled off first? The communications are such that the squeeze card must come from Dummy, so the Spades are cashed first, then the Diamonds, and if either defender has the KQ♥ and the Q♣, the squeeze will come to fruition. - Farfetched Line: North cashes the A♣ and shifts to a Heart. Now, the entry situation has changed, and the squeeze card must come from Declarer … this means cashing the Diamonds first, while there is still an enemy trump remaining … somewhat dangerous, North might ruff, and they cash a Heart and 11 cold tricks have become 10. But, on the actual hand, this improbable line of play actually works, the long Diamonds are with the long trumps, and eventually the squeeze will materialize.
4♠ seems like the universal contract and on the opening lead of a Diamond this contract is going down, barring a bizarre first-round trump finesse. However, if East finds a Club lead (or a Heart), Declarer is in with a chance. She’ll win the opening lead, and play the A♠ … not the K♠, she needs that for later as an entry to the Hearts … when West shows out, she cashes the AK♥, takes the Spade finesse, cashes the K♠, and plays Hearts, getting two minor suit losers away before East can ruff in. The end-result is 10 tricks, the only losers being a trump and two in the minors.
It seems natural enough for South to lead a Diamond to the Ace. South then gets her ruff, and can play on Declarer’s nerves by shifting to a Spade. Declarer finesses the Queen successfully, and must now guess the trump suit. In the absence of that ruff, Declarer would have finessed against North’s hoped-for Queen. But the ruff has changed the odds, and it seems like a better play to play South for the Heart length … we confess that we would go wrong here, playing South to have started with Qxx. Of course, there is the argument that South might not have pursued the ruff with that trump holding, as he is likely to score a trump trick without the ruff, but we’d play for the drop anyway.
Against 4♠, the defense is entitled to a Heart and a Diamond, and it will all come down to the play of the Club suit. Normal play is to finesse the T♣ at some point, and when that fails the contract is down one. True, thanks to West’s doubleton 9, the contract can be made by leading the T♣ from Dummy, but this line is a real long-shot.
That 4♥ bid was a Texas Transfer, and the final 4♠ contract illustrates the benefit of having the strong hand as Declarer. With East playing the hand, South has no lead that will prevent 12 tricks … a Diamond or a Club will present Declarer with 12th tricks (6 trumps, two Hearts, two Diamonds, a Club, plus the opening lead gift trick) … a Heart or trump lead will allow Declarer the timing to set up a long Heart as the 12th trick.
Now see what happens if West is Declarer in 4♠. North can hold Declarer to 11 tricks in one of two ways. Either lead a Diamond, which knocks out an entry, and makes it impossible to set up the Hearts … or lead a Club, which sets up a Club trick before the A♥ has been knocked out.
System Note: Some partnerships make a distinction between these two auctions: West East West East 1NT 1NT 4♥ 4♠ 2♥ 2♠ 4♠ The Texas auction is purely to play, but the Jacoby auction is considered a mild slam try. The West hand is quite close to that mild slam try, but surely it would be best to make the try via a Diamond splinter, if one is available. Some pairs play 4♦ here as such a splinter, others have more obscure methods, please see the Link.
After the 1NT opening, North decides that her hand is of invitational strength, and, because the partnership uses 2NT for some other purpose (perhaps a transfer to Diamonds), she is obliged to invite via Stayman, even though she has no major suit interest.
Any thoughts about whether South should accept the invitation? We don’t think so! Yes, it’s 16 HCP’s, and, yes, we have a 5-card suit, but after that it’s all downhill … no Tens, no Nines even, too many Queens, and only one Ace … definitely a non-accept! And with good reason, even 2NT will be tough sledding, looks to us like down one.
An uneventful auction, and a hand which yields an easy 9 tricks for Declarer.
Pity North as she has to find a bid over 2♠ doubled! 3♣ seems like the obvious choice, though, if the opponent’s Double is particularly vicious she can always try 3♦!
3♣ turns out to be down two on most lines of play and defense, and that will be an unseemly -200 on the scorecard.
System Note: Do you play Lebensohl after their overcalls of 1NT? If so, have you extended its usage to the situation here, where Partner has doubled their Weak Two? We highly recommend that you do, please check the link.
What would be your plan with the South hand? We offer you three choices: - Open 2♣, planning to rebid 3♦: Absolutely our least favorite, opening 2♣ and then rebidding 3♦ is just a horribly inefficient start to the auction, something to be avoided at almost any cost. - Open 1♦ and rebid 2♠: This is certainly an improvement over the previous plan … we take the (very slight) risk of getting passed out in order to initiate a more informative auction. - Open 2♣ and rebid 2NT: This would be our choice. True the hand is not picture perfect with that singleton A♣, but it’s close enough! This sequence shows 22-23 or 22-24, according to most methods.
After the 2NT rebid, N-S got into a rather convoluted transfer sequence which tested out their Roman Key Card agreements: - 3NT: This was a “super-accept”, showing 4-card support. - 4NT: Roman Key Card in Spades. - 5♦: 0 or 3 - 5♥: The Queen Ask (many players use the “cheapest non-signoff”, after a 0/3 or 1/4 response, for this purpose). - 6♦: The Q♠ and the K♦. - 7NT: Going for the gusto!
To be honest, it’s not a very convincing auction. North knows that her side is missing 3-4 or 3-5 points, and it’s possible to construct hands where 7NT (or 7♠) has no play. For example, South might have: ♠ AQJ4, ♥ Q632, ♦ AK, ♣ AQJ. Opposite that monumentally unsuitable hand, it’s not even certain that 12 tricks can be made!
Would it have been better if South had launched into Roman Key Card? Probably not, consider this: North South 2♣ 2♦ 2NT 3♥ 3NT 4♥ 4NT 5♥ 5NT 6♣ ?? Everything has gone quite swimmingly and yet South still cannot be sure that Partner does not have the dreaded xxx holding in Diamonds. There are obscure agreements available which provide for further asking bids, but we won’t pursue them here, they only come up about twice a year. But Kantar’s “Roman Key Card Blackwood” book is available to those who need to pursue this further.
That 1♦ opening is pretty marginal, to say the least. True, it passes the Rule of Twenty, but all those Queens are a minus, especially the doubleton Heart Queen. It turns out to be the winning call, though, propelling N-S to their 3NT game.
Against 3NT, East will presumably lead a Club, to the King and Declarer’s Ace. Now, North must grab the bull by the horns and take an immediate Spade finesse … if it works she’ll score 9 or 10 tricks (it turns out to be 10 when the Ten comes down). If the Spade finesse doesn’t work, they’ll continue Clubs, and Declarer can still make her contract if she guesses to block the Clubs (by playing low on the second round).
However, we’d bet that most of the field will not get to game on these cards, and making part-scores will abound in No Trump and Diamonds, maybe even Spades.
East could hardly not give Partner a limit raise, even though, as 12-counts with 4-card support go, this one is quite execrable. And we certainly wouldn’t fault West for taking it in with an extra trump, and good controls.
The final contract is not a thing of beauty, in fact it’s quite terrible! It requires both missing Heart honors to be on-side, plus some more luck in Clubs. There is no such good fortune, and the final Spade contract of the set (there were no fewer than 18!) goes down one.
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