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Hand Analyses 27th September, 2006
After a Weak Two opening, what are your methods? - A new suit at the 2-level is constructive but non-forcing (meaning that the Weak Two bidder can pass with a rotten hand)? - Or, a new suit at the 2-level is forcing?
Clearly, with this monstrous hand, South would not want to bid 2♠ if that could be passed, and the featured auction reflects that. 4NT was Roman Key Card Blackwood, and 5♦ was 0 or 3.
6♠ is a fine contract, requiring nothing more than a 3-2 trump break (or the singleton Jack), something like a 73% chance. In practice it’s somewhat better, because, even if the opponents have a trump trick, they may not find the winning Club lead. Of course, the same applies when the trumps do break, and we’d bet that cashing that A♣ against 6♠ will be enough to score average on the board.
SAYC Note: Playing SAYC, after 2♥, a response of 2♠ is forcing for one round, and that will likely be South’s choice. The complete auction might be: North South 2♥ 2♠ 3♥ 4♦ 4♠ 4NT 5♣ 6♠ Pass 3♥ says “I have a minimum”, or, more precisely, the lower half of the 5-11 range (though it’s quite borderline) … 4♦ is natural and forcing. 4NT is straight Blackwood, of course.
On the lie of the cards, 3NT is an easy make for E-W, but there are many layouts where it won’t make (for example, switch the N-S hands). Looking just at the E-W cards we’d guess that 3NT is a slight favorite to make, and perhaps West’s 3♦ was something of an underbid … but not by very much, we rather like the featured auction, though we are not crazy about the result.
Walsh Note: Walsh players may well end up in the so-so (but successful) 3NT contract. Their auction might be: West East Pass 1♣ 1♠ 2♦ 3♦ 3♥ 3NT Pass East’s game-forcing 3♦ is debatable, he might well have made a weakness bid (such as 2♥ or 2NT, depending on the partnership methods).
Did any Souths open with a Weak 2♦? Even White versus Red we don’t think that this is a good idea, too many defects … 4-card major, side-suit void, weak suit … none of these are deal-breakers on their own, particularly at this vulnerability, but collectively they say “Pass”. West also had a Weak Two decision, but not a difficult one, it’s another clear Pass … just look at that abysmal suit and consider the vulnerability.
The final contract is likely to be 3♣ or 3♦. Here’s what might happen: - Against 3♣: Who knows what East might lead? We have no idea, it’s a pretty grim set of choices. A Spade lead is out, based on the bidding … the A♦ is not appealing, given the long Diamonds on East’s left … a Club lead is also dangerous, it may well blow a trick, or, as on the actual hand, save Declarer a guess, and may also lose a tempo for the defense. Suffice it to say, a Heart lead works best (though it looks awfully dangerous!), allowing the defense to get a couple of ruffs and 4 tricks. A black suit lead is likely to result in 10 tricks for Declarer. - Against 3♦: West has an obvious Heart lead, which ensures 3 Diamond tricks and a Club for the defense. Now, Declarer will need to guess the Clubs right to make 9 tricks.
Back to the Bidding: We confess that we would have opened the North hand 1NT! True, it’s a point shy, but it has the compensation of a 5-card suit and some useful fillers. This one looks better than many 15-counts to us, and there’s a lot to be said for getting that 1NT card out on the table against vulnerable opponents, they may find it hard to get into the auction. If North does open 1NT, South will probably Stayman, then after 2♠ try 2NT, which will be the final contract. A Heart is the likely opening lead, won by Declarer, whereupon the entry situation will force her into the winning Club guess … that will be 4 Clubs, 3 Hearts and a Spade, for 8 tricks, and a ninth may well materialize in the end-game.
Both sides might have bid more on this one … E-W can make 10 tricks in either minor, and N-S can make 10 tricks in Spades, with the aid of a Heart guess. Yes, it’s our old friend the double-fitter, where both sides have fits in two suits, and where extra tricks are invariably made. N-S have 9 trumps in Spades, E-W have 9 Diamonds, for a total of 18 trumps … and yet, both sides can makes 10 tricks for a total of 20 … as usual in this situation, the Law of Total Tricks underestimates by a trick or two.
Will North, as Declarer, guess the Heart suit correctly? Surely, yes, for two reasons … firstly, East has shown long Diamonds which leaves him less room for Hearts … and, if Hearts are 4-1, the only way they can be picked up is if the 4-card holding is with West.
South had a rebid problem … too good for 3♦, we would say … not suitable for 2NT with that Club holding. That leaves a jump shift, but to what? … to a worthless doubleton or a 3-card major. We like the actual choice of 2♠, but it’s not quite that simple, please see the Bidding Quiz.
East has an awkward hand from which to lead, he’ll probably choose a Club … Declarer wins, loses the Diamond finesse, and West continues Clubs. Declarer has 9 tricks at this point, and cannot afford to duck the second Club (the opponents might shift to Hearts, which on a slightly different layout would beat the contract). So, she’ll win the second Club, and take the Spade finesse for 10 tricks, taking the risk that the T♣ opening lead was from T9 doubleton.
In our opinion, West was wise not to make a preemptive jump raise to 3♦ at this vulnerability and with that characterless hand.
The defense to 4♥ which is most likely to make Declarer nervous is two rounds of Diamonds and a Club switch. As Declarer, how would you make 10 tricks? Please see Play Problem # 71.
Opposite a strong No Trump opener, would you force to game with the West hand, or would you merely invite? And, in either case, what are your partnership methods? Please see the Bidding Quiz for more on this.
The final contract will no doubt be 2NT or 3NT, played by East, with West having shown the majors along the way. South has to make a short suit lead, which minor will it be? - If South leads a Diamond that will be most unfortunate for the defense! North can win the Ace and shift to a Club, but provided Declarer withholds his King to the second round, the Club suit is blocked. Picture this defense: Diamond to the Ace, brilliant T♣ shift (ducked), two more Clubs won by South, safe Diamond exit … Declarer has lost 4 tricks, and has 8 cashers … the 9th trick can come from the successful Spade finesse, but it’s much more fun for Declarer to cash the top Hearts, then the Diamonds, and watch South squirm as she comes down to 3 cards … no need for a finesse, the Q♠ will pop up on the second round (or else the T♥ will be good). - If South leads a Club, he might well try the Jack, the best way to maintain communications and unblock the suit … East wins the King, loses to the A♦, and that’s a fast down one.
Let’s go back to the opening Diamond lead. After North wins the A♦, she may shift to a prosaic low Club (instead of the dynamic Ten). Now, Declarer wins the 3rd round of Clubs for his 9th trick, cashes Hearts then Diamonds, and South is squeezed for a risk-free overtrick.
Those Souths who play conventions such as DONT or Meckwell do not have a penalty Double of 1NT available and would be obliged to bid Hearts here. However, today’s South did make a penalty Double, no doubt hoping that E-W would not be able to score 5 Club tricks and a Heart for down one, when N-S can make some number of Hearts. West’s Redouble showed a decent hand, and North quite reasonably bailed out to Clubs. West’s final Double was no sure thing.
There won’t be much to the play of 3♥, it’s down one regardless. Playing in Spades, E-W can make 8 tricks … North leads a Heart won by the Jack, A♥, Heart ruffed with Declarer’s Ten, Spade to the King and Ace, A♦, and now the 4th round of Hearts promotes the fifth trick for the defense. A safer route to 5 defensive tricks, of course, would be a Club shift at trick two (setting up a ruff), but that would be far less elegant!
North’s 3♠ seems pretty normal to us, notwithstanding the dubious K♥, but it gets N-S too high. Well, too high in theory, but maybe not in practice. Declarer can count 8 top tricks, and unless the defense starts leading trumps right away, the 9th will come through a Club ruff on the board. Let’s say that East leads a Diamond … Dummy’s Ace wins, a Club is ducked (it’s necessary to lose a Club first), Spade return is won by Declarer, A♣, ruff a Club, and that will be 9 tricks.
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