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Hand Analyses 20th September, 2006
A straightforward auction, but what an ugly hand East has when it comes to choose an opening lead! We don’t have any advice to offer, it really looks like a guess. We’d probably lead a trump or a Spade, but not with any enthusiasm. The friendly lie of the cards makes 12 tricks possible … Declarer will score 7 Hearts, 2 Diamonds, one Spade (via a ruffing finesse), one Club, and a Club ruff. The truly disastrous opening lead turns out to be a Club, that will be 13 tricks for Declarer! Perhaps that Club lead is a tad too aggressive, but it’s always easier to judge these things when you can see all four hands.
Another uncontroversial auction. South leads a 4th best Heart, won by North. Five Hearts are cashed … North does well to hang on to all of her Diamonds, so she pitches two Clubs and a Spade … from necessity, Declarer pitches two Clubs … if South is following the proceedings carefully she’ll know that A♣ and out a Club is the way to go. The bottom line? Declarer wins the second Club, tries the Diamonds, and when they don’t break she throws in North with the 4th round of Diamonds. North is obliged to lead the Spades, and that will be Declarer’s 5th trick.
Down two might not seem like such a great triumph, but on this board it is! A score of -100 when they can make 9 or 10 tricks in Spades cannot be bad.
How do you like the North hand for slam purposes? We like it a lot, we like the high card structure, and those nice Tens. But, it’s not worth charging into some kind of Blackwood auction, that won’t tell us anything, no doubt we have enough controls to make slam. No, the way to go on this hand is to invite Partner’s opinion. We’re all familiar with the 1NT 4NT auction which does precisely that, namely “Do you like your hand? If so, bid six” But, do you and your Partner have a method for inviting that opinion after a Stayman auction? If not, please see the Bidding Quiz.
We would like to think that we’d get to 6♥ on these cards, it really is a very fine contract. Will it make on the actual lie of the cards? That 5-0 trump break is a definite bump in the road, but it won’t necessarily be fatal. Let’s say that West starts with a Club … now, if Declarer is smart enough (or lucky enough) to start out the Heart suit with A♥ from her hand then, upon getting the bad news, she can start cashing winners, allowing West to ruff in at her leisure, and eventually 12 tricks will be made. If Declarer has the misfortune to start the Hearts with North’s King, she’ll be down one. Unlucky, it really was a fine slam.
Against 1NT, West will probably lead a low Heart, to East’s Nine (better play than the Queen) and Declarer’s Ten. Declarer tries a Spade to the King and Ace, and now the defense must takes its A♥, then its 5 Clubs to beat the contract one trick. If they fail to this immediately, Declarer will scramble 7 or 8 tricks.
After the 1♠ opening, South is always going to game in Spades, and she has various ways of getting there. We rather like her plan of showing strength in Diamonds and then jumping to game, but for more on this please see the Bidding Quiz.
East does best to lead a trump against 4♠, cutting down on Dummy’s ruffs. Declarer can count 6 Spades, A♥, AK♦, and hopefully 2 Hearts ruffs on the board. The play might go as follows: Spade lead, won by Dummy’s Nine (West does well to withhold the Ten) A♥ and ruff a Heart AK♦ and ruff a Diamond with the Eight Heart ruff K♣ (hoping that East will win) won by West’s Ace Q♦, Declarer pitching a Heart loser Now, Declarer ruffs the Club switch, and draws trump for 11 tricks.
This line of play is not without risk and we would never dream of playing this way in a team game. The danger is that East will overruff the 3rd round of Diamonds with the Ten, and then return a trump, setting the contract! This is a risk we’ll take at matchpoints, after all it requires short Diamonds with West, and a third trump for this line to come a cropper. We are happy to risk the occasional setback for a multitude of good boards. At IMPs, however, it’s way too cavalier to risk our vulnerable game like that … our team-mates will never remember the IMP that we won on the 20 other occasions that this board (or its like) was played, but they will remember the time that we lost 12 IMPs playing for an overtrick.
Suppose that East’s opening lead is a Heart. Now, 12 tricks are possible, thanks to the fortuitous location of the Spade Ten. Declarer can organize 3 Heart ruffs on the board, and the ensuing 12 tricks will be close to a top board.
Against 3NT, there’s no reason why West should find the deadly Heart lead, but if he does, Declarer will be down one, she has but 8 tricks to cash. It’s more likely that West will lead a Spade, in which case the play is far more interesting … please see Play Problem # 68.
Singleton Theory Addendum Declarer has a guess in Diamonds, of course, but it’s usual to play for the drop in this situation, unless there is enemy bidding that suggests otherwise. It looks as if Spades are 5-1, which leaves more space in the East hand for Diamonds ... then, again, West did not use Michaels, perhaps that indicates that East has longer Hearts, thereby taking away some of that extra space ... all in all, it's a tough choice as to whether to play for the drop or the finesse in Diamonds. But, let us not forget the Singleton Theory, which we encountered a couple of times last week. It’s more of a mystical belief than a scientific theory, and it is most often used (by those of a non-scientific persuasion) as a guessing tool in these situations where Declarer is missing Qxxx in a suit. The theory says that, if we have a singleton somewhere, then probably so do they, and that their shortness, of course, is most likely to be in our long suit. A mystically inclined Declarer will note the astonishing lack of singletons in the N-S hands and will confidently play for the drop, achieving exactly the same result as those Scientists who are not burdened by such considerations ... yes, we'll let the Scientists play for the drop, too, even though the Spade situation makes the finesse tempting (but see, also, the Play Problem). So, no change in the running score, which remains at: Mystics 2, Scientists 0.
North is not good enough to bid 2♥, just not enough HCPs … the danger with bidding 2♥ is that Partner might start doubling them in a competitive auction, expecting more defense from us. Well, if she can’t bid 2♥, then it’ll have to be a weak jump shift of 3♥. South might have though fleetingly of slam, but that would be somewhat optimistic.
Against 4♥, East leads the 9♠, and Declarer has an easy route to 11 tricks by leaving two trumps out, and organizing a Club ruff in Dummy. Is there a way to try for 12 tricks while still making reasonably sure of 11? After cashing that A♥ at Trick Two, one method is to cash A♦, K♦, and ruff a Diamond high … if Diamonds are 3-3, that’s 12 tricks … if Diamonds are 4-2, as on the actual hand, Declarer crosses to the K♥, ruffs another Diamond high, crosses to the Q♥, and scores the long Diamond as his 11th trick. Of course, this line is not completely without risk, Diamonds might have been 5-1.
Obscure Inference Department: It’s dangerous to ascribe too much logic to the opponents’ bidding, often they don’t bid the same way as you do, and sometimes they just plain make the wrong bid, as do we all. With that forewarning, after West has shown out on the first round of trumps, ask yourself what are the chances of Diamonds being 3-3? Perhaps less than one might think. That would give West 5-0-3-5 or 6-0-3-4 shape. With the first, might he not have tried Michaels? If you think “Yes”, then it reduces the attractiveness of the suggested line of play, and perhaps it’s more advisable just to take the (almost) sure 11 (by going after a Club ruff).
East’s preemptive 4♠ puts South to the guess, and she can hardly be faulted for guessing wrong … 5♦ is down a trick, and so is 4♠. Of course, North could have saved the day by making a slightly off-beat 3♣ preempt over 1♠, that gets N-S to the making 5♣.
The auction could hardly be more straightforward, but the play is fiendishly tricky. Suppose that North leads a Club … she’ll lead the Nine or the Ten, depending on her methods, won by South’s Ace … a Club is returned. And then what? Please see Play Problem # 69.
This one is a matter of style, in particular, South’s style. Would you come in right away with a somewhat undisciplined preempt? Or do you like your initial actions to be sounder, preferring to come in later, if appropriate? We won’t offer any specific recommendation, except to say that come in at some point South surely must, her hand has too much potential to sit idly by.
In 3♠, South makes 9 tricks, and, if E-W venture to 4♣, they will score a bad board, it’ll be -200 even if North forgets to double.
Painful as it must have been for North to pass, we think that she made the right call. There’s no convenient way to explore a minor suit game, 4♥ looks like a long shot, as does 3NT.
Playing in Hearts, West will lead the K♠, ducked in Dummy, but then must shift to avoid blowing a trick. With the T♥ coming down in 3 rounds, Declarer ends up with 10 tricks, losing just a Spade, a Heart, and a Diamond.
Playing in Clubs, even more tricks are available. Say that North is Declarer, and East finds the best lead of a Spade. There is a double dummy line to make 12 tricks … win the first Spade, cash a high Club, cross to the Queen (gleefully noting the fall of the Jack!), take ruffing finesses of the A♥, then when the A♥ has come down, cross to the T♣, run the Hearts (pitching Spades, then Diamonds), and lead towards the ♦KJ, guessing right for the 12th trick. We hate to argue with success, but this is a very low percentage line of play, more likely to score 7 or 8 tricks than 12. A more practical line of play is to win the Spade, lead a low Diamond to the 8 and Queen … the defense cashes two Spades, but cannot stop Declarer from taking ruffing finesses against the A♦ for 10 tricks.
How does 3NT do? It’s probably down two … the defense will score 3 Spades, 2 Diamonds, and a Heart. True, down one is achievable, but it’s similar to the aforementioned low percentage line.
Normally, we don’t use Stayman unless we have at least invitational values. However, when we have a lesser hand, and both majors, there is a school of thought which says that we should try for the 4-4 major fit anyway, even though we have no intention of bidding game or trying for game. The theory is that the odds favor us being able to improve the contract in 2♥ or 2♠. East obviously subscribed to this theory, and hit pay-dirt when Opener obligingly responded 2♥. It turns out that 2♥ makes 9 or 10 tricks (depends how Declarer guesses the trump suit), whereas 1NT makes but 7 or 8 tricks. For more on this, please see the Bidding Quiz.
North would have loved to make a preemptive 3♦ call over 1♥, but, of course, 3♦ is not preemptive, it’s a hand with invitational values. So 2♦ was the best she could do, planning to compete to 3♦ if possible.
The E-W auction was quite tortuous as they explored game in Clubs, No Trump and Hearts. As they finally picked the best game, perhaps it’s unfair to call the auction “tortuous”, maybe “delicate and well-judged” is more appropriate. The auction is most instructive, we think, please see the Bidding Quiz.
It was a pretty routine auction until 2♥ got passed around to East … then East, South and West all got presented with interesting bidding problems, each of which is covered in the Bidding Quiz.
3♠ by E-W turns out to be a routine make, while 3♥ by N-S is probably down one (but down two in the unlikely event that the defense is able to orchestrate a Club ruff).
That 1NT opening will not be to everyone’s taste, although we certainly have no problem with it. East did not really have a satisfactory bid at his second turn, we like his choice of Pass, even though it was not exactly guaranteed to succeed … please see the Bidding Quiz.
Against 2♥, it seems natural enough for North to lead the J♠, and now Declarer can make 9 tricks. But, he probably won’t! He may use that Spade entry to lead a Club to the board, thinking that eventually two such leads will be required. This will result in just 8 tricks for Declarer, as the defense scores a Club ruff as well as 2 Hearts, a Diamond, and a Club. Of course, if North’s opening lead is the A♣, that will be the same 5 tricks for the defense.
What does 3♠ mean in the balancing seat here? With the opponents already giving up on game, the bid should be constructive, looking for some help from Partner to make game. It turns out that North has the perfect holding and 4♠ does indeed make. Bidding this game is a somewhat hit or miss affair, we’d guess that half will, half won’t.
On second thoughts, perhaps North is worth a 4♠ bid, we’d consider it a pretty close call.
North had an awkward rebid problem and might well have tried 2NT or even 3♥. The actual choice of 2♥ put South on the spot, with nothing but unappetizing choices … not good enough for 2NT, and left with the alternatives of a 5-1 Spade fit or a probable 4-2 Heart fit. The 5-1 seemed the less undesirable, but North’s 2NT turned out to be the final contract.
The play could go off in all sorts of different directions, but the cards are quite well placed for Declarer. There’s the winning Diamond finesse, and the 9♠ which comes down in 3 rounds. Declarer can make 9 tricks if she avoids taking the losing Heart finesse, 8 tricks otherwise.
North’s hand is not good enough for a game invitation, and a cozy little 2♠ contract is reached after a transfer auction. Who enjoys choosing an opening lead when there is a strong balanced hand on our right? We don’t, that’s for sure, it’s a most hazardous occupation, the opportunities for blowing tricks are apparent. With that in mind, choose your poison on this opening lead, as West: - A trump lead? No, we don’t think so! - A Diamond? Out of the question! Against a suit contract this is a risky lead at the best of times, and leading into strength is hardly the best of times. - A Club? Another lead that is likely to blow a trick (and so it does)\ - A Heart? It’s not the opening lead of our dreams, but it does look like the safest bet.
Which Heart would you lead? We don’t recommend “top of nothing”, how will Partner know whether you are leading from two small or three small? The days of the MUD agreement (as in Middle-Up-Down) appear to have come to a close, not too great a tragedy in our humble opinion. That leaves a lead of the lowest, the two-spot … if you play “third and fifth” leads against suit contracts, then rejoice … if it’s 4th best leads then lead your 3rd best Heart out of necessity and hope for the best.
It turns out that even leading a “safe” Heart is not such a great bargain, as that saves Declarer from a potential losing guess … Declarer will play the Spades the “natural” way, which is to cash the King and finesse into the long hand … when that works, and trumps have been drawn, Declarer works on the Heart suit and ends up scoring 9 tricks … 5 Spades, 3 Hearts, and just one Diamond when the finesse loses.
North’s Forcing 1NT, followed by a jump to 3♠, showed a 3-card limit raise, and South had plenty of extras for bidding game.
The N-S hands fit together poorly (look at North’s Club wastage, for example), and 4♠ needs some luck to make, but the luck is with the defense, as the Q♠ is off-side. We are far from convinced that West, on opening lead, should lead his singleton Diamond into Declarer’s second suit, but if he finds that dubious start then 4♠ will be down two.
Should South make a slam try? We don’t think so. It’s conceivable that North has the ♠AQ and a red Ace, but even that will only be 11 tricks with a red suit finesse needed for 12. So, we’d just bid 3NT and try for the better scoring game contract, also seeking to protect those red suit holdings from the opening lead.
Of course, 3NT is only the better scoring contract if you can make the same number of tricks, and it turns out that, provided West leads a Heart (as seems likely), 3NT makes just 10 tricks against 11 in 4♠. Somewhat unfortunate in our view … for example, interchange the E-W hands, and 3NT makes 10 tricks, whereas 4♠ is down one on a Diamond lead … even without the Diamond ruff, it’s still 10 tricks in either contract.
That’s not much of a suit for a 3-level preempt, but the vulnerability’s right and 3♠ is a fine spot, considering that N-S can make 9 tricks in Clubs.
3♠ can be beaten one trick, but it requires careful defense. A Diamond lead from South, low from the board, won by North’s Ace … then the defense cashes 2 Clubs, and reverts to Diamonds … now, if Declarer draws trumps he has a 2nd Diamond loser, and, if he plays on Hearts, South will win the Ace and lead a third round of Diamonds, forcing Dummy to ruff and promoting a trump trick for the defense.
The defense looks pretty easy when you can see all four hands, but it’s easy to see how a trick might be lost. For example, North wins the opening Diamond lead, the defense tries to cash 3 Clubs … Declarer ruffs the third one, of course, and loses a Heart … now, it’s too late for the defense to get that trump promotion and 9 tricks is the result. How does the defense avoid this trap? Careful count signals and spot-watching are required. When North wins that opening Diamond lead, she must shift to the appropriate Club spot. For example, if N-S play 4th best leads, North shifts to the Five, and then when South cashes her second Club, North plays the Four … this sequence of plays should make it pretty clear that North started with 5 Clubs, and that the third one won’t cash. Similarly, if N-S play “3rd and 5th” leads, at Trick Two, North shifts to the Four, and South should be able to work things out.
Splendid bidding by South, we think! Her 4♥ bid was intended as preemptive, based on a likely double fit in the majors, and the favorable vulnerability. After 4♥, West made his best guess, which was 5♦, probably more worried about missing slam than making game.
It turns out that making even game is a tough proposition, but the good news is that North is on lead, and may well start with the A♥, which hands Declarer his 11th trick. In fact, if North doesn’t shift to a Spade at Trick Two, Declarer will get a risk-free shot at trying for a 12th trick in the Club suit.
The J♣ opening lead is not much better, as it gives away the Club situation, and allows 11 tricks to be made. The most testing lead is a risky-looking Spade, for more on which please see Play Problem # 70.
West might well have opened 2♠, of course, but reasonably thought better of it, given his crummy suit and the vulnerability. Either way, West is likely to end up as Declarer in a Spade contract, and the fortunate lie of the cards allows 10 tricks to be made. North will try the A♥ to start with, and must shift with alacrity to a Club just to hold Declarer to 10 tricks.
Over East’s 1♥ one might make an argument for South to bid 1♠ or 2♠ or 3♠, all have their merits and defects (please see the Bidding Quiz).
To beat 3♠, West must find the opening lead of A♠ (followed by another Spade), depriving Declarer of her 9th trick (via a Club ruff on the board). We don’t think this is likely to happen, the K♣ lead is more attractive by far. After all, doesn’t it seem bizarre to start drawing trumps when we have void in Partner’s suit, and when we further suspect that Partner might well be short in our suit?
Of course, if West has a history of tragic opening leads, East might be persuaded to bid 4♥, allowing South the opportunity to blow the board on opening lead. The winning opening lead is the J♦ (setting up the 4th trick through a Diamond ruff), and we think this is a lead that South should find. Consider the alternatives: - A Spade lead? It doesn’t look as if we have more that one defensive Spade trick, if any. Is it worth trying to pump Declarer with repeated Spade leads? Probably not, it seems that Declarer has plenty of trumps and is unlikely to lose control. - A Heart lead? That can hardly be right, there seem to be no merits whatsoever to this one. - A Club lead? The only reason for this would be if we can get a ruff for Partner, and that seems unlikely. So, that leaves a Diamond, which is not necessarily made with the intention of getting a ruff, it simply looks like the most promising source of potential tricks. Nice lead by South, if she found it, we suspect that most players would lead the “safe” K♠.
Here we have another one of those white versus red preempts that most of us find so hard to resist. 3♣ certainly put the cat among the pigeons … East bid 3♥ on his inadequate suit, but really had no good alternative … South tried 3♠, safe in the knowledge that Cubs was a safe haven … North tried 3NT based on her Heart stop, but that was somewhat optimistic, perhaps, considering the weak Clubs.
It’s not often that we play in 3NT on a combined 19-count, and it’s no great surprise that a red suit lead from East beats the contract, though only by one trick. It’s difficult to assess how N-S will score with their -50 result. Some of their counterparts will be in 4♣ (also -50), maybe even 5♣ (-100). On the other hand, E-W can manage 10 tricks in Hearts, thanks to the 2-2 Diamond split … it’s hard to see many pairs getting there, though, but no doubt there will be a sprinkling of 170’s on the score-sheet, especially at those tables where North does not venture a 3♣ opening. In other words, we have absolutely no idea what is going to happen on this board, we expect results all over the map.
It seems as if N-S should stumble into 3NT one way or another, and when they do they’ll score 9 tricks, with no chance of more. But, don’t let’s give up on this hand completely, please see the Bidding Quiz for some thoughts on East’s sequence.
3NT by East is the likely contract at most tables, and after a Spade to the Ace, and a Spade continuation, Declarer has 9 easy tricks. Strangely, if South finds the unlikely lead of a Club (or Heart), Declarer might be persuaded that his best chance of 9th trick will be to finesse the J♦ early in the play … this will not be a great success!
The Rule of Twenty is not infallible, but it often gives us good advice. For example, it advises us against opening with a square 12-count, and we certainly agree with that sentiment. The proof of that particular pudding is in the West hand … oh, yuck, who would want to open that heap of junk?
It turns out that 3NT is not so wonderful a contract, at least in theory, and that nor is any other E-W game contract. North leads a Heart, and it takes the singleton or doubleton Q♦ to bring this one home, something like a 35% chance. But good things sometimes happen to those who do not open crummy 12-counts (and also to those who do), and here 10 tricks roll in.
Atlanta Addendum: Our newly participating friends from Georgia had something to say about this deal. They claim that, in Georgia at least, 11 tricks are possible. North leads a Heart to South's Ace ... a low Heart is returned and won by Declarer (no point in ducking when the lead of the Four makes it clear that the suit is 5-4) ... cash 8 minor suit tricks, ending in the West hand ... by now, the defense will have shed enough Hearts for it to be safe to try an end-play, so Declarer exits a Heart, and, lo and behold, North is obliged to win his Q♥ and lead away from his K♠ which will be 11 tricks for Declarer. Of course, North can unblock the Q♥ (and no doubt should), but, hey, if you don't give the opponents a chance to go wrong then they won't.
Do you and your Partner have any agreements on that 4th suit bid of 3♦? The auction is already game-forcing, of course, so we don’t need to bid 3♦ for the purpose of creating a force … but we might want to bid 3♦ if we were not sure where the auction should be headed. And, so it was with North’s 3♦ … she had a Diamond stop (well, probably!), but did not want to suggest 3NT too strongly … she had a Club fit and (slight) slam potential but did not want to over-emphasize the Clubs and go beyond 3NT … she had a 5-card Spade suit, but not one which could bear re-bidding … so, in the absence of a good alternative, she trotted out the 4th suit.
3NT is the final destination on this one, and N-S have 10 top tricks, and 11 if West ambitiously leads a Diamond.
After East rebids her Clubs, many partnerships play that the 2♦ bid is a kind of “New Minor Forcing”, it may not show Diamonds, it may just be the most convenient way to elicit 3-card Spade support from Partner. On the actual auction, West had both Diamonds and interest in 3-card support, and E-W soon arrive in 4♠.
Leading the Ace without the King against a suit contract is generally not advised, but here it seems to have some merit. Firstly, the alternatives don’t look so hot … secondly, it looks as if the opponents are in a 5-3 fit, in which case, with Partner having 4 of them, a forcing defense might be the best chance. Suppose that North does lead the A♥, and continues a Heart, ruffed by Declarer. It’s a complicated hand, with imponderables in Spades, Diamonds and Clubs, but it does look best to lose a Spade early, while there is still a trump in Dummy to take care of the Heart attack. Therefore, we’d cross to the K♦, and finesse the T♠ … when this surprisingly wins, it’s far from obvious how to proceed, but the winning line is to take the Diamond ruff on the board, scoring 11 tricks on the actual lie of the cards.
But, to be honest, making just 10 tricks is likely to be a good result. For example, the play might go: A♥ lead, and continuation, ruffed by Declarer A♠, then K♠, getting the bad news A♣, then K♣, the second being ruffed by South South draws a third round of trumps South then continues Hearts, which Declarer ruffs with his last trump Now, the unfortunate breaks in the black suits will hold Declarer to just 8 tricks!
Against 2♠, East leads the K♦ and an interesting battle commences. North has 5 Spade tricks, the A♥, and a Club trick. At first glance, it may seem as if she has the timing for a Heart ruff in Dummy, but it's not quite that simple, there are transportation issues, to say nothing of a potential Diamond overruff. It's not obvious what the best line is, but it looks right to duck a Diamond, win the Diamond continuation, and lead a Club to the Queen, attempting to improve the communications between the hands. Now, a Heart to the Queen and King, which places East at the cross-roads. He can go in one of three directions: Line A: Cash the A♣ ... not a good idea, that just sets up Declarer's King ... of course, East can now play on Diamonds, in which case Declarer must ruff high with the Queen and finesse against the Jack. Making 8 tricks! Line B: Play on Diamonds directly ... now, Dummy pitches a Club on the 4th round of Diamonds (and West by now has pitched 2 Clubs), wins the Spade shift (West does not squander the Jack) with the Eight, and plays a Heart to the Jack and Ace. Now, it seems reasonable to go for the Heart ruff by winning the Spade (in hand), ruffing a Club, ruffing a Heart, and ruffing a Club with the Ten (hoping that the Jack is with East). This line fails! Line C: Shift to a trump. Now, Declarer can win the Spade Eight, lose a Club, and eventually ruff out the Ace. Making 8 tricks!
It's a complex hand, we have probably just scratched the surface!
This week we finish with a whimper, 2♠ making 9 tricks on a routine auction … perhaps you were in a 15-table Mitchell and did not have to waste time playing this board!
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