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Hand Analyses 20th September, 2006
A straightforward auction, but what an ugly hand East has when it comes to choose an opening lead! We don’t have any advice to offer, it really looks like a guess. We’d probably lead a trump or a Spade, but not with any enthusiasm. The friendly lie of the cards makes 12 tricks possible … Declarer will score 7 Hearts, 2 Diamonds, one Spade (via a ruffing finesse), one Club, and a Club ruff. The truly disastrous opening lead turns out to be a Club, that will be 13 tricks for Declarer! Perhaps that Club lead is a tad too aggressive, but it’s always easier to judge these things when you can see all four hands.
Another uncontroversial auction. South leads a 4th best Heart, won by North. Five Hearts are cashed … North does well to hang on to all of her Diamonds, so she pitches two Clubs and a Spade … from necessity, Declarer pitches two Clubs … if South is following the proceedings carefully she’ll know that A♣ and out a Club is the way to go. The bottom line? Declarer wins the second Club, tries the Diamonds, and when they don’t break she throws in North with the 4th round of Diamonds. North is obliged to lead the Spades, and that will be Declarer’s 5th trick.
Down two might not seem like such a great triumph, but on this board it is! A score of -100 when they can make 9 or 10 tricks in Spades cannot be bad.
How do you like the North hand for slam purposes? We like it a lot, we like the high card structure, and those nice Tens. But, it’s not worth charging into some kind of Blackwood auction, that won’t tell us anything, no doubt we have enough controls to make slam. No, the way to go on this hand is to invite Partner’s opinion. We’re all familiar with the 1NT 4NT auction which does precisely that, namely “Do you like your hand? If so, bid six” But, do you and your Partner have a method for inviting that opinion after a Stayman auction? If not, please see the Bidding Quiz.
We would like to think that we’d get to 6♥ on these cards, it really is a very fine contract. Will it make on the actual lie of the cards? That 5-0 trump break is a definite bump in the road, but it won’t necessarily be fatal. Let’s say that West starts with a Club … now, if Declarer is smart enough (or lucky enough) to start out the Heart suit with A♥ from her hand then, upon getting the bad news, she can start cashing winners, allowing West to ruff in at her leisure, and eventually 12 tricks will be made. If Declarer has the misfortune to start the Hearts with North’s King, she’ll be down one. Unlucky, it really was a fine slam.
Against 1NT, West will probably lead a low Heart, to East’s Nine (better play than the Queen) and Declarer’s Ten. Declarer tries a Spade to the King and Ace, and now the defense must takes its A♥, then its 5 Clubs to beat the contract one trick. If they fail to this immediately, Declarer will scramble 7 or 8 tricks.
After the 1♠ opening, South is always going to game in Spades, and she has various ways of getting there. We rather like her plan of showing strength in Diamonds and then jumping to game, but for more on this please see the Bidding Quiz.
East does best to lead a trump against 4♠, cutting down on Dummy’s ruffs. Declarer can count 6 Spades, A♥, AK♦, and hopefully 2 Hearts ruffs on the board. The play might go as follows: Spade lead, won by Dummy’s Nine (West does well to withhold the Ten) A♥ and ruff a Heart AK♦ and ruff a Diamond with the Eight Heart ruff K♣ (hoping that East will win) won by West’s Ace Q♦, Declarer pitching a Heart loser Now, Declarer ruffs the Club switch, and draws trump for 11 tricks.
This line of play is not without risk and we would never dream of playing this way in a team game. The danger is that East will overruff the 3rd round of Diamonds with the Ten, and then return a trump, setting the contract! This is a risk we’ll take at matchpoints, after all it requires short Diamonds with West, and a third trump for this line to come a cropper. We are happy to risk the occasional setback for a multitude of good boards. At IMPs, however, it’s way too cavalier to risk our vulnerable game like that … our team-mates will never remember the IMP that we won on the 20 other occasions that this board (or its like) was played, but they will remember the time that we lost 12 IMPs playing for an overtrick.
Suppose that East’s opening lead is a Heart. Now, 12 tricks are possible, thanks to the fortuitous location of the Spade Ten. Declarer can organize 3 Heart ruffs on the board, and the ensuing 12 tricks will be close to a top board.
Against 3NT, there’s no reason why West should find the deadly Heart lead, but if he does, Declarer will be down one, she has but 8 tricks to cash. It’s more likely that West will lead a Spade, in which case the play is far more interesting … please see Play Problem # 68.
Singleton Theory Addendum Declarer has a guess in Diamonds, of course, but it’s usual to play for the drop in this situation, unless there is enemy bidding that suggests otherwise. It looks as if Spades are 5-1, which leaves more space in the East hand for Diamonds ... then, again, West did not use Michaels, perhaps that indicates that East has longer Hearts, thereby taking away some of that extra space ... all in all, it's a tough choice as to whether to play for the drop or the finesse in Diamonds. But, let us not forget the Singleton Theory, which we encountered a couple of times last week. It’s more of a mystical belief than a scientific theory, and it is most often used (by those of a non-scientific persuasion) as a guessing tool in these situations where Declarer is missing Qxxx in a suit. The theory says that, if we have a singleton somewhere, then probably so do they, and that their shortness, of course, is most likely to be in our long suit. A mystically inclined Declarer will note the astonishing lack of singletons in the N-S hands and will confidently play for the drop, achieving exactly the same result as those Scientists who are not burdened by such considerations ... yes, we'll let the Scientists play for the drop, too, even though the Spade situation makes the finesse tempting (but see, also, the Play Problem). So, no change in the running score, which remains at: Mystics 2, Scientists 0.
North is not good enough to bid 2♥, just not enough HCPs … the danger with bidding 2♥ is that Partner might start doubling them in a competitive auction, expecting more defense from us. Well, if she can’t bid 2♥, then it’ll have to be a weak jump shift of 3♥. South might have though fleetingly of slam, but that would be somewhat optimistic.
Against 4♥, East leads the 9♠, and Declarer has an easy route to 11 tricks by leaving two trumps out, and organizing a Club ruff in Dummy. Is there a way to try for 12 tricks while still making reasonably sure of 11? After cashing that A♥ at Trick Two, one method is to cash A♦, K♦, and ruff a Diamond high … if Diamonds are 3-3, that’s 12 tricks … if Diamonds are 4-2, as on the actual hand, Declarer crosses to the K♥, ruffs another Diamond high, crosses to the Q♥, and scores the long Diamond as his 11th trick. Of course, this line is not completely without risk, Diamonds might have been 5-1.
Obscure Inference Department: It’s dangerous to ascribe too much logic to the opponents’ bidding, often they don’t bid the same way as you do, and sometimes they just plain make the wrong bid, as do we all. With that forewarning, after West has shown out on the first round of trumps, ask yourself what are the chances of Diamonds being 3-3? Perhaps less than one might think. That would give West 5-0-3-5 or 6-0-3-4 shape. With the first, might he not have tried Michaels? If you think “Yes”, then it reduces the attractiveness of the suggested line of play, and perhaps it’s more advisable just to take the (almost) sure 11 (by going after a Club ruff).
East’s preemptive 4♠ puts South to the guess, and she can hardly be faulted for guessing wrong … 5♦ is down a trick, and so is 4♠. Of course, North could have saved the day by making a slightly off-beat 3♣ preempt over 1♠, that gets N-S to the making 5♣.
The auction could hardly be more straightforward, but the play is fiendishly tricky. Suppose that North leads a Club … she’ll lead the Nine or the Ten, depending on her methods, won by South’s Ace … a Club is returned. And then what? Please see Play Problem # 69.
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