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Hand Analyses 30th August, 2006
A whole bunch of debatable calls in this auction: 1♣: North can count up to 19 on a Rule of Twenty basis, but there’s a nice sprinkling of fillers, so we think it’s worth opening (not that Pass would be wrong) 2♦: Playing Michaels and the Unusual No Trump, East has no way of showing this two-suiter in a single bid. We like a Diamond bid here, and prefer 2♦ to 1♦ … after all, Partner is a passed hand, we have but 7 HCPs, and we are non-vulnerable, so it looks like a preempt might be the best bet. And, yes, it is a bit offbeat to preempt with an undisclosed 5-card major! South’s Dbl: Negative, of course, showing at least one of the majors … note the difference between this and the auction 1♣ (1♦) Dbl, which is generally played as showing both majors. North’s Dbl: What does this show? With the opponents bidding and raising Diamonds, this is definitely take-out, probably with 4-4 or 4-3 in the majors. Is North’s hand good enough for the bid? It would be nice to have a bit more in high-card strength, but at least Double is the bid most likely to get us to our best suit, so worth a small stretch, we think. South’s Pass: At this point in the proceedings, South had 3 reasonable choices, for which, please see the Bidding Quiz.
How does 3♦ doubled fare? It’s going down one or two, and which it is will depend on South’s opening lead. So, for the first time in the history of the Wednesday Game, we actually have an opening lead problem, please see Problem # 64.
If N-S play it in Hearts, with the benefit of seeing the Hand Record, they can scrape up 10 tricks … in real life, just staying out of game and making 9 tricks will be a very good board.
SAYC Note: In SAYC, that Double by North would not be available as a take-out bid, so she would be in something of a bind over West’s 3♦ call. In that case, we’d bid 3♥, and the fate of the board will be in South’s capable hands … well, capable only if she finds a Pass! South’s hand has been lessened by those Diamond bids … it looks as if Partner has a singleton Diamond, so South’s K♦ is of dubious value, and her 11-count is likely to be a working 8-count. In the circumstances, Pass seems to be the way to go.
Over South’s 2♦, West’s No Trump options are: 2NT: 15-18, maybe even a crummy 19. Dbl then 2NT: 19-20 Dbl then 3NT: 21+
How about a direct 3NT over 2♦? It’s suggested that you reserve this for trick-oriented hands, such as ♠ A6, ♥ T95, ♦ A3, ♣ AKQJ97. With this hand we are not bidding 3NT on sheer high-card power, we’re hoping that our running Clubs, and a little help from Partner, will be enough for 9 tricks.
In 3NT Declarer will make 10 tricks on normal play, scoring 4 Spades, and two in each of the other suits. It’s possible to make 11 tricks, but the line of play is highly improbable, involving a “backward finesse” in Hearts (lead the Ten, which is covered by the Jack, and later finesse the Eight!).
System Note: For an interesting expert bidding agreement, please see the Bidding Quiz.
We’ve discussed Super-Accepts after 1NT in earlier Wednesday Games, and our suggested approach to this is to use 2NT for all good Super-Accepts, the rationale being that this method does not volunteer information to the opponents unnecessarily. There does not seem to be any good reason not to use the same method after a 2NT opening, and that is what the featured auction does. 3NT was a super-accept in Spades, and 4♥ was a “re-transfer” back to Spades, allowing the strong hand to be Declarer.
When the Spades behave, twelve tricks are possible with the aid of a successful guess in Hearts.
SAYC Note: Without the benefit of any special Super-Accept agreements, a logical auction would be 2♣ 2♦, 2NT 3♥, 4♠ Pass.
We wonder how many 790’s will be on the score-sheet? North’s second Double was understandable, so maybe quite a few!
The auction is reasonable enough, but the final contract is not especially appetizing.
When East leads a Club against 3NT, things look bleak for Declarer. Even if the Diamonds come home for 4 tricks, that’s still only 8 tricks in total, unless the J♠ comes down in 3 rounds. The compounded chances of this good fortune are quite slim (no more than about 7% by our calculations), and intuitively the odds of playing on Hearts seems better, as that just requires luck in one suit. The luck required is that both AK♥ are in the hand without the long Club, and that we can guess the whereabouts of the T♥, and a little more good fortune (either the T♥ must come down in 3 rounds, or we still need one extra trick from Spades or Diamonds). This turns out to be excellent intuition because, according to our Statistics Department, the probability of success by playing on Hearts is a whopping 10% or thereabouts. Playing with the odds turns out to be the winning line, and (after ducking a couple of Clubs) a first round finesse of the 8♥ brings home 9 improbable tricks.
Do you think that the North hand is good enough to force to game? Or is it invitational only? Seems like a close call to us, so you choose. Now, having made your choice, what are your methods?
If you think the North hand is invitational: The most common method with this so-called invitational hand is to transfer to Hearts and then bid 2♠, showing 4-5 in the majors. And, if we are 5-4 in the majors? Then the prescribed method is to use Stayman, and then over 2♦ to bid 2♠.
If you think the North hand is game-forcing: Now, we use Stayman, and if Partner bids 2♦, we jump to 3 of a major. There is a little wrinkle available, namely Smolen … playing this gadget, we jump to three of the 4-card major, instead of to three of the 5-card major … this way we get the strong hand as Declarer if we end up playing in game in the 5-3 major fit. Without Smolen, the auction will be 1NT 2♣, 2♦ 3♥, 4♥ Pass, resulting in North being the Declarer.
4♥ played by North is a hopeless contract … those who play Smolen can take comfort in the fact that their superior methods have right-sided the contract, as 4♥ played by North is not at all hopeless, merely rather poor!
From the North side, it will be normal for East to lead the J♦, and that is an instant down one. From the South side, 4♥ may be down one also, but it has practical chances … West will lead the A♦, and must shift to avoid giving Declarer his 10th trick … he must also avoid shifting to a Spade, as that will also present Declarer with the contract … shifting to a Club or a trump will beat the contract, unless Declarer is inspired enough to finesse against East’s J♠, a play which is only slightly against the odds.
Hopefully there’s no mistaking North’s 4♦ bid here … Heart support and slam interest!
A bold 6NT bid by West, aiming for the better matchpoint score, of course. More on this in the Bidding Quiz.
It’s North’s misfortune that her opponents reached 6NT, but she can salvage a few matchpoints if she grabs her A♣ at Trick One. Should she? Well, we think so, but, of course, we can see all four hands.
After that obvious 1♥ 1♠ start, the auction got rather interesting:
2♦: West must have been tempted to jump to 3♦ with that lovely hand … it’s only 16 HCPs, but there’s that great distribution and the fitting honors with Partner’s Spades. We prefer 2♦, though, we need to find a fit if this hand is to meet its full potential.
2♥: A simple preference, not good enough for anything more.
2♠: This clearly shows a good hand … with 3-card support and minimum values, West would have had no qualms about raising 1♠ to 2♠ with 3-card support and a ruffing value.
3NT: With two Aces, East has plenty for 3NT (although 4♠ is also a possibility).
Such a delicate auction, such a terrible contract. We are only at Board 8 and we have already found ourselves in contracts which were “unappetizing”, “hopeless”, “rather poor”, and now “terrible”. Can sub-par, dismal and precarious be in our future?
The good news for E-W is that Diamonds are 3-3, the Spade finesse works, and it is impossible to misguess Hearts. Making 9 or 10 tricks. Not so terrible after all!
Another delicate auction, but this time to a reasonable contract, albeit a most unfortunate one. The auction will dictate a Spade lead from East, which knocks out Dummy’s entry before the Diamonds can be unblocked. Even so, Declarer still has a reasonable play for 10 or 11 tricks … win the Spade, cross to the A♦, AK♣, then a low Club, hoping to ruff on the board, and, if this works, cash the K♦ (pitching a Spade), and try the Heart finesse. This will be worth 11 tricks on a good day, 10 tricks most days, and just 9 tricks on this day … yes, most unfortunate.
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