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Hand Analyses 16th August, 2006
West’s Double was Responsive, showing the unbid suits. Over 3♠, perhaps East should have pushed on to 4♣, he only needs a couple of working cards from Partner to make 10 tricks, and, if he is destined to go down one, then 3♠ will likely make.
But we had our reasons for that wimpy Pass by East … we wanted to offer 3♠ by North as a Play Problem!
Against 3NT, North will lead a Spade, and Declarer will need to get the Diamonds going to make his contract. The straightforward line is to win the J♠ on the board, and finesse the Q♦. This loses to the King, and North continues with the A♠ and out a Spade. At this point, Declarer will do all he can to keep North off lead, so will cross to the Q♣, lead a low Diamond towards his hand, going up with the Q♦ when South plays low. This works like a charm when the J♦ falls, and South turns out to have the T♦ and A♥. Making 3NT on this difficult hand should be worth most of the matchpoints.
As East must lose at least one Diamond, would it not have been better for Declarer to lay down the A♦ at Trick 2? Not really, he might fall prey to a clever false-card. If North holds JTx, it costs her nothing to drop the Jack (or the Ten) under the Ace, giving Declarer a losing option of finessing the 9 on the second round of the suit. If North has the A♥ to go along with her JTx of Diamonds, then Declarer’s cold contract is now down 3!
A direct 1NT overcall usually shows 15-18 HCPs, with something good in RHO’s suit. In the balancing seat, things are different. Typically, the range drops to 10-14 or thereabouts, the logic being that this makes it easier for the balancer to get into the auction when he does not have a hand suitable for a take-out Double. After that 10-14 1NT, South’s Double should surely show 18+ HCPs … after all, she is opposite a Partner who could not even respond to 1♣, so she needs a really good hand to make such a power move.
In the defense to 2♠, East will probably lead a Diamond, if only by default (the alternatives are unappealing), and that will set up a 5th defensive trick.
On the previous board we discussed how the range for a 1NT overcall is lowered when in the balancing seat. Here, opposite an overcaller, the reverse applies, we need more to bid 1NT. If Partner opens 1♣ or 1♦ we typically need 6-10 to respond 1NT … but when Partner has merely overcalled, our bid of 1NT should be somewhat stronger, let’s say 8-11 or thereabouts. South’s jump to 3♥ was cognizant of this fact, and 3NT was easily reached.
Declarer has 9 top tricks, with little hope for more (other than from a charitable lead).
Each side has half the points in this Spade-Diamond part-score battle, and in these situations it’s usually extra distribution or an extra trump which justifies taking one more call in the direct seat. Here, East had that Diamond shortness for his 3♠ bid. Needless to say, that 3♠ bid was not inviting game … if East had wanted to do that he would have tried 3♥, which says nothing about Hearts, it merely seeks Partner’s opinion about game.
As it happens, 4♠ can be made, but not on any realistic line of play ... to make 10 tricks Declarer must double-hook North's J9 of Clubs rather than play her for the Ace.
How does South fare in Diamonds? The defense has an easy route to 4 tricks, just by cashing 2 Spades and shifting to Clubs. Declarer has a third Spade loser in his hand, of course, but that can be ruffed in Dummy, so 9 tricks is routine on that defense. Do we hear some Wests out there saying "Third Spade ruffed in Dummy, my eye! I'm leading a trump on the go!" Yes, that will stop the ruff alright, but it will also allow the Hearts to be set up, and now no fewer than ten tricks will materialize for Declarer. Let's follow a possible line of play: - Diamond 2 led, won by Dummy's 6 - Low Heart to the Jack and King - Now West has no good defense, and 10 tricks are made. After that opening trump lead, and then the low Heart from the board, does East do better to pop up with the Q♥? No, Declarer will unblock the Jack and it's 10 tricks once again.
The auction is likely to be repeated around the room, but who can guess what all those Easts will be leading? A Heart will be the lead that makes Declarer the most nervous, but all roads lead to 9 tricks.
Against 2♥, North might well lead a Spade … J87 is not an appealing suit, but it is the unbid suit, and the other suits look even less appetizing. If a Spade is led, the defense can come to 5 tricks … Spade lead, won by South’s King, then a Diamond shift, and eventually a Diamond ruff. Holding 2♥ to 8 tricks should be a fine score for N-S.
System Note: Nowadays, many players play "Walsh-style". In this method, after a 1♣ opening, Responder will by-pass his Diamond suit in favor of a major suit unless he has a decent hand (the definition of "decent" varies from partnership to partnership, but typically at least invitational values, a hand that will take another call if Opener makes a minimum rebid). So, on this hand, Walshites would respond 1♥ thereby making East Declarer. Now holding Declarer to 8 tricks is more likely, it seems to us that South has a natural Diamond lead.
At her first turn, South was a whisker away (well, maybe two or three whiskers on second thoughts) from dredging up a 2♦ bid. In the balancing seat, North has a pretty good hand, and might have considered doubling, notwithstanding the poor Diamond holding. But we prefer that 1♠ bid, it's more descriptive, and North can always come back in later with a Double to show those extra values. Indeed, that's exactly what happens next time around ... North doubles and South finally gets to bid her Diamonds.
In Diamonds, a lucky 11 tricks materialize, but game is probably no better that 30% to succeed. Not one that needs to be bid. Come to that, the 4-3 Spade fit is also worth 11 lucky tricks.
N-S can beat 3♦ but only with the right opening lead and perfect defense. South must lead a Spade, which Declarer must duck to give himself a chance. North wins the Q♠, and underleads the A♣ to get back to Partner’s hand for another Spade lead. Any other defense is inadequate to beat 3♦. To see what happens if South makes the opening lead of the K♣, and then shifts to a Spade at Trick 2, please see the Play Problem.
No doubt N-S could have done more in the auction, selling out to 3♦ was not a very strong bidding effort at all. Who bungled the N-S auction? Please see the Bidding Quiz.
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