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Hand Analyses 16th August, 2006
West’s Double was Responsive, showing the unbid suits. Over 3♠, perhaps East should have pushed on to 4♣, he only needs a couple of working cards from Partner to make 10 tricks, and, if he is destined to go down one, then 3♠ will likely make.
But we had our reasons for that wimpy Pass by East … we wanted to offer 3♠ by North as a Play Problem!
Against 3NT, North will lead a Spade, and Declarer will need to get the Diamonds going to make his contract. The straightforward line is to win the J♠ on the board, and finesse the Q♦. This loses to the King, and North continues with the A♠ and out a Spade. At this point, Declarer will do all he can to keep North off lead, so will cross to the Q♣, lead a low Diamond towards his hand, going up with the Q♦ when South plays low. This works like a charm when the J♦ falls, and South turns out to have the T♦ and A♥. Making 3NT on this difficult hand should be worth most of the matchpoints.
As East must lose at least one Diamond, would it not have been better for Declarer to lay down the A♦ at Trick 2? Not really, he might fall prey to a clever false-card. If North holds JTx, it costs her nothing to drop the Jack (or the Ten) under the Ace, giving Declarer a losing option of finessing the 9 on the second round of the suit. If North has the A♥ to go along with her JTx of Diamonds, then Declarer’s cold contract is now down 3!
A direct 1NT overcall usually shows 15-18 HCPs, with something good in RHO’s suit. In the balancing seat, things are different. Typically, the range drops to 10-14 or thereabouts, the logic being that this makes it easier for the balancer to get into the auction when he does not have a hand suitable for a take-out Double. After that 10-14 1NT, South’s Double should surely show 18+ HCPs … after all, she is opposite a Partner who could not even respond to 1♣, so she needs a really good hand to make such a power move.
In the defense to 2♠, East will probably lead a Diamond, if only by default (the alternatives are unappealing), and that will set up a 5th defensive trick.
On the previous board we discussed how the range for a 1NT overcall is lowered when in the balancing seat. Here, opposite an overcaller, the reverse applies, we need more to bid 1NT. If Partner opens 1♣ or 1♦ we typically need 6-10 to respond 1NT … but when Partner has merely overcalled, our bid of 1NT should be somewhat stronger, let’s say 8-11 or thereabouts. South’s jump to 3♥ was cognizant of this fact, and 3NT was easily reached.
Declarer has 9 top tricks, with little hope for more (other than from a charitable lead).
Each side has half the points in this Spade-Diamond part-score battle, and in these situations it’s usually extra distribution or an extra trump which justifies taking one more call in the direct seat. Here, East had that Diamond shortness for his 3♠ bid. Needless to say, that 3♠ bid was not inviting game … if East had wanted to do that he would have tried 3♥, which says nothing about Hearts, it merely seeks Partner’s opinion about game.
As it happens, 4♠ can be made, but not on any realistic line of play ... to make 10 tricks Declarer must double-hook North's J9 of Clubs rather than play her for the Ace.
How does South fare in Diamonds? The defense has an easy route to 4 tricks, just by cashing 2 Spades and shifting to Clubs. Declarer has a third Spade loser in his hand, of course, but that can be ruffed in Dummy, so 9 tricks is routine on that defense. Do we hear some Wests out there saying "Third Spade ruffed in Dummy, my eye! I'm leading a trump on the go!" Yes, that will stop the ruff alright, but it will also allow the Hearts to be set up, and now no fewer than ten tricks will materialize for Declarer. Let's follow a possible line of play: - Diamond 2 led, won by Dummy's 6 - Low Heart to the Jack and King - Now West has no good defense, and 10 tricks are made. After that opening trump lead, and then the low Heart from the board, does East do better to pop up with the Q♥? No, Declarer will unblock the Jack and it's 10 tricks once again.
The auction is likely to be repeated around the room, but who can guess what all those Easts will be leading? A Heart will be the lead that makes Declarer the most nervous, but all roads lead to 9 tricks.
Against 2♥, North might well lead a Spade … J87 is not an appealing suit, but it is the unbid suit, and the other suits look even less appetizing. If a Spade is led, the defense can come to 5 tricks … Spade lead, won by South’s King, then a Diamond shift, and eventually a Diamond ruff. Holding 2♥ to 8 tricks should be a fine score for N-S.
System Note: Nowadays, many players play "Walsh-style". In this method, after a 1♣ opening, Responder will by-pass his Diamond suit in favor of a major suit unless he has a decent hand (the definition of "decent" varies from partnership to partnership, but typically at least invitational values, a hand that will take another call if Opener makes a minimum rebid). So, on this hand, Walshites would respond 1♥ thereby making East Declarer. Now holding Declarer to 8 tricks is more likely, it seems to us that South has a natural Diamond lead.
At her first turn, South was a whisker away (well, maybe two or three whiskers on second thoughts) from dredging up a 2♦ bid. In the balancing seat, North has a pretty good hand, and might have considered doubling, notwithstanding the poor Diamond holding. But we prefer that 1♠ bid, it's more descriptive, and North can always come back in later with a Double to show those extra values. Indeed, that's exactly what happens next time around ... North doubles and South finally gets to bid her Diamonds.
In Diamonds, a lucky 11 tricks materialize, but game is probably no better that 30% to succeed. Not one that needs to be bid. Come to that, the 4-3 Spade fit is also worth 11 lucky tricks.
N-S can beat 3♦ but only with the right opening lead and perfect defense. South must lead a Spade, which Declarer must duck to give himself a chance. North wins the Q♠, and underleads the A♣ to get back to Partner’s hand for another Spade lead. Any other defense is inadequate to beat 3♦. To see what happens if South makes the opening lead of the K♣, and then shifts to a Spade at Trick 2, please see the Play Problem.
No doubt N-S could have done more in the auction, selling out to 3♦ was not a very strong bidding effort at all. Who bungled the N-S auction? Please see the Bidding Quiz.
In the featured auction, E-W were playing that, opposite a simple overcall, a new suit was constructive, but not forcing. So, North had to jump to 3♣ to create a force.
In the final contract of 3NT, it’s hard to imagine how anything other than 10 tricks will result.
What a difficult bidding problem East has here! Decent values, but no convenient bid. The choices seem to be Pass (too feeble), 3♣ (too bold), or 3♦ (right on values, but a Diamond short). We’d opt for 3♦ ourselves, it looks like the best of a bad bunch.
The final contract is likely to be 3NT by West, and that will be down one on a Spade lead.
That 2♥ bid by South was pretty minimum, but reasonable, thanks to the 6th Heart.
However, it’s quite likely that the final contract will be 3♠, played by East, and, in the play of the hand there is a trap for the unwary. Let’s say that the defense gets two Hearts on the go, and then North shifts to a Spade, won by South’s King, then a Spade continuation. Now, the hand hinges on the Club situation, and Declarer needs two entries to the board to pick up North’s KJx. Yes, Declarer must carefully unblock the 8♠ on the first round of the suit … this gives him that second entry to the board via the Spade Six.
It’s true that South can make 10 tricks in Hearts, but that is a lucky game indeed.
It’s not 100% obvious that North is worth a game-try here, that singleton K♠ would surely be better employed in a long suit. But, if you take the rosy view (as North), what are your game-try methods? There are all sorts of exotic variations out there … help-suit, short suit, two-way, three-way, take your pick. Then again, there’s something to be said for simplicity … North’s game try in the featured auction was utterly unsophisticated … she was just bidding what she had, an admirable, and oh so simple, method.
In 4♥ it matters not whether East gives his partner a ruff on the go … either way, 10 tricks will materialize.
After a Jacoby Transfer, do you play “Super-Accepts”? Using this method, the 1NT bidder is allowed to go beyond 2 of Partner’s major when she has 4 cards in the suit. It’s a worthwhile treatment, and can help you get to games which otherwise might be missed. Furthermore, there is the preemptive value of getting to the 3-level quickly when you have a 9-card fit. But, let’s not overdo it! Yes, that South hand has 4 trumps, but it’s not worth a super-accept in our view … square distribution, minimum values, no Tens. Our recommendation is to super-accept only when your hand has some character, and this one certainly does not. Note that, on this particular hand, the super-accept would condemn N-S to a minus score.
E-W have half of the deck, and here they are defending against a 9-card fit at the 2-level. Should they have gotten into the fray? Yes! But it’s not the guy with the 15 HCPs who should be getting involved. No, if E-W are to get into this auction, it must be East, with his yucky 6-count, who does the deed … he’s the guy in the balancing seat, and he’s the guy with the shortness in their suit. Yes, balancing here with a Double is the winner, and it may allow E-W to go plus on the board. And, non-vulnerable, we think that it’s the right call … but only if Partner subsequently shows some restraint, and takes the Double for what it is, namely a purely competitive effort.
If East does find the balancing Double, West is probably best advised to bid 2♠, at least that has the benefit of being one level lower than 3 of a minor. 2♠ will scramble home, but no doubt South will compete to 3♥ for down one.
North’s vulnerable light opening of 1♣ in 3rd seat was not without its risks, but, when the lightness is not too extreme, why not get that lovely suit into the auction? Of course, North was praying for a response of 1♦ or 1♥, either of which she could pass, but Partner had to bid 1♠, of course, and the auction proceeded all the way to 3♣.
On inaccurate defense, 3♣ might even make, but down one is more likely. This should be a decent result for N-S, as their opponents can make 3♦ (or 2 of a major). But, N-S were certainly flirting with disaster on this one!
This is turning out to be the set of difficult part-score decisions, and here is another one. Should West have competed with 3♦ over 3♣. Please see the Bidding Quiz.
We encountered the 1NT response to Partner’s overcall back on Board 4, and here it is again. This time, the 1NT bidder is minimum, and South comes to rest in 3♠.
Against 3♠, West will likely lead a Diamond, and now the best line of play seems to be to cash the two top Diamonds, pitching two Hearts, and then taking a successful Club finesse. With this line of play, Declarer is budgeting for a Spade loser, 2 Heart losers, and a Club loser. Alas for Declarer, she has a choice of Club finesses, and it seems to make sense to play the opening bidder for the K♣ … so, Declarer finesses the Q♣ and goes down one for playing the hand “correctly” … bridge is not always a fair game!
Opposite a 15-17 1NT opening, we usually just charge into game with a decent 9-count … this particular 9-count is not so impressive, so we think that the featured auction is just fine.
Against 4♠, South will no doubt lead the J♣, won by Declarer’s Ace. Declarer is somewhat short of entries to the board, so probably does best to play on the red suits early. So, he leads a low Heart at Trick Two, and South pops the King, and continues with Clubs, to Declarer’s Ace. Now, A♥, Spade to the Ace, Q♥ pitching a Club, and a Diamond towards the KJT. This well-timed sequence of plays brings in 11 tricks.
A difficult deal for N-S, and, in the featured auction, they did well to stop in 4♣. In the play, the defense will lead Spades at every opportunity, and, after the losing Club finesse, Declarer will eventually lose control and be held to 9 tricks. Double dummy, 11 tricks can be made by dropping the singleton K♣, cashing the red tricks in the right order, and forcing East to under-ruff the last three tricks … not a real-life line of play.
Over West’s bold vulnerable 3♠ preempt, North has 18 HCPs, but no convenient bid. She might wonder what Partner has for her Pass of East’s 1♠ overcall … South appears to have just one Spade, and yet was unable to make a Negative Double, and unable to raise Clubs … all the signs are that South has a really crummy hand, and the smart bid by North is Pass … tough to do with such a good hand, but surely correct. Pass is indeed the winning call, enabling N-S to go plus on the board.
We confidently expect some dissenting opinions on this one! Many players we know would tough it out with a 3NT bid here, and some of the time that bid would no doubt be the winner.
Against 3NT, East will dutifully lead a Spade, and, without the aid of Hand Records, Declarer will make 10 tricks. She should go after Hearts, not Diamonds, as the hand with the long Hearts is also the hand with the entries.
After a routine auction, South leads a Diamond against 3NT. Think that you can now make an astonishing total of 11 tricks? If so, then absolutely no need whatsoever for you to waste your time checking out the Play Problem.
Against 2♠, East will no doubt lead the K♥. It’s often a good idea to establish one’s side-suit early in the play, and this hand is another example of that, even though going after the Diamonds runs the risk of an adverse ruff. Declarer wins the opening lead with the A♥, and plays a Diamond immediately. West plays low, of course, and Declarer wins the Queen, and continues the suit. West can win the Ace and give Partner a Diamond ruff, but the defense is now held to just 3 tricks, because the K♠ can now be picked up.
If you are thinking that the 3♠ bid on a 6-card suit is somewhat "out there", you may be right, but please see the Bidding Quiz.
In this low-level auction it would be pretty feeble of West, with his 9-count, to pass out 2♦ in the balancing seat. He has to squeak out something and our own guess would be 2♠. It’s hard to see how Double would help, and 2NT seems something of an overbid.
The play to 2♠ is quite friendly, and 8 tricks are made.
North may well lead a Spade against 4♥, if only for lack of a decent alternative. But, in reality, whatever the lead, West is destined to make 12 tricks with careful timing. Measure your own CTQ (Careful Timing Quotient) by following our problem link.
No, we don’t believe that West’s moldy 12-count is worth a vulnerable 2♥ bid over 1♠. But some might disagree, and they must feel free to play Russian Roulette, if that is their style.
Without a 2♥ intervention, 2♠ is likely to be the final contract. West will likely lead a Heart, and the obvious line of play, and almost the best line, is to take the Heart ruff on the board, cash A♠, get back to hand eventually, and guess the Spade suit correctly, in this case by leading the Queen and squashing the Jack. However, we did say almost … proper technique is to lose a Club at Trick Two, before taking the Heart ruff … this is the so-called Scissors Coup, cutting communications between the defenders and protecting against a possible trump promotion later in the hand (imagine a lay-out where West starts with 3 Hearts and Jx of Spades).
However, suppose that West does indeed perpetrate a ... er, we mean suppose that West overcalls South's 1♠ with 2♥ ... who could now blame East for competing to 3♥? E-W could be going for 800 here (a sporting Double and two Club ruffs on double dummy defense), but -200 (not doubled, and just one Club ruff) will be almost as big a zero.
After 3♦, West had a tough choice between 3♥ and 3NT, we wouldn’t fault either. South will lead a Club, and Declarer has a double-dummy line to 12 tricks … win the Club, A♦, K♦, ruff a Diamond, Heart finesse, draw trumps, lead a Spade … now North is out of red cards, and must provide Declarer with an entry to Dummy, and 12 tricks in all. In real life, the defense is destined to get 2 or 3 tricks … Declarer will win the opening lead, lose a Spade, suffer a Club ruff, and will now make 11 tricks if he guesses the Hearts correctly, 10 tricks otherwise.
West leads the A♣, and shifts to a Diamond. Declarer ruffs the third round of Diamonds, draws two rounds of trumps, and plays A♥, K♥, gleefully noting the fall of the QT♥. Now, Declarer leads the 9♥, and must guess to run it around if West plays low … because of the Principle of Restricted Choice, the odds very much favor the ruffing finesse over playing for 3-3 Hearts. This results in 9 tricks for Declarer.
Over 1NT, East has some choices: (a) Pass and see what happens … we don’t like this one at all, altogether too feeble. (b) A penalty double (if one is available in the partnership methods) … not a great idea, East has no obvious lead, and it’s easy to see how Declarer might have a couple of Club stops, 4 or 5 Diamond tricks, and who knows what else. (c) Show a two-suiter in Clubs and Spades (if possible) … again, not a good idea, there is too great a disparity between the two suits. (d) Bid Clubs … yes, of course!
Yes, the simple and obvious is best here … East bids the Club suit, and, if he gets a second chance later in the auction, he can throw in a 2♠ bid to complete the description of his hand. The end-result will be a Club part-score, making 11 tricks and +150. Any E-W pair that actually bid the Club game after the opponents have opened a strong No Trump will have done very well indeed. Miraculously well, even!
E-W are vulnerable, so it’s understandable why West, with an ugly 4-count, would be reluctant to enter the fray at his first turn. But, when 1NT gets passed around to him, he cannot sit idly by when his side has a 9-card fit … so 2♦ is certainly called for here. This prompts South to come back in with 3♣, a contract which makes on the nose.
13 tricks are available in Spades, thanks to the breaking trumps and minor suit finesses. Clearly, 7♠ is not a realistic contract, and even 6♠ is somewhat against the odds, weighing in at around a 45% chance of making. So, no need to agonize too much if you missed this one.
We would put this one into the “too complicated to analyze completely without going nuts” category. But we will say that, in the featured auction, N-S did well to stay out of game, even just making 8 tricks on this deal will be an achievement.
East’s 3♣ was preemptive, a so-called “Inverted Raise”, showing a weak hand, no 4-card major, and at least 5 Clubs. After South’s Double, North did well to go to game, and 10 easy tricks is her reward. +420 will be a good board for N-S, we predict that about half of the field will not reach game. © BES, Inc All Rights Reserved | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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