|
Hand Analyses 19th July, 2006
Quite a wild board to start with! North has a reasonable opening bid, with 10 HCPs, nice 5-5 shape, and no dubious values … another typical Rule of Twenty opener. East’s 3♠ bid is not ideal, with a moderate suit (but good fillers), an outside Ace and a void. Nonetheless, we like the bid, East's hand calls for action of some sort. But we don't much care for that 4♥ bid by South, altogether too much of her hand is in Spades, she'd be better off, in our view, passing and hoping that Partner can find a re-opening Double.
In 4♥ doubled, East leads the Spade Two (yes, really!), ruffed by West, who will cash one Diamond, and shift to a Club. East wins the Ace, gives Partner another Spade ruff, and gets out with a high Diamond, ruffed by Declarer. Now, K♥ by declarer, ducked by West. After this excellent defense by E-W, they score 6 tricks and +500 for a well-deserved top. Note how E-W had to do everything exactly right to get their +500: (a) That opening lead of the Spade Two was intended to send a message to Partner … it clearly couldn’t be a normal lead … the oddness of the lead should act as a wake-up call to Partner, and the obvious message was a suit preference signal, for the lowest suit, Clubs ... it's the so-called Alarm Clock Lead. (b) After cashing one Diamond, West could not play another high Diamond, he needed that as an exit card later on … so he shifted to a Club, confident that Partner had the Ace; (c) After getting his second Spade ruff, West was now able to exit with that second high Diamond; (d) And, then, when North played the K♥, it was essential for West to duck, otherwise he would have been end-played, and would not score his J♥.
And, yes, E-W needed all of those tricks, as they are cold for 5♦ or 3NT.
Back to the bidding. What would happen if South passes 3♠? West would have a strange bidding problem, to be sure! 3NT? Unlikely to work, even if Partner has the A♠ he'll still need an entry in Diamonds, and there's still the danger of them running Clubs first ... of course, Partner might have the A♣, but that's somewhat against the odds. How about 5♦? No, another long-shot, altogether too many Heart losers to take care of. Looking just at the West hand, the percentage call is surely Pass ... but, as it happens, Partner has the magic card, that A♣ means that 3NT is cold, and those 3 Diamonds mean that even 5♦ makes. So, this time, East's preempt inconveniences Partner, not the opponents.
The East hand has 17 HCPs, but we would rate it as too good for a 1NT opening. The 5-card suit and those two useful-looking Tens make the hand worth upgrading. So, East opens 1♣, planning to rebid 2NT.
Although we like the featured auction, we don’t much care for the final result. North leads the J♠, and the third round of Spades promotes a trump trick for the defense. Down one.
Are things better if East does open 1NT? Maybe, maybe not. South might still bid 2♠, now West can use a Texas 4♦ bid, and 4♥ will be played from the East side of the table. A red suit lead will still beat 4♥, but suppose that South leads a Club (quite a dangerous lead into the 1NT hand!). Now, Declarer wins the Ace, crosses to the A♥, runs the Q♣. Whether or not South covers, Declarer will be able to dispose of all his Spades, eventually making 11 tricks. Any E-W pair who manage to stay out of the game will score well, and those who actually make the game will get a top board.
In the face of the N-S preempt, East was forced to introduce his 5-card suit at the 3-level, not that he had much choice … he could hardly pass, and Double was not an option with only 2 Spades.
The final result will be 10 or 11 tricks and everything will depend on the opening lead. If South finds the Spade lead (we don’t see why she should), Declarer is held to 10 tricks, but a red suit lead will result in 11 tricks. To be honest, A♦ or T♥ or 6♠ all seem like reasonable (but equally unappealing) leads to us, the Spade lead just happens to be the one that works.
East might have started with 4♥, but, even opposite a passed hand, he’s really too good for that, slam is still a possibility. So his real choices are 1♥ or 2♣. Much as we avoid 2♣ openings when we are minor-oriented, when it comes to the majors we very much lean in the other direction. Why? Simply because major suit 2♣ auctions are quite efficient … what is there not to like about an auction that starts 2♣ 2♦, 2♥? However, South’s 3♣ gets in the way of that auction. After South’s 3♣, West’s Pass indicated some values … with a truly rotten hand, he would have doubled 3♣, regardless of his holding in their suit.
The play is instructive, and we have a link to this deal in Problem format.
East quite reasonably opened a shapely 11-count, West had 13 HCPs and took things to 3NT, a contract with no play which goes down two. Clearly E-W overbid this one, who was the culprit? We've all been taught that "an opening bid opposite an opening bid equals game". But there's a catch! They invented that saying before players started opening so light. We like the Rule of 20 as a general guideline on when to open, and have no problem with East's opening bid ... but, if you are going to open that kind of hand, then Responder needs a little bit extra to insist on game. Here, Responder did not have anything extra ... a goodly number of points, yes, but square shape, 3 Queens, and no fillers ... in fact, on a Rule of 20 basis, West also had minimum opening values. So, if your partnership style is to open the East hand, then West should just invite to 2NT with the West hand ... not because it is only 13 HCP's, but because it is a truly awful 13 HCP's.
Another 2♣ auction with interference, although one wonders what West was trying to achieve with that 2♦ bid at this vulnerability. This time Responder doubles to show a bad hand (she certainly got that right!). The final contract is not pretty, but Declarer makes a surprising number of tricks, thanks to the favorable Heart situation, which not only yields an extra Heart trick, but also an entry to the board. 9 tricks can be made double dummy, but a more common result will be 8 tricks, we suspect ... for example, Diamond to the King, AK♥, Heart to the Ten, Club finesse, AK♣, and eventually a Spade will be the 8th trick.
Lots of questionable actions in this auction! Such as: (a) Anyone for that 1♥ opener with the West hand? We rather like it, if you ever have to lie about your “5-card major” in second seat, this is the hand for it … pathetic 3-card minor suits and a spectacular 4-card Heart suit. (b) Perhaps North should double 1♥, though with 3 small Spades, that's not perfect either. (c) East’s preemptive 3♥ is certainly aggressive, considering the vulnerability. (d) North’s Double is something of a stretch, especially considering the feeble Spades. No doubt, at this point in the proceedings, North was wishing she had doubled originally. (e) And then there is South’s 3NT, justified by the lack of good alternatives.
After all that dubious bidding, the resulting contract was surprisingly good! 3NT makes on the nose. We doubt that the featured auction will occur very often (if at all!), and a minor suit part-score by N-S, for +130, will be a common result. Any N-S pair that plays it in No Trump (whether in game or not) will score well.
N-S can hold Declarer to 7 tricks, but it requires good defense. South will lead a Diamond, won by North’s Queen. Now, if North does not shift to a low Spade immediately, Declarer can manage an 8th trick. If North does find this fine shift, the defense will come to 3 Spades and a trick in each of the other suits. On the shift to a low Spade, Declarer does best to duck one round, and then, after winning the second round of Spades, she should try the Clubs … when they don’t break, it’ll be just 7 tricks. If North shifts, instead, to the K♠, Declarer can win the A♠ immediately, and now the defense cannot untangle its winners, and Declarer will manage 8 tricks.
“Hang on!”, we hear you say, “Declarer can do better than that! After the low Spade shift at trick two, and winning the A♠ at trick three, Declarer can cross to the Q♣, and then duck a Club to South’s Ten!”. Well, yes, that would be a fine double-dummy play, when you know that the Clubs are not breaking, and that the A♥ is in the hand without the good Spades. Anyway, if East can be so smart then so can North! All she has to do to thwart the Ducking Plan is to hop up with the J♣ on the second round of the suit! Yes, the Crocodile Coup in action! Such an easy game when you can see all 4 hands.
With North's 4-5-3-1 shape we prefer Double to 1♥ ... if we overcall 1♥ our hand is not good enough to introduce Spades later at the two-level. But make it 5-4-3-1 and 1♠ is preferable ... the rationale here is that we don't need extra values to introduce Hearts at the two-level. West’s 1NT shows 18-19 opposite a silent Partner … and, if East had bid over that Double, West’s 1NT would, of course, be 12-14. East must have been sorely tempted to try 3♣ when 2♠ came back around to him, and he avoided -500 (down two doubled) by being timid.
It looks as if N-S might make 9 tricks in 2♠, with all the cards so well placed … but the 4-1 trump break is hard to overcome, and the 9th trick will prove elusive.
Back to the bidding. Over 1♣, with that North hand, we rather like a Michaels Cue-Bid. True, it's not the perfect 5-5 shape, but the favorable vulnerability is more than adequate compensation. Using Michaels puts West on the spot ... now, when South bids 2♠, West has to come back in a level higher than the original auction ... West will no doubt double to show a good hand, and now E-W is in trouble, destined to score -500 in 3♣ doubled.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
