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Hand Analyses 19th July, 2006
Quite a wild board to start with! North has a reasonable opening bid, with 10 HCPs, nice 5-5 shape, and no dubious values … another typical Rule of Twenty opener. East’s 3♠ bid is not ideal, with a moderate suit (but good fillers), an outside Ace and a void. Nonetheless, we like the bid, East's hand calls for action of some sort. But we don't much care for that 4♥ bid by South, altogether too much of her hand is in Spades, she'd be better off, in our view, passing and hoping that Partner can find a re-opening Double.
In 4♥ doubled, East leads the Spade Two (yes, really!), ruffed by West, who will cash one Diamond, and shift to a Club. East wins the Ace, gives Partner another Spade ruff, and gets out with a high Diamond, ruffed by Declarer. Now, K♥ by declarer, ducked by West. After this excellent defense by E-W, they score 6 tricks and +500 for a well-deserved top. Note how E-W had to do everything exactly right to get their +500: (a) That opening lead of the Spade Two was intended to send a message to Partner … it clearly couldn’t be a normal lead … the oddness of the lead should act as a wake-up call to Partner, and the obvious message was a suit preference signal, for the lowest suit, Clubs ... it's the so-called Alarm Clock Lead. (b) After cashing one Diamond, West could not play another high Diamond, he needed that as an exit card later on … so he shifted to a Club, confident that Partner had the Ace; (c) After getting his second Spade ruff, West was now able to exit with that second high Diamond; (d) And, then, when North played the K♥, it was essential for West to duck, otherwise he would have been end-played, and would not score his J♥.
And, yes, E-W needed all of those tricks, as they are cold for 5♦ or 3NT.
Back to the bidding. What would happen if South passes 3♠? West would have a strange bidding problem, to be sure! 3NT? Unlikely to work, even if Partner has the A♠ he'll still need an entry in Diamonds, and there's still the danger of them running Clubs first ... of course, Partner might have the A♣, but that's somewhat against the odds. How about 5♦? No, another long-shot, altogether too many Heart losers to take care of. Looking just at the West hand, the percentage call is surely Pass ... but, as it happens, Partner has the magic card, that A♣ means that 3NT is cold, and those 3 Diamonds mean that even 5♦ makes. So, this time, East's preempt inconveniences Partner, not the opponents.
The East hand has 17 HCPs, but we would rate it as too good for a 1NT opening. The 5-card suit and those two useful-looking Tens make the hand worth upgrading. So, East opens 1♣, planning to rebid 2NT.
Although we like the featured auction, we don’t much care for the final result. North leads the J♠, and the third round of Spades promotes a trump trick for the defense. Down one.
Are things better if East does open 1NT? Maybe, maybe not. South might still bid 2♠, now West can use a Texas 4♦ bid, and 4♥ will be played from the East side of the table. A red suit lead will still beat 4♥, but suppose that South leads a Club (quite a dangerous lead into the 1NT hand!). Now, Declarer wins the Ace, crosses to the A♥, runs the Q♣. Whether or not South covers, Declarer will be able to dispose of all his Spades, eventually making 11 tricks. Any E-W pair who manage to stay out of the game will score well, and those who actually make the game will get a top board.
In the face of the N-S preempt, East was forced to introduce his 5-card suit at the 3-level, not that he had much choice … he could hardly pass, and Double was not an option with only 2 Spades.
The final result will be 10 or 11 tricks and everything will depend on the opening lead. If South finds the Spade lead (we don’t see why she should), Declarer is held to 10 tricks, but a red suit lead will result in 11 tricks. To be honest, A♦ or T♥ or 6♠ all seem like reasonable (but equally unappealing) leads to us, the Spade lead just happens to be the one that works.
East might have started with 4♥, but, even opposite a passed hand, he’s really too good for that, slam is still a possibility. So his real choices are 1♥ or 2♣. Much as we avoid 2♣ openings when we are minor-oriented, when it comes to the majors we very much lean in the other direction. Why? Simply because major suit 2♣ auctions are quite efficient … what is there not to like about an auction that starts 2♣ 2♦, 2♥? However, South’s 3♣ gets in the way of that auction. After South’s 3♣, West’s Pass indicated some values … with a truly rotten hand, he would have doubled 3♣, regardless of his holding in their suit.
The play is instructive, and we have a link to this deal in Problem format.
East quite reasonably opened a shapely 11-count, West had 13 HCPs and took things to 3NT, a contract with no play which goes down two. Clearly E-W overbid this one, who was the culprit? We've all been taught that "an opening bid opposite an opening bid equals game". But there's a catch! They invented that saying before players started opening so light. We like the Rule of 20 as a general guideline on when to open, and have no problem with East's opening bid ... but, if you are going to open that kind of hand, then Responder needs a little bit extra to insist on game. Here, Responder did not have anything extra ... a goodly number of points, yes, but square shape, 3 Queens, and no fillers ... in fact, on a Rule of 20 basis, West also had minimum opening values. So, if your partnership style is to open the East hand, then West should just invite to 2NT with the West hand ... not because it is only 13 HCP's, but because it is a truly awful 13 HCP's.
Another 2♣ auction with interference, although one wonders what West was trying to achieve with that 2♦ bid at this vulnerability. This time Responder doubles to show a bad hand (she certainly got that right!). The final contract is not pretty, but Declarer makes a surprising number of tricks, thanks to the favorable Heart situation, which not only yields an extra Heart trick, but also an entry to the board. 9 tricks can be made double dummy, but a more common result will be 8 tricks, we suspect ... for example, Diamond to the King, AK♥, Heart to the Ten, Club finesse, AK♣, and eventually a Spade will be the 8th trick.
Lots of questionable actions in this auction! Such as: (a) Anyone for that 1♥ opener with the West hand? We rather like it, if you ever have to lie about your “5-card major” in second seat, this is the hand for it … pathetic 3-card minor suits and a spectacular 4-card Heart suit. (b) Perhaps North should double 1♥, though with 3 small Spades, that's not perfect either. (c) East’s preemptive 3♥ is certainly aggressive, considering the vulnerability. (d) North’s Double is something of a stretch, especially considering the feeble Spades. No doubt, at this point in the proceedings, North was wishing she had doubled originally. (e) And then there is South’s 3NT, justified by the lack of good alternatives.
After all that dubious bidding, the resulting contract was surprisingly good! 3NT makes on the nose. We doubt that the featured auction will occur very often (if at all!), and a minor suit part-score by N-S, for +130, will be a common result. Any N-S pair that plays it in No Trump (whether in game or not) will score well.
N-S can hold Declarer to 7 tricks, but it requires good defense. South will lead a Diamond, won by North’s Queen. Now, if North does not shift to a low Spade immediately, Declarer can manage an 8th trick. If North does find this fine shift, the defense will come to 3 Spades and a trick in each of the other suits. On the shift to a low Spade, Declarer does best to duck one round, and then, after winning the second round of Spades, she should try the Clubs … when they don’t break, it’ll be just 7 tricks. If North shifts, instead, to the K♠, Declarer can win the A♠ immediately, and now the defense cannot untangle its winners, and Declarer will manage 8 tricks.
“Hang on!”, we hear you say, “Declarer can do better than that! After the low Spade shift at trick two, and winning the A♠ at trick three, Declarer can cross to the Q♣, and then duck a Club to South’s Ten!”. Well, yes, that would be a fine double-dummy play, when you know that the Clubs are not breaking, and that the A♥ is in the hand without the good Spades. Anyway, if East can be so smart then so can North! All she has to do to thwart the Ducking Plan is to hop up with the J♣ on the second round of the suit! Yes, the Crocodile Coup in action! Such an easy game when you can see all 4 hands.
With North's 4-5-3-1 shape we prefer Double to 1♥ ... if we overcall 1♥ our hand is not good enough to introduce Spades later at the two-level. But make it 5-4-3-1 and 1♠ is preferable ... the rationale here is that we don't need extra values to introduce Hearts at the two-level. West’s 1NT shows 18-19 opposite a silent Partner … and, if East had bid over that Double, West’s 1NT would, of course, be 12-14. East must have been sorely tempted to try 3♣ when 2♠ came back around to him, and he avoided -500 (down two doubled) by being timid.
It looks as if N-S might make 9 tricks in 2♠, with all the cards so well placed … but the 4-1 trump break is hard to overcome, and the 9th trick will prove elusive.
Back to the bidding. Over 1♣, with that North hand, we rather like a Michaels Cue-Bid. True, it's not the perfect 5-5 shape, but the favorable vulnerability is more than adequate compensation. Using Michaels puts West on the spot ... now, when South bids 2♠, West has to come back in a level higher than the original auction ... West will no doubt double to show a good hand, and now E-W is in trouble, destined to score -500 in 3♣ doubled.
West's 3♦ was preemptive, of course, and even though East has a big hand, there's no likely game on the horizon. 3NT is optimistic ... there is the Club situation (true, South might underlead his Ace) ... and if South does not lead a Club there's likely to be only 8 tricks (West will more usually have only 5 Diamonds). How about 5♦? Also optimistic, West would need a real perfecto.
The play in 3♦ is straightforward, resulting in 10 tricks and +130.
After Partner’s 2♠, what should North do with that promising hand? When Partner preempts, we like hands with Aces and Kings, and that is exactly what North has. Then again, does she have enough? We think not. If North tries for game, she may well get her side too high … if Partner has a really crummy hand, we may go down in 3♠ … and if Partner has a decent (but not ideal) hand, we may go down in 4.
So, at matchpoints, we’d just pass 2♠. Once in a while, we’ll miss a game, but that will be more than outweighed by all the times we avoid going minus on the hand. And at teams? Yes, here the scoring rewards more aggressive game bidding, so we would invite to game on this hand (no doubt, via a 2NT sequence of some sort).
If North does choose to invite to game, Partner will accept, and the well-fitting hands make 4♠ a pretty good contract, requiring no more than an on-side A♥. Additionally, there is scope for defensive error. West will lead the A♦, which East should discourage ... he can see the danger of 10 black tricks for Declarer if she holds the Q♣, and would like a Heart shift. E-W have 4 red tricks, but they must get them on the go, or 4♥ will make.
What’s that 3♥ all about? After they have preempted, it’s a basic law of physics that we cannot preempt. So, North's jump to 3♥ shows values … basically, it says “Bid game if you think you have a trick for me”. As it happens South has all sorts of potential tricks, so she makes a slam try with 4♦. North is not impressed and just bids game, and South gives up.
As it happens, 4♥ is the limit, notwithstanding South’s abundance of good stuff, the hands just don’t fit well together.
That was a nice 3♥ by East, a slight stretch, but necessary if E-W are to find their cold game. We hear some rumblings from the advocates of the Law of Total Tricks. Why, they ask, did North not bid 3♠ over 2♥? After all, N-S have at least 9 Spades, that is supposed to provide safety at the 3-level. Well, on this deal, yes, it does turn out to be safe, but, even so, we consider 3♠ (over 2♥) to be way over the top. Look at all those losers and that square shape! The major danger in going to the three-level on vulnerable hands like this is not the danger of getting doubled for a number, it's going down two undoubled, for -200 on a part-score hand.
And, if North should make the nutty, er, we mean the Total Tricks based 3♠ bid? We think that East might dredge up (and we use the term advisedly) 4♥, the hand is improved quite considerably by that 3♠ bid. But some mea culpas might be appropriate if Partner goes down in his contract. As it happens, 4♥ makes 10 tricks, and it will be a great board for those that bid it.
Fine bidding by E-W in the featured auction! Over 2♣, East could have just blasted into 4♠ with that 10-card fit, but, he rightly cue-bid 3♣, showing a limit raise in Spades. West started with a 14-count, but that became a 12-count when Clubs were bid on his left … and, with most of the enemy strength on his left, that K♦ was not looking so great either. So, a good stop by E-W if they managed to stay out of game.
In fact, even 3♠ is not guaranteed, though, with normal play, it will make. North will cash 2 Clubs and shift to a Heart, which is ducked to South's King. At some point in the ensuing play, Declarer must divine the Diamond situation, and the bidding should persuade Declarer to play North for the A♦.
More fine bidding by E-W, at least in our opinion. We like that 2♠ bid, though some may think it lunatic … they’ve opened, it’s white versus red, we have 6 Spades, we have to bid! It’s that simple. This bold 2♠ bid gets E-W quickly to their 4♠ sacrifice, and a good board.
Yes, Deep Finesse says that N-S can make 12 or 13 tricks in various contracts, but slam is not realistic in real life, it requires altogether too many finesses and improbable guesses. Anyway, well done by E-W if they got to 4♠ in a hurry, and got doubled and went minus a mere 300.
What are your follow-up methods when your side overcalls? More specifically, in the above auction, is 2♣ forcing for one round? Many partnerships play it that way, but perhaps the more popular treatment nowadays is to play 2♣ here as "constructive but non-forcing" ... in other words, 2♣ shows some values, but with a not-so-great overcall North is allowed to pass. "Not-so-great" needs to be defined, though, and we'd say that, with something less than an opening bid, North may pass. If that was our method, we'd pass with the North hand ... true, it's a 5-4 11-count, but one with some wasted values.
This turns out to be a dangerous deal for N-S ... they have the majority of the points, but no fit, and there is lethal distribution at large. If N-S declares in Spades, the defense takes 8 tricks (A♥, Heart ruff, K♦, Heart ruff, A♦, Heart ruff … that’s 6 already, with the AJx of trumps worth two more). If N-S declares in Clubs, it's no better, also 8 tricks for the defense (A♦, K♦, A♥, Heart ruff, A♠, Spade ruff, Heart ruff … that’s 7 tricks, and now East rubs salt into the wounds by leading another Spade for a trump promotion!).
There could be some nasty -500 or -800 scores on the recap sheet, and we'd guess that getting out for -100 or -150 should be a good result for N-S.
Would you have redoubled with that West hand? The hand is strong enough, but it’s the wrong hand type, too much offense, not enough defense … better to get that 6-card Club suit into the auction. East must have been at least slightly tempted to bid 5♣, but the end-result is 4♥ doubled.
In practice, 4♥ goes down just one trick ... down two is possible, but the required defense is improbable (East must lead a Spade on the go in order to arrange for a Spade ruff for Partner).
How does 5♣ fare? If North leads a Spade (we think she should) then 5♣ will be touch and go. There is a Spade to be lost, also the A♣ … so Declarer must pick up the J♣ and the Q♦ to make 11 tricks. If North has been preempting in Hearts, Declarer should get them both right, but it will be a sweaty contract for a while.
A fairly common auction, we suspect, although the final contract is pretty gruesome. How will the play go? South will lead a Club, probably … leading from Jxxx is not particularly attractive, but Clubs are the unbid suit, and the other leads are not so attractive either. On the face of it, Declarer seems destined to lose a Diamond, two Hearts, and at least one Spade.
But the ugliest contracts are sometimes the most interesting ones to play, and this hand is most interesting indeed, so much so that it is presented as Problem # 41.
Here's a familiar opening bid problem for North. What should be her plan? The presumption is that South will bid Hearts ... if she bids anything else, North's rebid problem disappears. Here are North's options: A. Open 1♣, planning to rebid 2♣: That Club suit is not worth rebidding in our opinion. B. Open 1♣, planning a 2♦ reverse: No, this hand is not really good enough. C. Open 1♣, planning to rebid 1NT: No, it's altogether too good. D. Open 1♦, planning to rebid 2♣: We're not crazy about this one, either, it's somewhat contrived.
Not a particularly appetizing set of choices, is it? We usually like to stretch these hands into a reverse in these situations, but this one falls too far short in our opinion. We'd go for A or D, being equally unenthusiastic about both of them.
As it happens, South responds 1♠, and North raises to 2♠ ... yes, a bit on the heavy side, but with only 3 Spades it would not be appropriate to jump to 3♠. In the play, N-S makes 9 tricks in Spades (or 10 tricks on a line of play too bizarre to contemplate in real life).
A simple auction, but a tricky hand to play. West leads a Club, which is most inconvenient to Declarer, it knocks out Dummy’s entry before the Diamonds are established. Now, it looks as if Declarer must rely on the Q♦ coming down doubleton, and when that does not materialize she appears destined for defeat, perhaps even by two tricks. However, she has a surprising resource, please see Play Problem # 42. In case you are wondering, the surprising resource is the Five of Hearts.
For the second hand in a row, South opens 2NT. We confess that we would not invite slam with that North hand ... we have 10 opposite 20-21, and the benchmark total for 6NT with two balanced hands is usually considered to be 33 HCP's. True, we have a 5-card suit, but it's a lousy one. So, a 3NT bid in our book.
As luck would have it, the slam is reasonable ... Partner has the high-end of her bid and the perfect Diamond holding, and all the high cards in both hands are working. At first glance, it looks like slam just needs Diamonds to be 3-2 (a 68% chance) ... but there's a problem if West happens to find a Club lead, this gives Declarer serious communication problems. She must keep the A♣ on the board, as an entry to the Diamonds (she expects the A♦ to be held up for a couple of rounds), so she wins in her hand. Now, if the A♦ is held up to the third round, Declarer cannot untangle her black tricks, and will need a Heart finesse for the 12th trick. Complicated stuff, but the bottom line is that, on a Club lead, the slam needs more than Diamonds 3-2 … it also needs Ace doubleton of Diamonds or the Heart finesse.
Still, it’s a half-decent slam, and the friendly layout results in a near-top board for those that bid it.
East’s Double was take-out, and West converted this to a penalty Double, seeing that game was unlikely.
Against 2♥ doubled, East leads the A♠, and can tell from the carding that it is West who has the singleton. East leads the 4♠ (suit preference for Clubs), ruffed by West. A Club comes back, and North ruffs the third round of the suit. Next, Declarer tries a Heart the Jack and the Ace, and West shifts to Diamonds, the Ace taking the King. Now, a high Spade from East and Declarer’s goose is cooked. Down 3 and +500 for E-W.
But, will that be enough? Not if E-W can make a vulnerable game. Well, actually they can, although it’s extremely lucky. The doubleton on-side K♣ saves Declarer’s bacon in 3NT or 5♣.
East’s 3♦ bid? It’s a splinter, showing good Club support, and Diamond shortness. After the 3♦ bid, East can hardly stop short of slam, and after 3NT he just leaps majestically (as they say in the literature) to 6♣.
The slam will make whenever Clubs are 3-2 (provided that South does not have 5 Hearts to the Jack), but, on the actual hand, the 4-1 break will defeat the contract. 6♣ can be made on the lie of the cards, even with the 4-1 break, but the successful line of play is very much anti-percentage, as it gives up on other, more likely, distributions. So, good bidding by E-W, but an unlucky break for a bad board.
N-S will get to 3NT or 4♠, and neither of them are particularly good contracts.
On the lie of the cards, 4♠ goes down on a Diamond lead, but with North bidding Diamonds it seems more likely that East will lead a Heart. Now, with Spades 3-2, Declarer just needs some luck in Diamonds ... a 3-3 break would do it, and likewise the actual layout where the Nine comes down in two rounds. So +420 at most tables.
3NT is an especially poor contract, but the cards are miraculously friendly for Declarer. Both Hearts are onside, and the Spades break, and the J♣ is in the slot. A likely lead is a Heart to the Queen which Declarer wins. She leads the K♣, which sets up her 8th trick, and the defense has no way of getting 5 before Declarer gets 9. Even so, this will probably score badly, we'd expect most pairs to get to 4♠.
E-W belong in 7NT on this deal, at least in theory. In practice, this goes down in flames when the Diamonds don’t break. So, good slam bidding gets E-W another bad board, just as in Board 23.
Fortunately, it’s quite difficult to get to the doomed grand slam, but, for your amusement, we have contrived an auction replete with fancy gadgets and obscure agreements, especially designed to allow us to go minus on the board. As 2♦ is game-forcing, what does that later jump to 4♦ mean? You might well want to play this as Minorwood, setting Diamonds as trumps and asking for Key Cards. In response to 4♦, 4♠ showed 0 or 3 (1430 responses), and, for once, it is far from clear which Partner has. Catering for the zero case, West bids 4NT (which is to play if East has zero Key Cards). Having 3 Key Cards, East must bid again, and one method is to answer to the Queen Ask on the next bid. Thus, 5♦ denies the Q♦. Next, 5♥ is the King Ask, and 5♠ shows the K♠, of course. Now, it’s clear to bid 7NT, because, even if Partner is void in Diamonds, the Q♠ is an entry to the Diamonds (of course, they will need to split 2-2!). Terrific stuff, guys! Most impressive, indeed! Minus 100.
An uneventful hand. E-W should scrape up 8 tricks without too much trouble. In fact, if North does not get her Club ruff, Declarer has a chance for +140 and a top board by guessing the J♣ correctly.
Playing a 2/1 system, North has an awkward hand … decent values, and a good suit, but not enough to force to game. One method for this hand is to bid a Forcing 1NT, and then jump to 3♥ over the response. And another approach is to play 1♠ 3♥ as invitational. Either works fine.
The way the featured auction went, North never got the chance to show her Hearts (a good reason to play 3♥ invitational!), but, either way, 4♠ should be reached.
Against 4♠, West will no doubt lead the Q♣, to East’s Ace, and the K♦ will come back. It would be very much against the odds to draw trumps, and play West for Kx of Hearts, thereby making 12 tricks 9% of the time, 10 tricks 41% of the time, and going down 50% of the time. A saner line is to duck the first Diamond, planning for a ruff on the board for the 10th trick. In fact, if, after the Diamond duck, East does not smartly shift to a trump, Declarer will get two ruffs, for 11 easy tricks. After the trump shift, Declarer gets his lone Diamond ruff for 10 tricks, but, on the run of the trump suit and the K♣, West gets squeezed in the red suits! So, 11 tricks anyway.
Should East shift to a trump at trick two (instead of the K♦)? No! He can see the Hearts are running, and stopping the ruffs will force South into the winning Heart finesse … and if she draws trumps before taking that finesse, she’ll wind up with 12 tricks!
If you made 11 tricks on the squeeze, or via 2 Diamonds ruffs, then you can expect at least an average-plus for your efforts.
Yes, that 2♣ was the Drury convention, whereby the passed hand checks back to see if that 3rd seat opener is legitimate or not. As it is, East does have a real opener, but still not a hand which can envisage game opposite his passed hand Partner. So, he bids 2♥, which, in his partnership’s methods says “No interest in game” … the treatment shown is actually “Reverse” Drury.
2♥ makes 9 tricks if Declarer guesses to play North for QTxx. But that’s not a percentage line of play, and, normally, a trump trick will be lost. +110 should be worth average plus, we would think, no doubt some E-W will get too high on this hand ... a good hand for Drury, which manages to keep things low and safe.
We think that North is full value for her 3♠ rebid … only 13 HCPs, but what a lovely hand!
11 tricks are easy enough, and 12 tricks can be made with play too bizarre to contemplate seriously.
East reasonably decided that his hand was too good to open 1NT and planned a reverse sequence. After 2♦, West was rather stuck for an intelligent bid, so he marked time with 2♠. Eventually the excellent contract of 4♥ was reached.
Making 4♥ is a piece of cake, so no prizes for making 10 tricks here. But actually bidding 4♥ is definitely worth a prize, or at the very least a whole bunch of matchpoints. 5♣ (or even 5♦) will make, of course, but will not score as well as 4♥.
South's opening bid is pretty marginal, and 12 HCPs with a square hand is often a Pass in our view ... but this hand does at least have some working Tens and Nines, so 1♣ is not unreasonable. West was no doubt looking at the vulnerability when he charged in with 3♠ on an empty suit. When it got back to South, she was on something of a guess ... but just as the vulnerability induced West to make such a ragged preempt, so it is likely to persuade South to try for the 3NT game rather than for a penalty.
3NT makes an easy 10 tricks provided that Declarer guesses the Hearts correctly. On the assumption that East is more likely to have the length in Hearts, it seems more promising to lead towards the Q9x, planning to insert the Nine, which gives Declarer the chance to pick up the suit for one loser when East has KJxx. However, Declarer does not have sufficient entries to the board for this ... for example, imagining that East does indeed hold KJxx, the play might go: Spade to the Queen and Ace, Club to the Ace, Heart to the Nine, Diamond to the Jack and Ace, Diamond returned to the King, low Heart won by East's King, and now the suit is blocked with no other entry left. So, as she cannot successfully handle the KJxx situation, at Trick Two South might as well play a Heart to the Ace and a Heart back towards the Queen, making 10 tricks. If Declarer (not unreasonably) decides to play Hearts through West (hoping that he has at least one of the missing honors), she'll end up with just 9 tricks.
Just as East did back on Board 4, West has a big hand in Hearts ... again we'd open this one 2♣, even though it also is a tad below game-forcing strength. After West opens 2♣ and rebids 2♥, East is too good to jump directly to 4♥ ... we'd choose a splinter bid of 4♣ here, notwithstanding the shortage of HCP's.
That splinter will certainly slow down West, he has a somewhat minimum 2♣ opener, and loads of wasted values opposite Partner's shortness. It looks like 4♥ will be the final contract at most tables, with an easy 11 tricks, no more, no less.
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