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Hand Analyses 12th July, 2006
It's not much of a 2♣ overcall, but we’ve all seen worse. South's 2♥ shows a decent hand, it's forcing, but not game-forcing. Does South's 2♥ bid promise a rebid? We prefer not, and would say that, if North bids 2NT or 3♥ here, South is allowed to pass. Not that North has either of those in mind, the real question here is whether 3♦ is forcing. You'll get different opinions on this, so unless you are sure that your Partner will take this as forcing, a bid of 3♦ here would be highly dangerous. It's an awkward situation, covered in more detail in the Bidding Quiz.
Anyway, most auctions will lead to 3NT, and it could be played by North or by South. In either case, a Club lead will result in 12 easy tricks for Declarer. But, if West is on lead, he might lead the Q♥, at least it’s safe. This lead works much better for the defense, and now Declarer can count just 10 tricks. She'll duck a Heart, win the continuation (pitching a Club and a Spade from the board), and rattle off 7 Diamonds. East must come down to 4 cards, three of which must be Spades in order to protect that suit, and, of course, the A♣. Can Declarer be sure that East has not got two Spades, a Heart and a Club left? Not really, but if she reads the situation correctly, she'll lead a Club and make 11 tricks.
Anyone for 6♦? Declarer has 11 easy tricks, and a Club ruff on the board will bring the total up to 12. Well, yes, but an opening trump lead can stop the ruff on the board and, given the lack of attractive alternatives, that is a lead that East might well find. Does that mean that 6♦ cannot be made? No, we can think of at least 4 lines of play, not all them successful: (a) a finesse of the Ten of Clubs, not a promising play, considering the bidding; (b) the rather obscure "backward finesse", which involves running the Ten of Clubs (covered by the Jack and King), and then finessing the 8 on the way back (this long-shot play wins!). (c) Cleverly win the opening lead on the board with the 9♦, cash A♥ (pitching a Spade), ruff a Heart high, and run all of your Diamonds but one, East will come under pressure ... he must hang on to the Spades, lest they get ruffed out, and now Declarer can build a Club trick by force. (d) Or the obvious line, which is to win the 9♦ on the opening lead, cash A♥ (pitching a Spade), ruff a Heart high, cash a few trumps, but ultimately rely on ruffing a Spade and hoping they are 3-3 (using the K♣ as an entry to the the 13th Spade) ... East is quite likely to be 3-2-2-6 on the auction ... and anyway, we don't trust his K♥ play, he may also be 3-3-2-5! We'd choose this line of play and we'd be down one, hopefully you did better.
Bold bidding by West on this one! But not unreasonable … he can see 8 tricks if the Clubs will just be kind enough to run, and is praying for a major suit Ace from Partner. These 3NT games based on minor suit tricks rather than HCPs are occasionally down 3 or 4 tricks. But this time 3NT makes on the nose, scoring 7 Clubs and 2 Aces.
South had an awkward choice of rebid, between a rather heavy 3♥ and a contrived 3♦ jump shift, and we suppose we'd bid the latter, though without enthusiasm.
Most N-S pairs will end up in 3NT, and will do very well if they can escape for down one. Plenty of points, just not enough tricks when the Hearts misbehave.
That vulnerable 2♦ bid by North was on the frisky side, and it propels N-S to an optimistic 3NT. But even after a more disciplined Pass by North, it's quite possible that N-S will reach the same spot ... South will get into the auction, North may well invite with 2NT, and South is likely to accept.
That 3NT contract is not completely hopeless, but it is rather ambitious. A Spade is led, won by the Ace, then a Spade back won by Dummy's King. Declarer can maximize her chances by taking an immediate Heart finesse. When this wins, she plays on Diamonds, gets the bad news there, then takes another Heart finesse, gets more bad news when that suit also breaks 4-2, and ends up down 2, for the dreaded -200.
We'd be surprised if many N-S pairs manage to go plus on this board ... they can manage part-scores in Hearts, Diamonds, and Clubs, but these are all 7-card fits, and the lure of No Trump will likely prevail ... stopping in 2NT for -100 should surely score at least average.
After East's 1♠, West tries a Forcing No Trump, and then follows up with a jump to 3♥. What does this bid show? Exactly what West has … invitational values and a decent 6-card suit. South has the best hand at the table, at least in terms of HCPs, but she does well to hold her peace during the auction, she has nothing worth saying.
Against 3♥, North leads the K♦. Declarer's best plan is to go after a Diamond ruff on the board and then hope that he can hold his trump losers to just one. This works out just fine, and with both Hearts on-side it is impossible for Declarer to go wrong. Making 9 tricks.
It also makes 9 tricks in 3NT thanks to the friendly Hearts, but you only want to be in this contract 17% of the time ... the other 83% of the time it'll be down 2 or 3 tricks.
Not a particularly thrilling deal ... North has no reason to balance with 3 cards in their suit and such a mediocre hand, so many Easts will labor in 1♦.
In the play of 1♦, it's easy to see how Declarer can make 2 Spades, 2 Hearts, and a Club. His best chance of scoring a Diamond trick is not to play the suit at all. For example, Club lead won by North's Ace, Heart shift won by Declarer's Ace, lose a Spade, win the Heart return, cash the K♣ and two Spades, and lead the 13th Spade, pitching a Heart. Now, it is the defense that is obliged to break open the trump suit to stop the Heart ruff, so Declarer scores a natural trump trick, and wriggles out for down one.
With a 9-card Heart fit, West is prepared to compete to the 3-level. He could pass for the time being, then back in with 3♥ if North balances his side into the auction. That approach is wishful thinking, though, the opponents are unlikely to let it rest in 2♥, so we would apply pressure with an immediate 3♥ bid. This is purely obstructive, with a hand that has game aspirations we would bid 2♠.
E-W will likely play it in 3♥, and it turns out that the hands fit well ... that, plus the on-side K♥, means that they can actually make 10 tricks. We'd be surprised if many pairs bid this one, though.
Over 2♠, as South, would you pass in the hope of a balancing Double from Partner and a big juicy penalty? We certainly wouldn't, please see the Bidding Quiz for more on this. Our own preference is 2NT, and this bid will land South in a tricky 4♥ contract.
As Declarer, how would you tackle 4♥? Please see Play Problem # 34.
When Partner overcalls a Weak Two with 2NT, your follow-up is probably the same as your No Trump system. But which one? Your 1NT system, or your 2NT system? If they are the same, then of course you don't care ... but if they are different (regular Stayman over 1NT, and Puppet Stayman over 2NT, for example) then it's a good idea to clarify which one is in effect in this situation! We'd suggest the 2NT system, seems more intuitive somehow, but it probably doesn't matter too much either way, as long as you and Partner are on the same wavelength.
Big Juicy Penalty Note: Backing up to South's first bid, suppose that she passes, and that North does indeed balance with a Double (we would), and that N-S defend 2♠ doubled. Just how big and juicy is that penalty? Can the defense muster up the down three result that they need to compensate for their missed game? We think not, it looks as if East can scramble that vital 6th trick. For example, South leads a Heart won by Dummy's Ace, now ruff a Heart, lead a Diamond ... provided that Declarer leaves the trump suit alone, the defense will have to concede a 6th trick sooner or later. Not so juicy after all! Better to score up that 4♥ game!
A simple auction to the obvious 4♥ contract. Now, provided that South does not do something disastrous on opening lead (such as laying down the A♦), this contract is doomed for down one, thanks to all of those off-side minor suit honors. As a matter of fact, down one might be quite a reasonable board! Declarer must take care to set up a Diamond ruff (or a Club trick which will provide a Diamond pitch) early in the play, otherwise he will be down two. We predict at least average for escaping for down one.
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