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Hand Analyses 28th June, 2006
South’s sequence typically shows 22-24 HCPs (22-23 is also common … perhaps the narrower range is preferable). Then a Stayman auction leads to 4♥, after which West will no doubt lead the A♣. If West now shifts (to anything), Declarer will draw two rounds of trumps, and play on Diamonds, allowing the defense to take their trump winner at their convenience. That will be 11 tricks for Declarer.
But if West continues Clubs at Trick Two, things are not so simple for Declarer. Dummy is forced to ruff the second Club, and now the plan of running Diamonds may not work. Look what happens … ruff the Club at Trick Two, draw two rounds of trumps, now play the Diamonds … but, if the hand with the long trump has only one Diamond, he’ll ruff the second round of Diamonds, continue Clubs forcing Dummy to ruff, and now Dummy’s last entry has been used up before the Diamonds can be unblocked. As it happens, Diamonds are 2-2, so this line of play works for 11 tricks, which is a shame because it really does not deserve to. No, if South wants style points as well as 11 tricks, she should ruff the second round of Clubs, cross to the A♠, ruff another Club, cross to the A♠, ruff a Spade, and play trumps … 11 tricks even when Diamonds are 3-1.
With just 12 HCPs opposite a passed hand, West can see that the opponents are likely to be playing this one, so he is more inclined to make a lead-directional bid. And so he does here, bidding 1♥, notwithstanding the partnership’s 5-card major system. However, East never gets the chance to lead a Heart, instead he must toil in 1NT.
Against 1NT, South will likely lead a Spade, after which Declarer appears scheduled to go down one or two. But there is hope! Suppose that the defense takes its ♠AKJ, now what? At this point, the defense has 6 obvious tricks, and Declarer has 6 if he can guess the Q♦ … who will get the 13th trick? That will depend upon North’s shift after taking her Spade tricks. The winning shift is a Heart, but it won’t be obvious, and a Club shift may look more appealing … in that case, South wins the K♣, cashes the 13th Spade, but now Declarer can set up her Club trick before the defense sets up its Heart trick.
Against 1NT, East will probably lead a low Spade, which blows a trick immediately. Now, Declarer will play on Hearts and end up with 8 easy tricks. Nor are things better if East leads the J♠ … Declarer wins this in hand, and (after knocking out A♥) later leads the 9♠, skewering West’s doubleton Eight, scoring 4 Spade tricks (and 8 in total) more exotically. To hold Declarer to 7 tricks a minor suit is required … this does not look so appealing to West, so expect numerous +120 scores.
East has only 4 HCPs but it would surely be wrong to pass 1♦ holding just one card in the suit. After East’s 1♠, South must decide whether or not to risk a 2♥ bid. She does have 13 HCPs, but we would pass anyway, there are altogether too many minus factors here … no Heart fillers, no side-suit fillers, the singleton Q♣, these are all negatives. Need we go on? Oh, alright, we shall … there’s also the K♦ under the Diamond bidder, no Aces, and the issue of vulnerability. Yes, it’s safe to say that a 2♥ overcall is not without risks and flaws.
So, South passes 1♠, West raises to 2♠, and the focus shifts to Ms North. She had a perfect take-out Double of 1♠ earlier on, except that the opponents were thoughtless enough to open 1♦ instead. Now, second time around, with the opponents bidding and raising Spades, she can make a take-out Double, and should, in our view. True, the opponents’ strength is unlimited, but they have found their Spade fit, and if they have a game they’ll no doubt bid it. But if they don’t have game we’d like at least to get them up to the 3-level. North’s Double in this situation is sometimes called a “pre-balance”, and the classic shape is 1-4-4-4 (the Spade shortness explaining the absence of an earlier Double).
After the pre-balancing Double, South must decide between 3♥ and 4♥. In a team game we would bid 4♥ in a flash, but at matchpoints it’s far from obvious. Perhaps we are not keeping faith with our earlier Pass, but we would take a shot at 4♥ here anyway … after all, Partner’s pre-balance is forcing us to the 3-level vulnerable, so she must have something over there!
We predict that most N-S pairs will get to game one way or another. A possible defense is the Q♠ opening lead won by East’s Ace, followed by a Diamond shift, which leads to a later Diamond ruff for the defense, holding Declarer to 10 tricks. This won’t be found at all tables, so expect a mixture of 620’s and 650’s.
After North’s 2♣ raise, South is going to the 5-level regardless, and with the expectation of making. But, the opponents may well push on to 5♠, which they will no doubt play doubled. In that case, it’s likely that an opening Club lead from Partner will get ruffed. So it’s imperative to get Partner (if on lead against 5♠ doubled), to lead a Heart, lest Declarer is able to ruff that opening Club, draw trumps, and pitch some Heart losers on Diamonds. Yes, that 3♥ bid is lead-directional. Not that it matters on this hand, because the defense has the A♠ … so, even if North’s opening Club is ruffed, the defense still gets a second chance to grab its Heart tricks.
However, let’s not forget those lead-directors in competitive auctions, they can pay big dividends!
West’s 2NT is the Jacoby 2NT, showing 4-card support and game-going values. East’s 3♦ shows shortness, but see the Link for an alternative (dare we say better?) method. Shortness opposite West’s Ax is not great news, it would be better if West had more Diamonds for ruffing … as it is, we have a bunch of Spades that must be taken care of. After 3♦, West’s 3♥ was forcing, of course, encouraging a cue-bid from Partner. Now, East’s 4♣ showed something in Clubs (in this case, no doubt the Ace) and denied something in Spades (no doubt without the Ace). West makes one more try with 4♦ at which point East has nothing left to cue-bid, but he does have a couple of black Queens and an optimistic nature, so he tries 6♥.
A difficult auction to a reasonable slam. 11% of the time the slam will be off thanks to bad luck in the trump suit … of the other 89%, the slam will make whenever the J♣ comes down in three rounds, and, failing that, it’ll make whenever the J♠ can be guessed. All in all, it comes to about 62% … true, they might get a Spade ruff on the go, but that is more than counterbalanced by the chances of South’s opening lead giving Declarer his 12th trick.
Is there any way of ferreting out that J♠, any way of improving our chances of guessing right? None that we can see … South will lead the J♦, trumps will be drawn, Clubs cashed without the early drop of the J♣, and the last Club will be ruffed. At this point both defenders will have shown up with a total of 5 cards in Hearts plus Clubs, and there appears to be very little clue here. Happy guessing!
It’s easy to see how E-W might get shut out of the auction after North’s 1♣ opening … East has nothing to say, and West declines to introduce his less-than-magnificent Spade suit. Feeble bidding by E-W perhaps, considering that they have the majority of the HCPs … but the good news for E-W is that they are likely to beat that 1NT contract by at least two vulnerable tricks.
East should surely lead the T♣, overtaken by the Ace … Club return won by East’s King … Clubs then cleared … now, a Diamond to the Ace … then a Diamond to the Jack, Queen, King … Clubs cashed … followed by 3 Hearts for the defense. That will be down two and -200 for Declarer.
Anyone for a 1♦ opening bid by North? Well, some would prefer it to 1♣, it’s not a debate that we have strong feelings about. Our own choice is normally to open 1♣ with those 4-4 minor hands unless the Diamonds are somewhat better, but there are numerous other views on the subject. On the actual hand, a 1♦ opening by North might actually work out better … East may make a (somewhat crummy) 2♣ overcall, after which there will be no -200 for N-S.
The featured E-W auction worked out rather well, considering what might have happened … staying in 2♦ is worth +90 or +110, but there is the danger that East will bid more. In fact, he has two other ways by which he might push his side overboard: (a) East might open 1NT, claiming an extra HCP for that long Diamond suit … now Partner is likely to take this one to 3NT (via Stayman), but even bidding Stayman, then just 2NT, will still get E-W too high; (b) East might rebid 3♦, which will surely result in 3NT going down.
We actually like East’s (winning) plan as per the featured auction. Yes, it always helps to see all four hands before making these pronouncements, and we’ll freely admit that we might well have opened the hand 1NT … but, at matchpoints, we really don’t see the need to open 1♦ and rebid 3♦.
Suppose that East ends up declaring a Diamond part-score … can N-S hold Declarer to 8 tricks? Sure they can! Please see Defense Problem # 26.
After South’s opening 1♣, West was stuck for a bid: Dbl: Not a good idea with only 2 cards in an unbid major. Pass: Better than doubling, but with 17 HCP’s it would be nice to bid something. 1NT: Right on values, but no Club stop. 1♥: Yes, that would be our choice, a nice chunky 4-card overcall.
We don’t suppose that everyone will agree with a 1♥ bid here, but to us it seems like the best choice in an awkward situation.
Notwithstanding the above, 2♥ is an unhappy contract. North will lead the Q♣ and continue the suit. After the defense has cashed 3 rounds of Clubs, a switch to the A♦, then another Diamond to the King … now a 3rd Diamond puts the contract down two tricks … Declarer can ruff the Diamond with the Ten, but North will get in later with the K♥, and South can now overruff Dummy on the 4th round of Diamonds.
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