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Hand Analyses 28th June, 2006
South’s sequence typically shows 22-24 HCPs (22-23 is also common … perhaps the narrower range is preferable). Then a Stayman auction leads to 4♥, after which West will no doubt lead the A♣. If West now shifts (to anything), Declarer will draw two rounds of trumps, and play on Diamonds, allowing the defense to take their trump winner at their convenience. That will be 11 tricks for Declarer.
But if West continues Clubs at Trick Two, things are not so simple for Declarer. Dummy is forced to ruff the second Club, and now the plan of running Diamonds may not work. Look what happens … ruff the Club at Trick Two, draw two rounds of trumps, now play the Diamonds … but, if the hand with the long trump has only one Diamond, he’ll ruff the second round of Diamonds, continue Clubs forcing Dummy to ruff, and now Dummy’s last entry has been used up before the Diamonds can be unblocked. As it happens, Diamonds are 2-2, so this line of play works for 11 tricks, which is a shame because it really does not deserve to. No, if South wants style points as well as 11 tricks, she should ruff the second round of Clubs, cross to the A♠, ruff another Club, cross to the A♠, ruff a Spade, and play trumps … 11 tricks even when Diamonds are 3-1.
With just 12 HCPs opposite a passed hand, West can see that the opponents are likely to be playing this one, so he is more inclined to make a lead-directional bid. And so he does here, bidding 1♥, notwithstanding the partnership’s 5-card major system. However, East never gets the chance to lead a Heart, instead he must toil in 1NT.
Against 1NT, South will likely lead a Spade, after which Declarer appears scheduled to go down one or two. But there is hope! Suppose that the defense takes its ♠AKJ, now what? At this point, the defense has 6 obvious tricks, and Declarer has 6 if he can guess the Q♦ … who will get the 13th trick? That will depend upon North’s shift after taking her Spade tricks. The winning shift is a Heart, but it won’t be obvious, and a Club shift may look more appealing … in that case, South wins the K♣, cashes the 13th Spade, but now Declarer can set up her Club trick before the defense sets up its Heart trick.
Against 1NT, East will probably lead a low Spade, which blows a trick immediately. Now, Declarer will play on Hearts and end up with 8 easy tricks. Nor are things better if East leads the J♠ … Declarer wins this in hand, and (after knocking out A♥) later leads the 9♠, skewering West’s doubleton Eight, scoring 4 Spade tricks (and 8 in total) more exotically. To hold Declarer to 7 tricks a minor suit is required … this does not look so appealing to West, so expect numerous +120 scores.
East has only 4 HCPs but it would surely be wrong to pass 1♦ holding just one card in the suit. After East’s 1♠, South must decide whether or not to risk a 2♥ bid. She does have 13 HCPs, but we would pass anyway, there are altogether too many minus factors here … no Heart fillers, no side-suit fillers, the singleton Q♣, these are all negatives. Need we go on? Oh, alright, we shall … there’s also the K♦ under the Diamond bidder, no Aces, and the issue of vulnerability. Yes, it’s safe to say that a 2♥ overcall is not without risks and flaws.
So, South passes 1♠, West raises to 2♠, and the focus shifts to Ms North. She had a perfect take-out Double of 1♠ earlier on, except that the opponents were thoughtless enough to open 1♦ instead. Now, second time around, with the opponents bidding and raising Spades, she can make a take-out Double, and should, in our view. True, the opponents’ strength is unlimited, but they have found their Spade fit, and if they have a game they’ll no doubt bid it. But if they don’t have game we’d like at least to get them up to the 3-level. North’s Double in this situation is sometimes called a “pre-balance”, and the classic shape is 1-4-4-4 (the Spade shortness explaining the absence of an earlier Double).
After the pre-balancing Double, South must decide between 3♥ and 4♥. In a team game we would bid 4♥ in a flash, but at matchpoints it’s far from obvious. Perhaps we are not keeping faith with our earlier Pass, but we would take a shot at 4♥ here anyway … after all, Partner’s pre-balance is forcing us to the 3-level vulnerable, so she must have something over there!
We predict that most N-S pairs will get to game one way or another. A possible defense is the Q♠ opening lead won by East’s Ace, followed by a Diamond shift, which leads to a later Diamond ruff for the defense, holding Declarer to 10 tricks. This won’t be found at all tables, so expect a mixture of 620’s and 650’s.
After North’s 2♣ raise, South is going to the 5-level regardless, and with the expectation of making. But, the opponents may well push on to 5♠, which they will no doubt play doubled. In that case, it’s likely that an opening Club lead from Partner will get ruffed. So it’s imperative to get Partner (if on lead against 5♠ doubled), to lead a Heart, lest Declarer is able to ruff that opening Club, draw trumps, and pitch some Heart losers on Diamonds. Yes, that 3♥ bid is lead-directional. Not that it matters on this hand, because the defense has the A♠ … so, even if North’s opening Club is ruffed, the defense still gets a second chance to grab its Heart tricks.
However, let’s not forget those lead-directors in competitive auctions, they can pay big dividends!
West’s 2NT is the Jacoby 2NT, showing 4-card support and game-going values. East’s 3♦ shows shortness, but see the Link for an alternative (dare we say better?) method. Shortness opposite West’s Ax is not great news, it would be better if West had more Diamonds for ruffing … as it is, we have a bunch of Spades that must be taken care of. After 3♦, West’s 3♥ was forcing, of course, encouraging a cue-bid from Partner. Now, East’s 4♣ showed something in Clubs (in this case, no doubt the Ace) and denied something in Spades (no doubt without the Ace). West makes one more try with 4♦ at which point East has nothing left to cue-bid, but he does have a couple of black Queens and an optimistic nature, so he tries 6♥.
A difficult auction to a reasonable slam. 11% of the time the slam will be off thanks to bad luck in the trump suit … of the other 89%, the slam will make whenever the J♣ comes down in three rounds, and, failing that, it’ll make whenever the J♠ can be guessed. All in all, it comes to about 62% … true, they might get a Spade ruff on the go, but that is more than counterbalanced by the chances of South’s opening lead giving Declarer his 12th trick.
Is there any way of ferreting out that J♠, any way of improving our chances of guessing right? None that we can see … South will lead the J♦, trumps will be drawn, Clubs cashed without the early drop of the J♣, and the last Club will be ruffed. At this point both defenders will have shown up with a total of 5 cards in Hearts plus Clubs, and there appears to be very little clue here. Happy guessing!
It’s easy to see how E-W might get shut out of the auction after North’s 1♣ opening … East has nothing to say, and West declines to introduce his less-than-magnificent Spade suit. Feeble bidding by E-W perhaps, considering that they have the majority of the HCPs … but the good news for E-W is that they are likely to beat that 1NT contract by at least two vulnerable tricks.
East should surely lead the T♣, overtaken by the Ace … Club return won by East’s King … Clubs then cleared … now, a Diamond to the Ace … then a Diamond to the Jack, Queen, King … Clubs cashed … followed by 3 Hearts for the defense. That will be down two and -200 for Declarer.
Anyone for a 1♦ opening bid by North? Well, some would prefer it to 1♣, it’s not a debate that we have strong feelings about. Our own choice is normally to open 1♣ with those 4-4 minor hands unless the Diamonds are somewhat better, but there are numerous other views on the subject. On the actual hand, a 1♦ opening by North might actually work out better … East may make a (somewhat crummy) 2♣ overcall, after which there will be no -200 for N-S.
The featured E-W auction worked out rather well, considering what might have happened … staying in 2♦ is worth +90 or +110, but there is the danger that East will bid more. In fact, he has two other ways by which he might push his side overboard: (a) East might open 1NT, claiming an extra HCP for that long Diamond suit … now Partner is likely to take this one to 3NT (via Stayman), but even bidding Stayman, then just 2NT, will still get E-W too high; (b) East might rebid 3♦, which will surely result in 3NT going down.
We actually like East’s (winning) plan as per the featured auction. Yes, it always helps to see all four hands before making these pronouncements, and we’ll freely admit that we might well have opened the hand 1NT … but, at matchpoints, we really don’t see the need to open 1♦ and rebid 3♦.
Suppose that East ends up declaring a Diamond part-score … can N-S hold Declarer to 8 tricks? Sure they can! Please see Defense Problem # 26.
After South’s opening 1♣, West was stuck for a bid: Dbl: Not a good idea with only 2 cards in an unbid major. Pass: Better than doubling, but with 17 HCP’s it would be nice to bid something. 1NT: Right on values, but no Club stop. 1♥: Yes, that would be our choice, a nice chunky 4-card overcall.
We don’t suppose that everyone will agree with a 1♥ bid here, but to us it seems like the best choice in an awkward situation.
Notwithstanding the above, 2♥ is an unhappy contract. North will lead the Q♣ and continue the suit. After the defense has cashed 3 rounds of Clubs, a switch to the A♦, then another Diamond to the King … now a 3rd Diamond puts the contract down two tricks … Declarer can ruff the Diamond with the Ten, but North will get in later with the K♥, and South can now overruff Dummy on the 4th round of Diamonds.
This is an awkward hand for South using standard methods. South is good enough to make a jump shift to 3♥, but now North has no idea whether South is 5-4 or 5-5 in the majors … so, with 3 Hearts, she’ll be forced to guess between 3NT or 4♥. There is a gadget to solve this problem, please see the Convention of the Week.
Without any gadgetry, North will guess to rebid 3NT, and will play it there. East will no doubt lead a Diamond, won by West’s Ace. Thanks to the friendly Heart suit, Declarer has 11 tricks at this point, and a Diamond continuation will provide a gift-wrapped 12th. A shift to anything (except a low Spade!) holds Declarer to 11 tricks, but the temptation will be strong to continue Diamonds, just in case East started with KT9x … it would be somewhat embarrassing to shift when the defense can take the first 5 tricks! So, the Fear of Embarrassment Factor will lead to lots of +690’s, we predict.
After South’s Weak Two, we don’t think that North has quite enough to go to game directly, some sort of invitational sequence is called for. Most partnerships use 2NT as an artificial bid in this situation (see Link), here’s what might happen with three of the available methods: Feature: Over 2NT, South shows an Ace or a King in a side-suit … here, South shows the A♥, which is enough encouragement for North to go to game. Ogust: Over 2NT, South describes his hand further, and chooses the option which says “Good hand, bad suit”, again prompting North to bid game. Modified Ogust: There’s a version of Ogust which allows Opener to show “Good, Medium, Bad” … South has 10 HCPs which might seem “good”, but it’s an ugly 10, we might be tempted to downgrade it to “medium” … but, either way, North will bid game.
Against South’s 4♠, all will depend on the opening lead. Looking at the West hand, it’s far from obvious that a Diamond lead is called for, but that’s the killer … Diamond to East’s Queen, A♦ cashed, now a Heart shift and it’s down one. We’d think that a Heart lead is more likely, unless West is forewarned in the bidding by a “Feature” bid … on a Heart lead, Declarer wins and tackles trumps, and, when East gets in he must promptly cash the A♦ or he won’t score it … so, making 5 or 6, depending on East’s alertness.
How about a Club opening lead? Dummy wins the first trick, trumps are played, and when East wins the A♠ a Heart shift puts Declarer on the spot. Should she rise with the Ace, hoping that the J♣ comes down? … or should she finesse the Heart, going for the maximum, but risking defeat on the actual layout? A no-brainer playing IMPs, of course, less clear-cut at matchpoints … we’d be inclined to make sure of the contract, anyway, by going up with the Ace, making sure of 10 tricks, with 11 if the Clubs behave.
South’s 2NT is the Jacoby 2NT (game-forcing with Spade support), but what is that 5♣ all about? Yes, it’s Exclusion Key Card! North’s hand is solid (well, almost) except for the small matter of those 3 missing Aces. There’s no point in using regular Key Card because an answer of “two” will leave North none the wiser, she’ll not know whether the Aces include the useless A♣ or not. So, out comes Exclusion, and South shows two Key Cards (“excluding” the A♣) without the Q♥ … this gets N-S quickly to 6♥, making in comfort.
Without Exclusion, N-S will probably get to 6♥ anyway, just on general values. But, suppose that South’s minor suit holdings were reversed … now, 7♥ is cold but it’s awfully difficult to reach with Exclusion.
By the way, South was right to bid 5♣ immediately … if she had prevaricated by bidding 3♣ (shortness) first her Partner might have inadvertently preempted her with a 4♠ bid, taking away the Exclusion option.
Suppose, for the sake of argument, that West had passed instead of bidding 2♠ … in that case, a bid of 1NT by North would show 18-19 HCPs. Now, back to the actual auction … over West’s 2♠ bid, does 2NT show the same 18-19 HCPs? No, that’s too big a bid opposite a silent Partner, with such a hand you’d just have to double. So, what does 2NT means here? Yes, a minor-oriented hand, 4-6 being a very likely distribution … that was the intent of North in the featured auction.
Nonetheless, E-W zip into 4♠, and, yes, we’d no doubt double 4♠ too, scoring up another character-forming -790.
The big decision in this auction had to be made by South … when 2♦ got back to her, should she go quietly or balance? But, not such a big decision really, it seems pretty clear to do something, especially as N-S are non-vulnerable. The obvious way back into the auction is with a Double … N-S will probably end up in Spades, but the Double also keeps other irons in the fire … for example, North might have 5 Hearts, and, notwithstanding East’s 1♥ bid, the best spot for N-S could well be 2♥.
If N-S play it in Spades, they’ll score just 7 tricks, with no realistic prospects for an 8th. If E-W buy it in Diamonds, they have 8 tricks, no more. So, South’s balance works just fine, scoring -50 instead of -90. Well, maybe … did any E-W pairs make a speculative Double of 2♠? Macho stuff if you found it, you no doubt got close to a top.
After North’s 1NT, East is faced with a dilemma … Double or Pass? Wrong shape for a Double, too much strength for a Pass. We don’t profess to know what is right here, but we will say that the fact that the opponents are vulnerable is an extra reason to pass, as it increases the chances of +200 when defending.
The bottom line is that a Double will fetch a 2♥ bid from Partner (unless North saves the day with 3♦), and the 4-2 fit will escape for down one. If East passes, the auction will be as shown above, and it will be E-W that is going plus.
The defense can beat 2♦ by two tricks prosaically and by three tricks exotically: Prosaic Defense: K♥ opening lead, then Q♥ overtaken by the Ace, Heart ruff, and the defense still has two black Aces and two trump tricks to come. Exotic Defense: K♥, Q♥ (not overtaken), low Club, Diamond to the Ace with East unblocking the King (!). Thereafter, East will take his black Aces (killing Dummy), and will have a trump exit card, leaving Declarer to lose two more Hearts in the end-game. Well, we did say that it was exotic.
E-W had a simple enough auction to 3NT. South will lead Hearts, the unbid suit, and Declarer must be careful! Please see Play Problem # 27.
At his second turn, East had a choice of 3 bids: 2NT: Not our choice with those 2 small Diamonds. 2♥: This bid would tend to show a 6th Heart, although some partnerships would use it here as a sort of waiting bid, thereby providing an alternative to supporting Clubs immediately with such a a nondescript hand. 3♣: Not ideal, we’d prefer a better or more distributional hand for this bid.
As you can see, we are equally unenthusiastic about 2♥ and 3♣. In the featured auction, West was too good simply to bid 3NT over 3♣, so he made the encouraging bid of 3♦ … but East was not co-operating and simply bid 3NT.
Against 3NT, South will probably lead the 3♦ … even though this strongly indicates to Declarer that the missing Diamonds are 4-4, he’ll duck a couple of rounds anyway. After winning the 3rd round of Diamonds, Declarer must decide how to play the Clubs … the good spots allow him to pick up Qxxx in either hand … however, to pick up Qxxx with North he must take a first-round finesse, which risks losing to South’s singleton Queen, so the percentage play is to cash K♣ and finesse the other way. Alas, the theoretically correct play is the losing play on this hand … the finesse loses, the defense cashes the 4th round of Diamonds, and now Declarer must rely on the Heart finesse for his 9th trick.
Another quite reasonable auction would be 1♥ 2♣, 2♥ 2NT, 3♣ 3♥, 3NT. This more tortuous sequence puts North on lead. If he chooses a Diamond, the play will be as before. But he might well choose a Spade lead. This looks bad for the defense but, as the cards lie, it will no doubt result in the same 9 tricks for Declarer, the only difference being that Declarer will have a choice of plays (in Hearts and Spades) for his 9th trick, both of which work.
Opposite a Weak 2♦ bid, at any other vulnerability, North would bid an immediate 5♦, applying maximum pressure. But, when red against white, there is less margin of error, so 4♦ is as much as North should do. It’s not enough, though, to keep the opponents out of 4♠.
Declarer makes 11 tricks, losing just a Diamond and a Club, but if South starts with A♦ and another Diamond there will be some anxious moments along the way. Dummy will ruff the second round, trumps are drawn in 3 rounds, and the A♣ is played, South dropping the Ten. Now Declarer is faced with a dilemma, as his once magnificent Dummy is running out of entries. The options are: Line A: Cash the K♣, scoring 12 tricks if the Q♣ is doubleton, without the need of the Heart finesse … however, that line risks going down if Clubs are 4-1 and the K♥ is offside, as Declarer won’t have enough entries to Dummy to set up the Clubs. Line B: Lead a low Club toward the Jack, making sure of 11 tricks.
An interesting choice, we think. That Diamond continuation looks suspicious, though … surely South, looking at that Dummy, would shift to a Heart, unless he was holding the King. With that in mind, we would risk Line A. Of course, with the K♥ on-side, it’s academic, and all roads lead to 11 tricks.
With 5-5 in the majors, after they open 1♣ or 1♦, many players use the “weak-strong” style of the Michaels Cue-Bid: Weak: They bid Michaels, and then (usually) leave it to Partner to do the rest of the bidding. Intermediate: They overcall 1♠, planning to compete in Hearts later. Strong: They bid Michaels, planning to bid again later. “Intermediate” is an imprecise term, but we’d say something in the 10-15 range is about right … needless to say, this is a guideline, not a rule, there’s always scope for hand evaluation.
On the above basis, East, with a lovely 16 HCP’s, decides he is worth a Michaels bid and another call later in the auction, in other words the “strong” variety. As it happens N-S start competing in Diamonds and East must decide what to do over 3♦. 3♥ here would be purely competitive, showing a weak Michaels, presumably with extra distribution. The way for East to show strength here is to double, after which West has no reason to bid more than 3♥.
So much for East’s choices in the bidding, what about South? What are your partnership’s methods after the opponents make a Michaels Cue-Bid? The method outlined in the System Library is to use the major suit cue-bids to show invitational (or better) hands in Clubs or Diamonds, and for direct minor suit bids to show weaker hands. This is far from being the only workable method over their Michaels, but it does have the advantage of working well on the actual hand, as it allows South to compete with 2♦ … the bid is natural and “competitive”, by which we mean that it shows less than invitational values.
Anyway, in the featured auction, N-S get to their last making contract of 4♦, and E-W decline to bid on to 4♥ (down 2 for -200, even if they escape undoubled). Precise bidding, don’t you think? Well, precise perhaps, but maybe not optimal. North could have put East under huge pressure after West’s 2♥ bid. Clearly North could expect the opponents to bid on to 3♥ with their likely 9-card fit, and clearly North was always intending to bid on to 4♦. In that case perhaps she should bid 4♦ immediately! Yes, consider East’s position in these two sequences:
South West North East Pass Pass 1♣ 2♣ 2♦ 2♥ 3♦ Dbl Etc In this auction, East should feel pretty good about things. He showed a major two-suiter, Partner supported Hearts, then East showed a good hand … at this point, East is willing to abide by Partner’s future decisions, happy that he has accurately described his hand.
South West North East Pass Pass 1♣ 2♣ 2♦ 2♥ 4♦ ?? In this auction East is very much under the gun. He has shown a major two-suiter, and Partner should reasonably expect him to have the weaker variety. Now, here he is at the 4-level with all sorts of extras, opposite a partner who freely bid 2♥. It’s hard to conceive of a Pass by East in this situation, and this is most unfortunate for E-W. East will surely double 4♦ (showing a good Michaels) rather than bid 4♥ (showing a highly distributional Michaels), but either way E-W are in trouble … if they defend 4♦ doubled they will score -510 … if they bid on to 4♥ they’ll score -200 (always bad on a part-score hand), or -500 if doubled.
To summarize, yes, we really, really like that 4♦ bid by North!
It’s far from obvious to us that West’s quacky hand is worth an opening bid, but West apparently thought so. East’s 2♦ was artificial (New Minor Forcing), West showed 4 Hearts (and did not deny a 3rd Spade), then East’s jump to 3NT confirmed that he had enough for game with 5 Spades … without 5 Spades he would have bid 3NT directly, without wasting time on a New Minor Forcing auction.
Against 3NT, North will probably lead a Diamond … the only suit not bid naturally, and also the only suit in which she can offer Partner some help. This is a most unfortunate lead, however, and Declarer will now score 10 easy tricks via 1 Spade, 2 Hearts, 4 Diamonds, and 3 Clubs … on anything other than a Diamond lead, Declarer has to struggle to make just 9 tricks. But it’s hard to find an excuse to lead anything other than a Diamond from that North hand, so perhaps -630 will not be such a terrible result for N-S.
What an enterprising auction by all concerned! East’s Double was quite normal, no need to let that doubleton Club get in the way on an otherwise perfectly good take-out Double. South’s 2♣ here is generally played as non-forcing … it should show some values, though. West’s Double was quite manly, he no doubt saw the vulnerability and had visions of +200.
North is in an unusual situation after West’s Double. If the Double was for penalty, then presumably Support Redoubles are off, and we would interpret North’s Redouble as SOS, as in “We belong anywhere but Clubs!”. South begs to differ, taking his chances in 2♣ redoubled. Now, West, he of the manly Double, should use some discretion and cravenly retreat to 2♦ (if he toughs it out in 2♣ redoubled, the opponents will make an overtrick and he’ll score a most undignified -1160!). After 2♦, South tries 2♥, and that’s where her side will play it.
West is on lead against 2♥. Some auctions suggest a trump lead … this particular auction, and West’s Club holding, screams out “Lead a trump!” A trump lead holds Declarer to 9 tricks … on any other lead, Declarer will score those minor suit Aces, and all 8 of his trumps separately, making 4!
West might have been tempted to try 3♠ over 3♥, after all he does have 7 Spades and a couple of side-suit Aces … if he does bid 3♠, North will double (somewhat speculatively) and will be relieved to beat the contract one trick for +200.
Should South have pushed on to 4♥? Some players subscribe to the theory that, after opening the bidding, when Partner invites game (in a fit auction), you always bid game whenever you have a singleton. It’s an extreme rule, maybe, but it works like a charm on this board! Even though South has a complete minimum, 4♥ will probably make … the Diamond finesse works, and the defense’s only chance is a prompt shift by West to a low Club, giving Declarer a guess before the Diamonds get going.
East’s 2♣ was Fourth Suit Forcing … what should East bid at his third turn? It appears that E-W will play this one in some number of No Trump … game or slam? It seems to us that East is not quite good enough to insist on slam and should be making an invitational bid here. How does East do that? 3NT: East has 19, and 3NT here shows 15-17, so this is not an option. 4NT: This could be used as Key Card for Diamonds, but we’d prefer a 4♦ Minorwood bid for that … playing Minorwood frees up 4NT as a natural and quantitative bid. 2NT: This shows 12-14, normally, so it might seem odd for us even to mention it …but, 2NT is also forcing (assuming that you play Fourth Suit forcing to game), so it can be used as an either-or bid, showing 12-14 or 18-19. Normally, it’s the former, but, once in a while, as here, after 2♦, the auction will proceed 2NT 3NT, 4NT, that last bid showing 18-19.
If you like the idea of 2NT followed by 4NT as showing 18-19, and if you are also playing Minorwood, then what should a direct 4NT (over 2♦) mean? Perhaps just straight Ace-asking, though we are not sure how often the need for this will arise.
Anyway, suppose that, one way or another, East manages to make an invitational 4NT bid. Will West accept? We don’t think he should with that minimum hand. Good judgment by E-W if they avoided the rather poor slam … it needs Diamonds 3-2 and the Queen on-side, which works out to 34%. It’s not a slam you want to be in, except that it happens to make, so bad luck and a bad board for those delicate bidders who languished in 4NT.
North had a couple of noteworthy choices to make in this auction. First of all, 1♣ or 1♦? When we hold 3-3 in the minors, and are constrained by our 5-card major system to open one of these 3-card minors, we can adopt any one of these three styles: Better Minor: We open whichever of those 3-card minors is stronger. Always 1♣: We open 1♣, even with ♠ Axxx, ♥ xxx, ♦ AKQ, ♣ xxx Usually 1♣: We open 1♣ most of the time, but will make an exception when the Diamonds are much stronger than the Clubs … the strength difference should be substantial, for example ♠ Axxx, ♥ xxx, ♦ AKx, ♣ Qxx.
We prefer the “Usually 1♣” approach, because it increases the chances of our 1♦ openings being respected as (almost always) showing a 4-card suit. But we are also big on “bidding for the lead”, so when there is a serious strength discrepancy we reserve the right to throw in a 1♦ lead-director once in a while. But each partnership must choose its own poison, that just happens to be ours.
Moving along, we have forced that 1♣ bid on you, Partner bids 1♥, and it’s your call. You have three not utterly unreasonable choices here: 2♥: Yes, you have most of your HCPs in Hearts but, really, is this a hand where you want to encourage suit play? 1♠: Yes, you have 4 Spades, but again, is this really a hand where you want to encourage suit play? More to the point, if you do bid 1♠ (or 2♥), Partner is apt to expect some playing strength from you and may well invite to game … you’ll bail out at the 3-level, but that may be too high. 1NT: Yes!
If North does indeed rebid 1NT she will be blessed with a score of +90. Of course, N-S have a 4-4 Spade fit and can also make 8 tricks for +110. Does this mean that North guessed wrong when she went for the 1NT rebid? Not at all! If she had rebid 1♠, Partner would surely have rebid 3♠, inviting game … down one! So, yes, playing in Spades at the two-level is a winner, but it’s also not possible!
We happen to like that 1♦ opening bid … it passes the Rule of 20, and there are no dubious values. But, having opened on that minimum hand because it was distributional, it would surely be wrong to let Partner wallow in 2NT, it seems that 3♦ must be a better spot.
And so it is. 2NT has no chance and will be down two, maybe even three. 3♦ squeaks home on careful play … Spade to the Ace, Heart to the King and Ace, Spade ruff, Diamond to the Queen, Diamond to the Jack (ducked by Declarer in case of doubleton Ace with East), Spade ruff, and now Declarer has just enough trumps to establish the Clubs and withstand another Spade force. Two points worth noting in the play: (a) Declarer wanted to play trumps by leading towards the Q♦, that way giving herself a chance for just one loser in the suit if East started with Ace doubleton. (b) In order to get back to hand for that Diamond lead, Declarer did not ruff a Spade at Trick Two, that would cost her a tempo … instead she knocked out a side-suit Ace, knowing that the defense would lead a Spade anyway at Trick Three. Ruffing the Spade at Trick Two risks losing trump control.
In third seat, after two passes, we are not averse to tossing in a lead-directing 4-card major … but here West is 3-4-3-3 and vulnerable, such opening bids have been known to lead to the dreaded -200 … so, we would pass with that tempting Heart suit.
How about East’s 1NT? By a passed hand it shows the minors, of course … a good bid in our view, notwithstanding the vulnerability.
Now, we turn our attention to South. Yes, it seems pretty clear to balance with 2♥ and that will no doubt buy the contract.
Against 2♥ we hesitate (or gracefully decline) to predict a likely sequence of plays. West will lead the J♣, that much we do predict. After that, who can say? We predict that 13 tricks will be won, most of them by Declarer. In fact Declarer will probably get 8 of them, losing 2 Hearts, 2 Clubs, and a Diamond.
What a delicious auction! What does it all mean? Here’s a quick review of our interpretation of the key bids: 2♣: Yes, it’s pretty much minimum. 2♠: Yes, it’s pretty much maximum. 3♠: Just competing (with a game-try hand, East would bid 3♥) 3NT: Ooh la la! North could not bid 3NT earlier, now she gives it a shot. This unusual sequence surely shows a Diamond suit in need of help, a decent hand and a Spade stopper. Dbl: Lead a Club! 4♦: A most wise removal!
And the bottom line is: 3NT: Makes 9 tricks if East obligingly leads a Spade, so full marks for West’s Double to prevent that lead; 4♦: Makes 10 tricks; 4♠: Surprisingly, it also makes! Yes, it’s terrifically lucky, spare yourself the self-flagellation if you missed this cold (and lucky) game.
Without further ado, we’ll unveil our preferred choice here … as South we’d bid 1♥. Yes, really. Is this an outrageous psyche? No, of course not, our Partner has opened and we have 11 HCPs, we are in a constructive auction here, there’s no reason to fool the opposition with an outright psyche (in fact, there rarely is). We would consider 1♥ as the least of evils, so let’s review those evils: 2♣: This is perfect if you don’t play this bid as game-forcing … if you do, then it’s not an option. 2NT: Not terrible, but probably wrong-siding our likely best contract … with that lousy Spade holding, if we are to play it in No Trump, then we’d like to see Partner at the helm. 1♥: Yes, that’s all that’s left … once in a while Partner will raise, now we’ll bid Clubs and hope that Partner will see it in her heart to bid 3NT. And if Partner stubbornly persists with Hearts? Then the odds are that she has 4-card support, and, if the opponents decide on a Spade attack, at least we’ll be able to take the force in the short hand.
But, whether or not South makes the studious 1♥ response, we predict that most tables will play this one in 3NT from the North side. How will it do? Well, thanks to the non-appearance of Clubs in the auction, who could blame East for leading one? Now a couple of Spade finesses, a running Diamond suit, and a Heart trick, and that’s 9 tricks and lots of matchpoints.
Of all the Fourth Suit Forcing sequences, this one is the least economical, and it leads to a crowded auction. After 3♦, South is slammish in Diamonds, what are her options? 4NT: We don’t like using this as Roman Key Card in Diamonds, surely it’s better to use 4NT here as a quantitative bid, inviting slam in a no-fit auction. Anyway, we don’t think the hand is quite good enough for Key Card, we need some cooperation from Partner if slam is to be bid. 4♣: Perhaps this bid should agree Diamonds, in which case that would be our choice. 4♦: We’d like this to be Minorwood (but only if 4♣ agrees Diamonds), but not that’s by no means a mainstream treatment.
Anyway, South should make a slam try (or ask Key Cards), and North will cooperate (that K♠ looks like a big card), and 6♦ will be reached, at least at some of the tables.
We always hesitate to predict a flat board, but this might actually be one! 4♥ making 11 tricks, we defy you to do otherwise!
We love to preempt one level higher than normal when we are white against red. Having said that, we think that West’s 3♠ bid is over the top! 2♠ would be plenty here, what with that dangling Queen and a notable lack of singletons. Not that it matters too much, N-S is going to play this one in 3NT from the South side.
West will lead the Q♠, a conventional lead saying “Drop the Jack if you have it”. Instead, East drops the 7, a count card. West will shift, to a Heart or a Club, but Declarer has the timing to set up the Diamonds for 9 tricks.
Another 3rd hand decision. As East, some would throw in a lead-directing 1♠ here … we’d hesitate to call that a mistake, but we prefer the Pass here, we don’t like the vulnerability, and all those Queens and the suit is not that good. With or without a 1♠ bid from East, it looks like South will play this one in 1NT.
In the play, this turns out to be a lucky hand for N-S … the Q♥ comes down, the Q♠ is onside. Nine tricks seems likely.
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