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Hand Analyses May 10th , 2006
West’s Double is penalty-oriented, but East, with zero defense, and support for Partner’s Spades, quite reasonably retreats to 3♠.
3♦ was destined to go down one, and 3♠ makes on the nose. Against 3♠, North leads a Diamond, to South’s Queen and Declarer’s Ace. Now Declarer has no need for ruffs on the board, he should simply lead the K♠ from his hand, eventually losing a trick in each suit.
N-S have the majority of the points, but with the opponents bidding the majors in front of them, they get shut out of the auction. And, thankfully so, because this gives an alert South the chance to inflict a penalty. What does that balancing Double mean? Presumably a decent hand, with something in Hearts and short in Spades … a hand that was unable to take action earlier, with something in the minors. True, South has pretty pathetic support for Diamonds, but she’s not bidding it with hopes of playing in 3 of a minor … her hope is that North can convert the Double to a penalty.
North does, indeed, make a penalty Pass, and the defense collects a 500 penalty.
Sensible play brings in 9 tricks. West no doubt leads the J♦, won by Declarer’s King. Then A♠, lose a Diamond, and later ruff a Diamond, eventually losing a trick in each suit for +140. Yes, it’s possible to make 10 tricks, thanks to the QJ doubleton of Spades, and the lucky Heart position (doubleton A♥) … the combined chances of this are less than 1%, not very good odds when you consider that going for 10 will give you 8 most of the time (the QJ will not come down, the Hearts will not be kind and Dummy will not get the Diamond ruff). No, the obvious line of going for the ruff is clearly best.
This is one of those boards where random forces will determine whether you get a good result or a bad result: Case 1: If E-W are playing Inverted Minors, East does not have convenient Diamond raise … 2♦ would show a slightly stronger hand, and 3♦ would be a weaker hand, or at least one with a 5th Diamond. Thus, as in the featured auction, East is obliged to bid 1NT, and ends up declaring 3NT. Case 2: If E-W are not playing Inverted Minors, a raise to 2♦ is more attractive than 1NT, on account of that worthless Heart doubleton. Now, West will end up declaring 3NT.
In Case 1, South leads the Q♥, and, if North covers, the defense is over, they can no longer untangle their 5 tricks. If Dummy (reasonably) ducks, South has the chance to be a star by playing the K♣ before continuing Hearts, but this play seems impossible to find in real life. So, with East as Declarer, 3NT seems destined for 9 tricks (the ninth trick will eventually be established in Hearts).
In Case 2, North leads the obvious Club lead, South shifts to the Q♥, and the hand is down one provided that North remembers to cash the A♣ immediately, upon winning the A♥.
If South had opened 1♣ or 1♦, we would certainly bid 1♥ with the North hand … but over 1♠, taking a call of 1NT is less attractive. After North’s Pass, East does not have a suitable hand for balancing, and 1♠ making 8 tricks for +110 is the likely result.
However, if North does dredge up a 1NT bid, things work out rather well! South will rebid 2♥, which will get passed out for 9 tricks and +140. It’s hard to argue with success!
West has no real slam aspirations and only uses the Jacoby 2NT as a mechanism to show a serious raise to 4♥, as opposed to a preemptive raise to 4♥. North can hardly not bid 5♦ at this vulnerability, and East makes a forcing Pass. West has an obvious Double, of course.
5♦ doubled goes down just one, but it turns out to be a phantom sacrifice when E-W cannot come to their 10 tricks in Spades. Nonetheless, we’d expect 5♦ doubled to be the result at most tables.
Regardless of whether East’s Double is Negative, or merely value-showing, West can surely not pass here, the potential for slam is just too great. A bid of 4♠ would be altogether too feeble, and the choice seems to be between 5♥ and 5♠. No doubt, 5♥ would get a lot of votes, but it won’t help the partnership find a Spade contract … East’s Spades will be too weak for him to suggest Spades. The only way to get to a 4-4 Spade fit (if one exists) is for West to bid 5♠. Yes, 5♠ is our choice here, just bidding what you’ve got is often a good thing. The 5♠ bid gets E-W to 6♠, whereas the more nebulous 5♥ will no doubt land E-W in the lower-scoring 6♦.
As it happens, with the Q♦ coming down, E-W are cold for 7♦ or 7♠ or 7NT, but you really wouldn’t want to be there, especially after that 4♥ preempt. If you bid the grand, consider yourself plain lucky … if you bid 6NT, then very well done, indeed, this contract has better chances than 6♠ … but even 6♠ should score well, beating the 6♦ bidders, and those who took 4♥ doubled for a mere 1100.
Does 5♠ have any special meaning, other than showing Spades and a very good hand? We don’t think that it should be anything other than a natural bid … it’s the only way that West can show Spades and also consult with Partner, so it’s simply not practical to give the bid a meaning such as “Bid 6 with good trumps”, or “Bid 6 if you don’t have 2 Heart losers”
East has a very nice hand, but it’s not quite good enough to insist on game. Some kind of game try is in order, and there are innumerable methods from which to choose. One day, we’ll add a write-up to the System Library, but, in the meantime we’ll offer you one simple approach, and then a refinement. The simple approach is the “Help Suit Game Try”, whereby Opener names a suit in which he would like help, and Responder goes to game if he has help in the suit (and a half-decent hand), or even if he has no help but a super-duper hand. Using this approach, East bids 2♠ (help is definitely needed in that suit!), and West signs off in 3♥, having no help in any suit at all, let alone Spades.
The problem with the Help-Suit method is that it gives a road map to the defense, making it easier for them to find the right opening lead. There’s an alternative Help-Suit method which is less helpful to the defense … Opener makes the cheapest bid (again 2♠, as it happens), which asks Responder to bid the cheapest suit in which he would accept a game try ). On the actual hand, West bids 3♥ over 2♠, saying that he would not accept any Help-Suit game try. See the difference? E-W have revealed no specific weakness in this auction, all that has happened is that West has shown a bad hand. By the way, after 1♥ 2♥, 2♠, a bid of 2NT is used to show help for Spades.
Whatever game-try method E-W are using, they will come to rest in the relatively safe contract of 3♥. But, so much for science … with Hearts 2-2 and the Club finesse working, 10 tricks are there for the taking. If you bid game on this one, then you were probably also the pair that overbid to the grand on the previous board, in which case your opponents must have been delighted to see the back of you!
Would you balance with a Double as West? Non-vulnerable, we would most certainly balance, but vulnerable is far more risky, of course, there is always the specter of -200 as a deterrent. We wouldn’t fault Pass or Double here, either could work.
The bottom line here is that passing 2♦ results, in all likelihood, in a score of -90. Balancing with a Double will result in a score of -100 or -200, depending upon whether 3♣ is doubled … but a score of +50 is also possible if N-S push on to 3♦. That, of course, is the upside of taking action … sometimes, even when it is wrong, it will work out fine if the opponents refuse to sell out. We’ll bet that many Norths will push on to 3♦ on the actual hand, and that not unreasonable action will get them a minus score.
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