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Hand Analyses May 10th , 2006
West’s Double is penalty-oriented, but East, with zero defense, and support for Partner’s Spades, quite reasonably retreats to 3♠.
3♦ was destined to go down one, and 3♠ makes on the nose. Against 3♠, North leads a Diamond, to South’s Queen and Declarer’s Ace. Now Declarer has no need for ruffs on the board, he should simply lead the K♠ from his hand, eventually losing a trick in each suit.
N-S have the majority of the points, but with the opponents bidding the majors in front of them, they get shut out of the auction. And, thankfully so, because this gives an alert South the chance to inflict a penalty. What does that balancing Double mean? Presumably a decent hand, with something in Hearts and short in Spades … a hand that was unable to take action earlier, with something in the minors. True, South has pretty pathetic support for Diamonds, but she’s not bidding it with hopes of playing in 3 of a minor … her hope is that North can convert the Double to a penalty.
North does, indeed, make a penalty Pass, and the defense collects a 500 penalty.
Sensible play brings in 9 tricks. West no doubt leads the J♦, won by Declarer’s King. Then A♠, lose a Diamond, and later ruff a Diamond, eventually losing a trick in each suit for +140. Yes, it’s possible to make 10 tricks, thanks to the QJ doubleton of Spades, and the lucky Heart position (doubleton A♥) … the combined chances of this are less than 1%, not very good odds when you consider that going for 10 will give you 8 most of the time (the QJ will not come down, the Hearts will not be kind and Dummy will not get the Diamond ruff). No, the obvious line of going for the ruff is clearly best.
This is one of those boards where random forces will determine whether you get a good result or a bad result: Case 1: If E-W are playing Inverted Minors, East does not have convenient Diamond raise … 2♦ would show a slightly stronger hand, and 3♦ would be a weaker hand, or at least one with a 5th Diamond. Thus, as in the featured auction, East is obliged to bid 1NT, and ends up declaring 3NT. Case 2: If E-W are not playing Inverted Minors, a raise to 2♦ is more attractive than 1NT, on account of that worthless Heart doubleton. Now, West will end up declaring 3NT.
In Case 1, South leads the Q♥, and, if North covers, the defense is over, they can no longer untangle their 5 tricks. If Dummy (reasonably) ducks, South has the chance to be a star by playing the K♣ before continuing Hearts, but this play seems impossible to find in real life. So, with East as Declarer, 3NT seems destined for 9 tricks (the ninth trick will eventually be established in Hearts).
In Case 2, North leads the obvious Club lead, South shifts to the Q♥, and the hand is down one provided that North remembers to cash the A♣ immediately, upon winning the A♥.
If South had opened 1♣ or 1♦, we would certainly bid 1♥ with the North hand … but over 1♠, taking a call of 1NT is less attractive. After North’s Pass, East does not have a suitable hand for balancing, and 1♠ making 8 tricks for +110 is the likely result.
However, if North does dredge up a 1NT bid, things work out rather well! South will rebid 2♥, which will get passed out for 9 tricks and +140. It’s hard to argue with success!
West has no real slam aspirations and only uses the Jacoby 2NT as a mechanism to show a serious raise to 4♥, as opposed to a preemptive raise to 4♥. North can hardly not bid 5♦ at this vulnerability, and East makes a forcing Pass. West has an obvious Double, of course.
5♦ doubled goes down just one, but it turns out to be a phantom sacrifice when E-W cannot come to their 10 tricks in Spades. Nonetheless, we’d expect 5♦ doubled to be the result at most tables.
Regardless of whether East’s Double is Negative, or merely value-showing, West can surely not pass here, the potential for slam is just too great. A bid of 4♠ would be altogether too feeble, and the choice seems to be between 5♥ and 5♠. No doubt, 5♥ would get a lot of votes, but it won’t help the partnership find a Spade contract … East’s Spades will be too weak for him to suggest Spades. The only way to get to a 4-4 Spade fit (if one exists) is for West to bid 5♠. Yes, 5♠ is our choice here, just bidding what you’ve got is often a good thing. The 5♠ bid gets E-W to 6♠, whereas the more nebulous 5♥ will no doubt land E-W in the lower-scoring 6♦.
As it happens, with the Q♦ coming down, E-W are cold for 7♦ or 7♠ or 7NT, but you really wouldn’t want to be there, especially after that 4♥ preempt. If you bid the grand, consider yourself plain lucky … if you bid 6NT, then very well done, indeed, this contract has better chances than 6♠ … but even 6♠ should score well, beating the 6♦ bidders, and those who took 4♥ doubled for a mere 1100.
Does 5♠ have any special meaning, other than showing Spades and a very good hand? We don’t think that it should be anything other than a natural bid … it’s the only way that West can show Spades and also consult with Partner, so it’s simply not practical to give the bid a meaning such as “Bid 6 with good trumps”, or “Bid 6 if you don’t have 2 Heart losers”
East has a very nice hand, but it’s not quite good enough to insist on game. Some kind of game try is in order, and there are innumerable methods from which to choose. One day, we’ll add a write-up to the System Library, but, in the meantime we’ll offer you one simple approach, and then a refinement. The simple approach is the “Help Suit Game Try”, whereby Opener names a suit in which he would like help, and Responder goes to game if he has help in the suit (and a half-decent hand), or even if he has no help but a super-duper hand. Using this approach, East bids 2♠ (help is definitely needed in that suit!), and West signs off in 3♥, having no help in any suit at all, let alone Spades.
The problem with the Help-Suit method is that it gives a road map to the defense, making it easier for them to find the right opening lead. There’s an alternative Help-Suit method which is less helpful to the defense … Opener makes the cheapest bid (again 2♠, as it happens), which asks Responder to bid the cheapest suit in which he would accept a game try ). On the actual hand, West bids 3♥ over 2♠, saying that he would not accept any Help-Suit game try. See the difference? E-W have revealed no specific weakness in this auction, all that has happened is that West has shown a bad hand. By the way, after 1♥ 2♥, 2♠, a bid of 2NT is used to show help for Spades.
Whatever game-try method E-W are using, they will come to rest in the relatively safe contract of 3♥. But, so much for science … with Hearts 2-2 and the Club finesse working, 10 tricks are there for the taking. If you bid game on this one, then you were probably also the pair that overbid to the grand on the previous board, in which case your opponents must have been delighted to see the back of you!
Would you balance with a Double as West? Non-vulnerable, we would most certainly balance, but vulnerable is far more risky, of course, there is always the specter of -200 as a deterrent. We wouldn’t fault Pass or Double here, either could work.
The bottom line here is that passing 2♦ results, in all likelihood, in a score of -90. Balancing with a Double will result in a score of -100 or -200, depending upon whether 3♣ is doubled … but a score of +50 is also possible if N-S push on to 3♦. That, of course, is the upside of taking action … sometimes, even when it is wrong, it will work out fine if the opponents refuse to sell out. We’ll bet that many Norths will push on to 3♦ on the actual hand, and that not unreasonable action will get them a minus score.
Another vulnerable balancing situation. This balance is a tad safer than the previous board, because the opponents are in a fit auction. We’d like to think that we would find the balancing Double here, but that may be because we can see that 2♠ makes, whereas anything at the 3-level goes down. Yes, looking at all 4 hands, East clearly has to bid here!
What is your plan as South? One option would be to transfer to Hearts, planning to play it in 2♥, unless Opener super-accepts to show a maximum and 4 Hearts, in which case game is a possibility. Plan B would be to use Garbage Stayman … South bids 2♣, then, after 2♥ or 2♠, passes … and, if North bids 2♦, then South bids 2♥, which, by partnership agreement can show a weak hand and both majors. We prefer the Garbage Stayman option, giving up on the highly unlikely game possibility, but improving the chances of finding a part-score major suit fit.
As it happens, both approaches lead to the same contract, albeit played from different sides. It turns out that 10 tricks are made, but you would not want to be in game on these cards, you need the Hearts to be 3-2 with the Queen on-side, and additionally you need some luck in one of the black suits.
What do you bid as East over 2♥? Double is not an option with that doubleton Spade, so the choices are 2NT or Pass. If the vulnerability were reversed, it would be right to bid 2NT, giving your side a chance to bid the vulnerable game … but at this favorable vulnerability the percentage bid is surely to pass … this is a bid which can win in two ways: (a) if game is not possible, then +200 (or more) defending 2♥ undoubled will be a good matchpoint score; (b) if game is possible, then West probably has enough to balance with a Double … now, down two or better beats the score for the E-W game.
After the Pass, West is good enough to balance with a Double … after a Weak Two, in the balancing seat, with shortness in the opponents’ suit, we bend over backwards to make that Double. After all, South did not further the preempt, nor did South make a constructive bid … so, most of the time, East is either ready to Pass the Double or has the values needed for E-W to compete in a part-score. Is West’s 7-count enough for a balancing Double? Absolutely!
2♥ doubled is +800 for E-W. After East passes the balancing double, South can be sure that Partner has been well and truly nailed. Does South do better to run to 2♠? Perhaps it’s worth a try, although it might well turn out to be a case of out of the frying pan into the fire. On the actual layout, 2♠ is not into the fire, it’s merely a different frying pan, and probably goes for the same 800.
North no doubt considered a 1♥ opening … her hand passes the Rule of 20, but it’s a flawed 20, with that doubleton Queen (and having 3 Queens and no Aces is not so pretty, either), so we prefer her actual choice of 2♥.
If the opponents open one of a suit, then a direct 1NT overcall typically shows 15-18, and a balancing 1NT shows something less than that, perhaps 10-14, give or take a point or two. If the opponents open two of a suit, a 2NT overcall shows about the same as before, namely 15-18. But how about a balancing 2NT, is that a reduced range? No, to come in with 2NT, even when balancing, we need a good hand, the same 15-18 that is needed in the direct seat.
3NT by West is the final contract, and the play of this hand is presented as Play Problem # 9
A very difficult hand for E-W! We have managed to concoct an auction which gets E-W to the par spot of 5♦, but we would not be surprised if you find it unconvincing, as we have our own doubts! Let’s analyze the E-W auction, bid by bid:
1♦: Another Rule of 20 opening hand, 5-5 with a 10-count. We think this one is pretty clear-cut … there are no wasted values, more Aces than Queens, and it is fortified by those fillers in the long suits … excellent value for an opening bid, in our opinion. 1♠: The only obvious bid of the entire auction. Pass (over 2♣): Well, maybe not, this one is also somewhat obvious. 3♣: West could make a value-showing Double here, but would hate to see Partner pass for penalties when West has that undisclosed Diamond fit. West might also consider a limit raise of 3♦, but hopefully not for long because it’s a gross underbid. There’s no good number of Spades to be bid, and thus, by a process of elimination, we end up with 3♣ … when in doubt, cue-bid. 3♦: Partner has cue-bid, and we happen to have no fewer than 3 stops in the opponents’ suit. Some players might think that a No Trump bid is called for in these circumstances, and they would certainly have a point. Then again, there’s no fire, why not, along the way, confirm that the Diamond suit is real? 3♠: West is simply bidding what he’s got here, no doubt he would be delighted to play 4♠ in a 5-2 fit. 3NT: Finally, East decides that his three stoppers provide sufficient safety for a 3NT bid. 5♦: The auction is getting progressively more unbelievable, but we did warn you!
Congratulations to any E-W who got to 5♦, whatever the route. 3NT is doomed to down one on a Heart lead. And if, against 3NT, South dutifully leads Partner’s Club suit? Declarer will win the first trick, cash the Diamonds, and no doubt try the Spade finesse in an attempt to make the contract. Unlucky, it’s down three instead!
With her ugly 9-count, North has a simple invitational hand opposite a 15-17 1NT opening. However, in the featured auction, N-S were obviously using 1NT-2NT for some other purpose (perhaps a minor suit bid of some sort, such as a transfer to Diamonds), so, in order to invite in No Trump, North has to go the Stayman route, even though she has no 4-card major.
In the play of 3NT, West will probably lead a Club, North will win the King … then a Diamond, won by East … now, East does best to shift to a Heart, after which 9 tricks will be made on most lines of play.
After an opening bid of 1♣, and a 1♦ overcall, the Negative Double shows both majors … with one major you just bid it naturally, even if it is only a 4-card suit. But, over 1♦ and a 2♣ overcall, the same does not apply … now, bidding 2♥ or 2♠ shows a 5-card suit (and decent values), so the Negative Double is best used to show at least one major, not necessarily both.
However, if you choose to make a Negative Double with just one 4-card major, you need a fallback position when Partner bids the wrong one (partners have a habit of doing that!). The fallback positions are typically: (a) 3-card support for the other major (planning to let Partner play in the 4-3 fit); (b) Limit raise values in Partner’s Diamonds; (c) A hand that can bid some number of No Trump.
On the actual hand, North has 3-card tolerance for Partner’s Spades, and 2♠ is passed out. This is a precarious contract (3♦ would be way safer), but 2♠ has the charming quality of making lots of tricks, thanks to the 3-3 trump break.
A simple enough auction, though South might well have wondered about slam as she was bidding 3NT. On the actual lie of the cards, 6♦ does, indeed make … but, it’s not such a great slam, requiring the Q♦ to come down, and also (on a Club lead) that Hearts are 3-3. Mind you, 3NT is no sure thing on a Club lead, either, needing the Diamonds to come in … when that happens, and Hearts are 3-3, 11 tricks are made.
The final contract is somewhat perilous, but seems destined to make 9 tricks, thanks to the friendly Spades and the not completely unfriendly Diamonds.
East’s 3♥ showed a limit raise in Spades, but West wasn’t going anywhere with that minimum hand. The hands fit well together, so making 9 tricks is no problem … and 10 tricks are there for the taking if Declarer is clever enough to flout the conventional wisdom of “Eight ever, nine never”. In case you are unfamiliar with this saying, it simply means that with 8 trumps you will always finesse for the Queen, and with 9 trumps you will never finesse for the Queen (play for the drop, instead). “Always” and “never” are pretty big words, but, nonetheless, as a general guideline, this is good advice.
With such big fits and extreme distribution, we’d expect a spirited auction on this board. As it happens, there are fewer tricks available on this deal than one would expect … E-W have an 11-card Heart fit and can make but 8 tricks … N-S have a 9-card Diamond fit, and a void in the opponents’ suit, and can make but 10 tricks.
While it’s true that North can be set in 5♦ doubled, it’s not obvious that she will be. Let’s say that East leads the Q♥, ruffed on the board. Now Declarer calls for Dummy’s K♣ and West is put to the guess. It’s not completely obvious that West should duck here … for example, if North started with 3-3-6-1, it’s essential for West to win the A♣, and return a trump, holding North to 10 tricks. Yes, we predict some +750’s on the score-sheet!
North has something of a rebid problem here. No number of Hearts is right … obviously not 2♥ … nor 3♥, this bid is invitational, showing about a King less than North actually has … and 4♥ is more or less right on values, but the Heart suit is just not good enough for the bid. If not some number of Hearts, then what exactly? The only options are 2NT or a fake jump shift. We like North’s actual choice of 2NT … true, it’ll lose some 6-2 Heart fits, but that may not be a bad thing.
If North rebids 2NT, she’ll end up in 3NT … if North rebids 3♣, Partner will bid 3♥, and the final contract will be 4♥. As No Trump and Hearts play virtually the same, we’d naturally prefer to be in No Trump.
How many tricks does North make (in either contract)?. Ten for sure, maybe 11. We don’t suppose that many Declarers will make 11 tricks without a helpful defense, and yet 11 is always possible, at least on a double dummy basis. Suppose that East leads a Diamond, won by West’s Ace. Now a Club comes back, and if North plays the Queen (who wouldn’t?), that will be 10 tricks only. No, the way to 11 tricks is to hop up with the Ace, run the Hearts, watch East squirm, and eventually throw him in with a Club, end-playing him in Spades. So much more fun than taking the mundane (and losing) Club finesse, don’t you think?
Needless to say, West will not be stopping short of 4♥ on this hand, but what is the best way of getting there? One route to 4♥ would be simply to bid it directly, with the idea of putting maximum pressure on the opponents. Not a good plan! If North bids 4♠ (as she would on the actual hand), then it is E-W who are given the last guess, not their opponents. No, West needs a way of showing a 4♥ bid with some “stuff” outside … not that the singleton K♠ and the QJ♣ is a huge amount of “stuff”, but it is surely enough “stuff” to elevate the hand above the level of merely preemptive. Here are West’s options, as we see them: (a) Bid 4♥ anyway, planning to bid 5♥ if the opponents have the temerity to compete to 4♠ (which they often seem to do at this vulnerability!) … we don’t like this plan one bit, it’s unilateral, taking Partner out of the auction and relegating him to spectator status (Partners don’t like that!). (b) Bid 4♥, planning to Pass the opponents’ 4♠ bid … no, we don’t think much of this one either, it doesn’t do justice to the hand’s defensive values, nor to the 6th Heart. (c) Splinter raise of 3♠ … inexpressibly awful, not worth contemplating. (d) Conventional raise of 3NT … some partnerships play that 3NT in this situation shows a 4♥ type of hand, except one with an outside defensive trick … a hand with 5 Hearts and an outside Ace would be just about perfect. True, the West hand does not fall exactly into that mould, but it’s not that far off. (e) Bergen Raise … if you are playing Bergen Raises then you might consider bidding 3♣ or 3♦ (whichever one you use as the limit raise), and then going to game anyway if Partner signs off in 3♥ … this sequence shows a hand which is worth a shot at game, but not worth a Jacoby 2NT bid. (f) Jacoby 2NT … this would be a psyche, of course, or at least a semi-psyche, but we like it anyway! It’s the bid most likely to discourage competition, and it’s unlikely that it will propel E-W too high … if East has slam aspirations, West has plenty of room in which to apply the brakes.
So many choices! Well, not really, we don’t think much of the first three. You can take your pick of the last three, they all have some merit. Considering the vulnerability, and our Spade shortness, we’d love to be able to buy this one in 4♥, and our own guess as to the best way to do this is to try the semi-psychic Jacoby 2NT.
Put yourself next in North’s shoes. Suppose that the bidding goes 1♥ on your left, 4♥ on your right. Would you bid 4♠ at this favorable vulnerability? You betcha! No guarantees that the bid will work, of course, but passing would be altogether too feeble.
Next, put yourself in North’s shoes with a different auction … 1♥ on her left, Jacoby 2NT on her right … now bidding Spades looks downright suicidal … and encouraging a Spade lead when we have A, AK in the minors does not seem too smart, either.
On to the play. In 4♥, E-W makes 10 tricks. And 4♠? That will be down just one, provided that E-W organize their Club ruff … a Club lead on the go, or, more likely, A♥ and a Club shift, will be good enough to get the job done.
This hand is strangely similar to the previous board. Again, 1♥ is the opening bid, and again Responder has a big fit and must choose how to raise Hearts. The options are much the same, except that the conditions have changed … we are not worried about a 4♠ bid with that Spade holding, and the vulnerable opponents are unlikely to be coming in at the 5-level.
It could be right to insist on game, but we’d just make whatever limit raise are dictated by our methods, and leave it at that. However, on this hand, bidding more than that might get N-S to their excellent slam. If North makes just the (recommended) limit raise, forget about slam. If North takes a rosier view, perhaps slam will be reached … this is a tough one to reach, though, getting there will be quite an achievement.
Not much to the auction, nor to the play. This will be 450 all around the room, one would imagine.
We think that West has a pretty clear-cut 4♠ bid … there are far too many minimum East hands which will be enough for game, so no reason to mess around with a game try here.
Against 4♠, North does not have a particularly attractive opening lead, and will probably choose a Diamond. This quite reasonable lead hands Declarer 11 tricks on a plate … without the Diamond lead, West will need to have his Diamond-guessing shoes on to make 11 tricks.
Does North make a limit raise or a preempt? We’d have to say that a limit raise is in order here, even though our hand has less HCPs (and way less defense!) than Partner might reasonably expect. The point is that we have a great source of tricks for a 3NT contract, and preempting is not going to convey that message. As it happens, South has 14 HCPs, and a hand most suitable for a shot at 3NT.
How does 3NT fare? It’ll probably make in real life, here are the possibilities: (a) West leads a Heart, giving Declarer her 8th trick, and the 9th can be generated in either black suit; (b) West leads a Spade, giving Declarer her 8th trick a different way, and the 9th can be made simply by leading up towards the K♣; (c) West leads the Q♣, to Partner’s Ace … now a Heart shift … Declarer rises with the Ace, runs the Diamonds, and end-plays West; (d) West leads the Q♣, but East ducks … now a correct Spade guess, and, once again, it’s 9 tricks. (e) West leads a Diamond! … no, that doesn’t work for the defense either. (f) West leads the 6♣ … yes, that’s the ticket! … East plays the A♣ and shifts to a Heart and it’s down one for Declarer.
Didn’t find that opening 6♣ lead? No, neither did we.
Yes, we would certainly open the North hand, and, once Partner has shown 4 Hearts we’d just keep bidding and bidding and bidding. As luck would have it, our 5♥ sacrifice against 5♣ turns out not to be a sacrifice at all! Making 11 tricks, for +650.
Expect the same auction, the same Diamond lead, and the same 420 at most tables.
North’s Redouble is an offspring of the Support Double, showing 3-card support for Partner’s Hearts. And North’s Double on the next round of bidding? Just card-showing, we would say, a hand with extras. South’s is not a hand with extras, though, far from it, and 2♥ is likely to be the final contract.
It seems that 2♥ will make 8 tricks. One typical line of play would go as follows … Club lead, won by the King … Club ruff … Spade to the Jack and Ace … another Club, on which Declarer pitches a Diamond. Declarer ends up scoring 5 Hearts, a Spade and 2 Clubs.
No, we’re not in love with that 3♥ bid either, it’s not exactly a textbook preempt. But, it’s also not practical bridge to sit around waiting for the perfect hand, experience teaches us that bidding is so often better than not bidding. This is not a game for the shy! How about North’s Pass? No, it’s not quite good enough for 4♥, we think that Pass is in order here.
Anyone for a heroic balancing bid in the East seat? It’s always tempting to come in when we are short in the preempt suit, but perhaps East needs a little bit more to take action. We would pass as East, and we note, with regret, that coming in with a Double or with 3♠, albeit borderline psychotic bidding, is also the winning action. Of course, West will take it to 4♠, but 4♠ down one (even if doubled) beats 3♥ making.
That 2♦ bid initiates a long-winded Fourth Suit Forcing auction. The 3♥ bid confirmed that Hearts really were trumps, and showed at least something extra … with a really rotten hand, North would have jumped to 4♥ directly … the Principle of Fast Arrival at work. Both players flirted with slam but subsided in 4♥. We’d say that this was a pretty good auction to the correct spot.
Sad to say, the odds against slam actually makes. The ♠QT are both onside and the 25% (at best) slam rolls home.
Over 2♦, there is no convenient way for South to bid her nice 5-card Heart suit, and she does better just to make the value bid of 2NT. This gets N-S to the right spot in a hurry.
If West lead a Club, then Declarer will be held to 10 tricks. But the Heart Four seems more normal, and this lead will put East to the test. If he inserts the 7, it’ll be just 10 tricks … if he squanders the Jack, it’ll be 11 tricks. Difficult choice! If East had a likely entry in one of Declarer’s suits, it would be easier to play the 7, planning to squash the Ten with the Jack on the second round of the suit … but without such an entry, it’s more tempting to fly with the Jack. All we can say here is that, if Partner led a Heart, and you inserted the 7, then you did very well indeed.
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